Griffin Wong previews tonight’s game between the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans with his favorite player prop bets.
After more than eight months off the court because of deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder, Victor Wembanyama returned to the NBA regular season stage with a bang on Wednesday night. He played less than 30 minutes in the San Antonio Spurs 125-92 demolition of the Dallas Mavericks but still dropped 40 points, snagged 15 rebounds, and swatted three shots without committing a turnover. Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, and Dereck Lively II are good defenders, but none of them had an answer for Wemby.
San Antonio will have a chance to improve to 2-0 tonight with an 8:10 p.m. ET clash against Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. Despite New Orleans’ poor record last season, the matchup carries plenty of intrigue because Williamson was arguably the last prospect before Wembanyama to earn the “generational talent” label.
The Spurs are 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-192 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 233.5. The Pelicans are +160 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll take you through my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s clash, starting — of course — with San Antonio’s gargantuan big man.
Victor Wembanyama 45+ Points + Rebounds (+158)
The French phenom probably won’t have a 40-point, 15-board stat line again, given the rarity of such a feat, but New Orleans should be a pretty favorable matchup for him regardless. The highlight reel he compiled on Wednesday night was impressive against any defender, but it was especially striking given that it came against Davis, a three-time block champ and five-time All-Defensive honoree. Needless to say, the rebuilding Pelicans don’t have a defender nearly of Davis’ caliber, and they allowed the fifth-most points and fourth-most rebounds per game last season. They also conceded 128 points and 39 boards in the season-opening defeat to the Memphis Grizzlies.
New Orleans didn’t do much during the offseason to shore up the middle. Signing Kevon Looney, whose 17.9% career rebounding percentage more or less mirrors Wembanyama’s, was a smart move, but Looney will miss the first few weeks of the season with a knee sprain. For now, the Pelicans’ center rotation consists of Yves Missi, who started last season, and rookies Hunter Dickinson and Derik Queen. Of the trio, Dickinson is the only one who’s less than six inches shorter than Wemby, and he only played five minutes on Wednesday. Most of Wembanyama’s interior reps will come against Missi, against whom opponents shot just 0.5 percentage points worse than usual within six feet last season, the 11th-worst defensive mark among the 31 players who played at least 65 games and guarded at least five such shots per game.
Zion Williamson 2+ Steals (-102)
Williamson’s effort against the Grizzlies didn’t make as many headlines as Wembanyama’s against the Mavericks, but he was spectacular, recording 27 points, nine boards, five assists, and five steals on 10-for-21 shooting from the field and seven-for-12 accuracy from the free throw line. When fully healthy, few players have the combination of strength and twitchiness as Williamson does, and he has the ability to impact passing lanes. His knack to find the ball defensively has improved every season of his career, and he had a stretch of five multi-steal games in six late last season. I’m buying his improved physique.
Last season, the Spurs were average with the ball, conceding the 15th-most steals to opponents. However, since both teams play at a slightly above-average pace, the increased tempo should give Williamson a few more chances to swipe one. Plus, San Antonio is entrusting a lot of ball-handling responsibility to relatively untested players in second-year pro Stephon Castle and rookie Dylan Harper while De’Aaron Fox remains out. Castle had five turnovers on Wednesday night while leading the team in touches, and Harper had four giveaways. Historically, Wembanyama has also been too loose with his handle and too optimistic with his passes, and he coughed up a league-high 4.6 turnovers per game in the preseason.
Jordan Poole 3+ Three-Pointers Made (-131)
Wembanyama’s biggest defensive strength arguably isn’t his shot-blocking: it’s his deterrence at the rim. On Wednesday, Dallas was so afraid of his presence that it would pass up on layups in favor of jumpers and floaters, and it managed to score a league-low 26 points in the paint. Those shots weren’t threes — the Mavericks went just nine-for-21 from long range — but with an ultra-big lineup featuring the six-foot-nine Cooper Flagg at point guard, they don’t exactly have the ideal personnel to fire away from deep. If Wembanyama can erase the paint, the next-most efficient shot is a triple, and prior to his injury last season, the Spurs allowed the 10th-most three point attempts per game.
Poole, New Orleans’ most notable summer acquisition, went three-for-seven (42.9%) from deep against a Memphis team that features a similarly voracious paint presence in former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr., who ultimately wound up with six blocks. The Pelicans’ lineup also features multiple non-shooters in Williamson and Missi, putting all the long-range scoring onus on Poole. That level of shooting responsibility is nothing new for the 26-year-old, who canned three or more triples in 46 of his 68 games last season for the rebuilding Washington Wizards.
