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Prime Minister Mark Carney looks to the opposition benches as he rises during Question Period on Wednesday.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Prime Minister Mark Carney will lay out his government’s priorities for the Nov. 4 budget in a Wednesday evening speech to students, after meeting separately with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet about their priorities.
The meetings with opposition leaders are taking place a day after Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon said he was worried the opposition parties could trigger a federal election by making impossible budget demands.
The minority Liberal government is three votes short of a majority, meaning it will need MPs from other parties to either vote with it or abstain in order to avoid an election on confidence matters such as the budget.
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A source familiar with the Prime Minister’s speech told The Globe and Mail that Mr. Carney’s budget-focused speech will pledge to significantly increase non-U.S. exports over the next decade, and will state that the budget will include Canada’s new immigration plan and a talent-attraction strategy. It will also include details about a new “Climate Competitiveness Strategy” and restate the government’s plan to “spend less to invest more.”
The Globe and Mail is not identifying the source, who was not authorized to comment on the matter.
Mr. Poilievre released an open letter Monday that said the budget should keep the deficit under $42-billion, in reference to the government’s deficit projection that was announced in the December, 2024, fiscal update. He also said it should reduce taxes on income, capital gains, the industrial carbon tax and “homebuilding taxes” and should eliminate various taxes related to packaging, fertilizer and farm equipment that he calls “hidden taxes on food.”
Mr. MacKinnon dismissed the Conservative demands as “ludicrous” and said Wednesday that Mr. Poilievre’s references to taxes on food are imaginary.
Mr. Carney’s speech is scheduled be delivered at 7:30 p.m. ET. He met with Mr. Poilievre for about half an hour at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Following the meeting, Mr. Poilievre described his proposals as “very reasonable.”
“My message is it’s time to reverse course on the costly decade of deficit spending that has given us more expensive food and housing,” he said. “So if the Prime Minister is serious about making Canada a more affordable country, then he needs to bring forward an affordable budget.”
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Mr. Blanchet told reporters he met with Mr. Carney earlier in the day. He said the Bloc’s budget demands are well known and could be funded by removing federal subsidies for the oil and gas sector.
“It’s their responsibility to find somebody to vote with them, and only theirs,” he said.
Randall Bartlett, Desjardins’ deputy chief economist, released a detailed report Wednesday that lays out expectations ahead of the budget.
“While it’s difficult to know exactly how big the planned deficits will be, announced spending and tax cuts make clear that they will be among the largest in recent memory as a share of GDP outside of a recession or pandemic,” he wrote.
The Desjardins report said the deficit for the current fiscal year could exceed $70-billion, which is similar to an estimate released last month by the Parliamentary Budget Officer. The C.D. Howe Institute said this year’s deficit could be more than $92-billion.
Mr. Bartlett projects the federal net debt-to-GDP – a key metric of a government’s fiscal health – will rise steadily over the coming decade.
“While a debt downgrade isn’t imminent, Canada’s AAA status shouldn’t be taken for granted,” he wrote.
The federal debt-to-GDP ratio spiked to 47.2 per cent from 31.2 per cent during the COVID-19 pandemic. It improved to 42.1 per cent for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
The government’s December, 2024, fiscal update had projected that the debt-to-GDP ratio would decline slightly each year.
With a report from Stephanie Levitz
