Tonight, the Portland Trail Blazers travel to Orlando to take on the middling Magic. Fresh off a hard-fought loss to the Miami Heat, the Blazers hope to leave Florida on a high note.
Last season, the NBA zeitgeist crowned the Orlando Magic the next big thing. Brick-wall defenders, exceptional length and athleticism, and the offensive prowess of both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner had pundits predicting a top-four finish this season. However, through the first nine games of the 2025-2026 season, the Magic have largely disappointed.
The Magic made a big splash this offseason, trading Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, and four first-round picks for Grizzlies sharpshooter Desmond Bane. The thought process behind this trade was rather simple: “We can’t shoot. Let’s trade for a guy who is really, really good at shooting.” Not in the calculus was Desmond Bane shooting poorly. To start the season, Bane has hit on only 30% of his three-point attempts. Paolo Banchero has done little to offset his teammates’ slow start, converting on an abysmal 25% of his three-point offerings.
As a team, the Magic rank 18th in three-point percentage at 35.2%. Unfortunately, the Blazers suck even harder at shooting threes, donning the fifth-worst percentage in the league at 33%. If you’re looking for an aesthetically pleasing, offensively-minded duel, you may want to re-watch Game of Thrones. If you’re looking for a rock fight between two young, scrappy up-and-comers, stay tuned.
This matchup is best characterized by the dual Spiderman meme (pictured below): Both squads are young, defensive minded teams with deficiencies from three-point-land. Both teams play with exceptional pace. They have nearly identical defensive ratings. Even more uncanny – between Avdija and Wagner – both offenses rely upon an international-born downhill bruiser with exceptional hair. The differences lie in the margins.
Despite ranking eighth in pace, the Magic rank 28th in FGA per game. The Blazers rank second in both pace and FGA per game. From a purely mathematical perspective, the magnitude of difference between each team’s shooting percentages pales in comparison to the discrepancy of their shooting volumes. If my math is right (please don’t check), the Blazers may be able to nerd their way to victory.
Ultimately, the Blazers must stick to their gameplan of “RUN FAST™.” Speed and a willingness to use their speed is the separator against the bruising Magic.
Portland Trail Blazers (5-4) vs. Orlando Magic (4-5) – Mon. Nov 10th – 4pm Pacific
How to watch via antenna or cable: See your options on the Rip City Television Network.
How to watch via streaming: BlazerVision in Oregon and Washington; League Pass everywhere else
Trail Blazers Injuries: Scoot Henderson, Damian Lillard, Matisse Thybulle, Blake Wesley (out).
Magic Injuries: Mo Wagner (out).
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Desmond Bane’s regression to the mean. Desmond Bane has not shot well to start the season. Historically, though, Desmond Bane shoots very well. For his career, Bane has averaged 40.8% from three on six threes a game. Undoubtedly, his poor shooting will normalize at some point. The Blazers can only hope that this normalization does not occur against them (because no one ever shoots uncharacteristically well against our Blazers).
Bench performances. Against the Miami Heat, Deni Avdija was a +24 in a five point loss. In some ways, that’s more impressive than an actual victory. In others, it isn’t, and sucks really bad. Jerami Grant foul trouble and a general lack of offensive ability from the Blazers’ bench were the standout factors in Saturday’s loss. Role players must provide stability while the starters sit.
Ugly basketball. What happens when two very stoppable objects meet two equally-immovable forces? Probably a lot of missed three pointers. This game is more likely to resemble a mudfight than a ballet. Those are the types of games that the Blazers ought to win, though. They will likely always struggle against high-octane, efficient offenses. However, the Magic play a style of basketball that is vulnerable to the Blazers’ numbers-first approach. Look for a final box score emblematic of the Blazers’ preferred winning formula: “More shot attempts = More wins.”
Donovan Clingan. Donovan Clignan’s resilience will be tested by the Magic. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero like to get downhill as often as possible. Clingan will have to keep his head about him to remain both effective and out of foul trouble.
Back to Back to Back. The Blazers have recently been the beneficiaries of the NBA’s scheduling. Four of their nine games have come against opponents on the second night of a back-to-back. They have not capitalized on these games to the degree that most fans would prefer, splitting those games 2-2. The Magic, also coming off a back-to-back, give the Blazers a renewed opportunity to expose their opponent’s tired legs.
CBS Sports’ James Herbert has choice words for the Magic’s utilization of the newly-acquired Bane, as well as some suggested improvements:
If the Magic are going to turn things around, they need to figure out how to best use their new weapon. They gave up four unprotected first-round picks and a pick swap to acquire him, and they did that because they needed someone like him to open things up offensively. On too many possessions, Bane has been effectively a spectator, standing on the perimeter while a teammate tries to create. Orlando has used him a bit as a screener; it needs to lean into that. The team needs to make better use of his ability to make 3s on the move, too.
Philip Rossman-Reich of Orlando Magic Daily highlights some of the Magic’s growing pains associated with their high-paced play:
Orlando is only 15th in the league with a 114.0 defensive rating in the early part of the season. It is still early enough that one good game can drastically change the team’s ranking and statistics. But the eye test would suggest that pace has a lot to do with the Magic’s struggles.
Orlando is 18th in the league, giving up 0.99 points per possession in the half-court, according to data from Synergy Sports. They were fourth in the league last year, giving up just 0.96 points per possession in the half-court.
It is not merely playing fast that is getting them. The defense needs to improve overall and return to the style the Magic are used to.
