“Given the degrading trajectory of our security environment and the growing willingness of regimes to conduct high-harm operations, ASIO assesses there is a realistic possibility a foreign government will attempt to assassinate a perceived dissident in Australia,” Burgess warned.
“This threat is real. We believe there are at least three nations willing and capable of conducting lethal targeting here.”
Burgess did not name the three countries, but said it was possible foreign governments would try to hide assassination attempts by using “criminal cut-outs” as Iran did in its arson attacks on a Jewish synagogue and a kosher deli in Melbourne and Sydney respectively.
People protest against defence companies outside the Indo-Pacific 2025 International Maritime Exposition at Darling Harbour.Credit: Kate Geraghty
“Regimes are operating in a security grey zone using non-traditional tools to interfere in decision-making, promote discord, amplify distrust and spread false narratives in Western democracies,” he said.
“Authoritarian regimes demonstrate a chilling willingness to exploit fault lines in countries they consider hostile.”
Burgess said that “state-sanctioned trolls” – especially from Russia – were trying to sow discord in Australia by attempting to “hijack and inflame legitimate debate”.
“We recently uncovered links between pro-Russian influencers in Australia and an offshore media organisation that almost certainly receives direction from Russian intelligence,” he said.
While the attempts so far have only gained limited traction, he said: “I am deeply concerned about the potential for AI to take online radicalisation and disinformation to entirely new levels.”
Burgess said that war in Gaza had not directly inspired terrorism in Australia, but it “prompted protest, exacerbated tension, undermined social cohesion and elevated intolerance”.
Since the October 7 attacks of 2023, Burgess said the nation had seen “a notable uptick in intentionally disruptive and damaging tactics by anti-Israel activists, including multiple acts of arson, vandalism and violent protest against defence companies accused of supplying weapon components”.
He referred to a group posting a video threatening “consequences” for the employees of an unnamed business.
“Every worker in this supply chain is complicit,” the video stated. “We will decide your fate as you have decided the fate of millions … We have been closely watching you. We have your addresses. Stop arming ‘israel’ [sic] or else…”
Meanwhile, he said that neo-Nazis had used anti-immigration rallies to raise their profile and fuel grievance in Australia.
While the National Socialist Network has not engaged in terrorism, Burgess said: “I remain deeply concerned by its hateful, divisive rhetoric and increasingly violent propaganda, and the growing likelihood these things will prompt spontaneous violence, particularly in response to perceived provocation.”
Burgess said he was also worried about Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir, which infiltrated the university encampment and pro-Palestine movements, as this masthead reported last year.
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Hizb ut-Tahrir is listed as a terror group in the United Kingdom but not in Australia.
Burgess said he fears the group’s “anti-Israel rhetoric is fuelling and normalising wider antisemitic narratives”, adding that its “provocative behaviour, offensive rhetoric and insidious strategy are very similar to the tactics of the National Socialist Network”.
“The organisation’s condemnation of Israel and Jews attracts media attention and aids recruitment, but it deliberately stops short of promoting onshore acts of politically motivated violence,” he said.
