Why Edmonton Oilers rookie Matt Savoie’s offensive struggles aren’t a major concern – The Athletic
A decade ago, the Edmonton Oilers made a gigantic error on the NHL Draft floor. It was the summer of 2015. Then-GM Peter Chiarelli dealt two precious picks in that historically deep draft in exchange for defenceman Griffin Reinhart. The deal, made not long after the selection of Connor McDavid at No. 1, was the first of many devastating trades made by the organization under Chiarelli’s guidance.
Reinhart did not work out, while the picks surrendered were used on an NHL star (Mathew Barzal) and Mitchell Stephens, who has played in 123 NHL games.
There is a danger in dealing for another team’s first-round selection in the years immediately following the draft. Reinhart was an impact player in the WHL (Edmonton Oil Kings), and Oilers scouts knew what he could do at that level. What they didn’t properly recognize was how badly he struggled with the speed of the AHL game in his first pro season in the New York Islanders system. The Islanders were a motivated seller, and the Oilers were working off memories of Reinhart’s WHL seasons.
Once in Edmonton, Reinhart went from Chiarelli’s bet for the future on defence to a player who lost his spot on the depth chart to Darnell Nurse and Brandon Davidson. He was never able to establish himself as an NHL player.
This is not the same situation
Matt Savoie was acquired by the Oilers (for centre Ryan McLeod) in July 2024 from the Buffalo Sabres. He spent most of last season in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors, performing well in all game states. His points per game total in the AHL at 20 (in 2024-25) was 0.82, which compares well to previous Condors at the same age.
PlayerYearPts-Game
2018-19
0.97
2024-25
0.82
2021-22
0.67
2018-19
0.67
2020-21
0.53
2019-20
0.41
All numbers via theAHL.com
Savoie more than held his own among top-flight AHL rookies at 20 over the last decade. He was also the best in the group at even-strength outscoring at age 20. His 55-30 edge gave the Condors a 65 percent even-strength goal share while Savoie was on the ice. Here are the numbers for those same 20-year-old forwards in their rookie seasons.
PlayerYearPct OnPct Off
2018-19
19-6 (76 pct)
165-118 (58 pct)
2024-25
55-30 (65 pct)
132-140 (49 pct)
2018-19
59-33 (64 pct)
125-91 (58 pct)
2020-21
10-9 (53 pct)
92-76 (55 pct)
2019-20
27-27 (50 pct)
92-122 (43 pct)
2021-22
19-21 (48 pct)
152-111 (58 pct)
All numbers via theAHL.com
Savoie and Kailer Yamamoto delivered similar performances at 20, with the major difference coming once each man arrived in the NHL. Yamamoto was inserted on a line that featured Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The young winger caught fire and delivered one of the best mini-seasons by a rookie in recent Oilers history. Savoie is being brought along slowly, as the organization has more capable veterans on hand compared to five seasons ago. When he does get a chance on the top lines, he shows quickness, skill and surprising two-way acumen for such a strong offensive player.
Turned 21
Savoie’s limited opportunities with Edmonton’s top skill centres (McDavid and Draisaitl) has to be considered when looking at his boxcar numbers so far this year. How does he compare to the group above as NHL freshmen? Here are the NHL numbers for each man who played for the Oilers at 21.
PlayerYearPts-Game
2019-20
0.96
2025-26
0.22
2022-23
0.18
2019-20
0.18
2025-26
0.14
2020-21
0.1
2021-22
DNP
All numbers via NHL.com
In the past decade, the Oilers have used exactly one forward as a plug-and-play on a skill line at 21 coming out of the AHL. Yamamoto had a brilliant debut, cut short by the pandemic. Meanwhile, Savoie is in the group behind him, and they are all in the same general area (save Raphael Lavoie). From an offensive point of view, Savoie is about where one would expect based on playing time and lack of a feature role.
Offence from Savoie
When Craig MacTavish coached the Oilers, he would often provide the media with verbal gems that perfectly described a situation. One of those applies to Savoie and all rookie forwards: If an NHL career is a player’s destiny, he has to move the needle offensively.
Savoie started slowly this season, posting just two points in October (both on the power play), and November didn’t start well either. On Wednesday night against the Philadelphia Flyers, Savoie assisted on both Edmonton goals in an overtime victory. The Oilers hope it’s the kind of offensive production MacTavish spoke of a decade ago.
Concern?
Savoie has delivered at every level given the chance, and fans saw his skill on display against the Flyers on Wednesday. That followed up a nice sequence on Monday night versus the Columbus Blue Jackets. Savoie had a Yamamoto-like moment where he intercepted the puck with all skaters heading the other way. Savoie had a clear breakaway (a short one) after capturing the puck, and just missed scoring. His playmaking skills against the Flyers were a key to victory.
Savoie is also earning the coach’s trust with strong, intelligent plays. Savoie has played on the McDavid line for a total of 17 five-on-five minutes over the last two games, helping the line outshoot opponents 12-4. The last two games can be counted as his first real traction with the Oilers during even-strength minutes.
Reasonable expectations
I projected Savoie to post 37 points in 76 games back in August. He’s well off the pace. Savoie’s minutes on the skill lines have been rare (save for the last two games). Zach Hyman is close to a return; chances may dry up completely for Savoie on the skill lines.
Even with that understood, Savoie is doing enough to stay in the lineup. The longer he’s in the game, the more chances he’ll get to score (as was proven against Philadelphia on Wednesday night). The young winger is getting chances, and those opportunities are coming from foot speed, astute decisions, hard work on the backcheck and on-ice awareness.
The players coming out of the AHL who don’t make it often have skating issues (Reinhart, Tyler Benson, Lavoie). Savoie has no such concerns and has been durable (Yamamoto lost much of his early momentum to injury).
There will be games this winter when the young winger doesn’t help offensively and makes defensive miscues. The Oilers need to stay the course with Savoie. He’s a real talent and a smart hockey player. Wednesday night in Philadelphia was a refreshing reminder.
