Among the most contentious proposals are Ukraine handing over its own unoccupied territory and cutting the size of its armed forces.
“Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarised zone.”
Ceding territory where at least a quarter of a million Ukrainians live – the Donetsk “fortress belt” cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka – will not be acceptable to most Ukrainians. Russia has spent well over a year trying to capture the town of Pokrovsk – Ukraine is unlikely to hand over such important strategic hubs without a fight.
“The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.”
Ukraine’s military was estimated last January at 880,000 active personnel, up from 250,000 at the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
While 600,000 might seem a potentially acceptable number in peacetime, that kind of limitation would infringe on Ukrainian sovereignty. It might also be too big a number for Russia to accept.
“Our red lines are clear and unwavering,” Ukrainian representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn told the UN security Council: “There will never be any recognition formal or otherwise of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian. Ukraine will not accept any limits on its rights to self defence or on the size or capabilities of our armed forces.”
The draft also proposes that “Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States”.
In other words Ukraine and other countries would not need to recognise Russian control by law. That could enable Kyiv to accept such phrasing, as it would not impinge on Ukraine’s constitution that says its borders are ” indivisible and inviolable”.
Elsewhere, in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzia, the front lines would be frozen and Russia would relinquish areas it has occupied in other areas.
