Lansing — A series of Democratic victories in key races across the country Tuesday sparked optimism among Democrats in Michigan, at the start of a pivotal election year in the battleground state.
State Rep. Penelope Tsernoglou, chairwoman of Michigan House Democrats’ campaign committee, said the results of the 2025 elections in places like Virginia and New Jersey showed that people aren’t happy with the Republican Party’s leadership.
“It’s definitely a great sign that Dems are having wins nationally, and I think we can expect the same in Michigan year,” Tsernoglou of East Lansing said.
But Republicans said the fundraising and candidate dynamics that played out in campaigns this year wouldn’t necessarily mirror the details and options facing voters in Michigan on Election Day, Nov. 3, 2026.
Jason Cabel Roe, a Republican political consultant from Oakland County, said people shouldn’t read too much into Tuesday’s results. Democrats had a good night, but many of the victories came in Democratic-heavy areas, Roe said.
“Republicans better have a plan on how to deal with inflation and health care,” Roe added of the lessons from the off-year the election. “Absent that, I think we’re going to have real problems.”
On Tuesday, Virginia voters elected Democrat Abigail Spanberger as their state’s next governor. She defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by about 14 percentage points, 57%-43%. New Jersey voters chose Democrat Mikie Sherrill as their governor. She beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli by about 13 points, 56%-43%.
Both Republican candidates underperformed the vote percentage that GOP President Donald Trump captured in Virginia and New Jersey in 2024.
Democrats also made gains in the Mississippi Legislature, after a court-ordered redistricting, according to Mississippi Public Broadcasting, and on Georgia’s statewide Public Service Commission, which the Atlanta Journal-Constitution described as a “genuine Democratic breakthrough.”
The results were being closely watched by candidates and consultants in Michigan as potential early indicators of the playing field for next November, when Michigan voters will elect a new governor, a new attorney general, a new secretary of state and a new U.S. senator. Michigan voters will also choose candidates to fill every seat in the state Legislature, where Democrats will try to defend a majority in the Senate and Republicans will attempt to keep control of the House.
In a Wednesday post on X, Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who’s running for the U.S. Senate in Michigan next year, criticized Democrats’ wins, calling the newly elected mayor of New York City, Democrat Zohran Mamdani, a communist.
“Let me get this straight … 12 months ago, deep blue states and NYC voted for Kamala Harris,” Rogers wrote. “Yesterday, in a total rebuke of the ‘old guard’ establishment, their base moved even further to the left.”
Rogers narrowly lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin of Holly in Michigan’s 2024 U.S. Senate election. Rogers is hoping for a different outcome in 2026, running for a seat that’s open after U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, decided not to seek reelection.
Tuesday’s results were exciting for Michigan Democrats, acknowledged John Sellek, who previously worked for Republicans and is CEO of the consulting firm Harbor Strategic Public Affairs.
But Sellek noted that Michigan voters traditionally give one party the governor’s office for eight years and then switch their ballots to the other party. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s second and final term will conclude at the end of 2026.
The issues in the election will be affordability and the economy, Sellek said.
“Democrats were smart to run on those issues, even if they were promising pie-in-the-sky solutions in some instances, as Mamdani did,” Sellek said. “But the GOP typically holds an upper hand with voters on the economy and has a much better chance to make its case in 2026 on that issue than what was happening in 2022.”
In Michigan’s 2022 election — the most recent gubernatorial campaign in the state — abortion rights became one of the dominant issues, as voters considered a ballot proposal on the subject after a conservative U.S. Supreme Court overturned decades of legal access to the procedure.
Michael Radtke, a Democratic political consultant who was reelected Tuesday as a member of the Sterling Heights City Council, said this week’s results should serve as a “wake-up call” for Trump’s White House.
Democrats have enthusiasm on their side and are displaying a big tent approach with moderate candidates like Spanberger and progressives like Mamdani both winning, Radtke said.
“Voters are craving change,” Radtke said.
Similarly, Adrian Hemond, who previously worked for Democrats and is CEO of the consulting firm Grassroots Midwest, said typically, the off-year election shows signs of what’s to come in the mid-term election. And the mid-term elections are often bad for the party that holds the presidency, Hemond said.
“The economy sucks right now,” Hemond said. “And it looks like it’s getting worse.”
If the economy continues to struggle, Hemond said, “I expect Democrats to do pretty well.”
In 2024, Democrats had to swim against the tide of an unpopular president, Joe Biden, Hemond said. Now, Republicans have to swim against the tide of the economy.
Republican candidates should focus on how to lower costs for Americans, Hemond advised.
As Tuesday’s results began to roll in, six of the seven Republican candidates to be Michigan’s next governor were participating in a debate, organized by the Michigan Republican Party, at a banquet hall in Roseville.
They were asked at one point if Trump’s tariffs on products made outside the U.S. and concerns about inflation posed a risk to Republican candidates’ chances next year.
Former House Speaker Tom Leonard of DeWitt said those factors didn’t pose a risk and predicted thousands of manufacturing jobs would return to the U.S. And state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt of Porter Township responded to the question by saying, “Thank God President Trump won Michigan last year. And thank God he’s president.”
cmauger@detroitnews.com
