The Houston Astros made a bold decision last December by trading their All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs. Houston netted a solid return, but at the time, most MLB experts and pundits questioned the Astros’ commitment to win in 2025.
While Houston’s efforts to return the postseason ultimately came up short last season, most fans see the trade as a net positive. Yes, relinquishing a top tier player is always risky, but the Astros were able to build for the present (Isaac Paredes) and the future (Cam Smith) and only really lost one year of Tucker’s services.
The Cubs are sure to apply a qualifying offer to Tucker’s impending free agency, but that’s hardly enough to stop any number of determined contenders from chasing the four-time All-Star this winter. A recent contract projection, however, reveals exactly why Houston chose to cut bait, and why an extension was never going to be in the cards.
Kyle Tucker prediction reveals that the Astros did the right thing
Former Major League GM Jim Bowden, now a contributor for The Athletic (subscription required) recently released a list of the players who he believes are among the top 50 free agents heading into the offseason. Unsurprisingly, Tucker ranks No. 1. As such, the former Astros outfielder is likely to take home the biggest paycheck this offseason. The number that Bowden is forcasting, however, will cause the Houston faithful to do a double-take.
According to Bowden, Tucker could land a contract in the neighborhood of 10-years and $427 million. That is an outrageous number, especially for a player who’s struggled to stay on the field the past two seasons. Tucker appeared in just 78 games for the Astros a season ago, and logged 136 appearances in 2025. One could argue that Tucker should’ve played even fewer games this past season, as he was dealing with a nagging injury for the better part of a month.
No one in their right mind is going to deny Tucker’s talent, and at just 28 years old, handing out a 10-year deal doesn’t seem to an off-the-wall idea. But an average annual value (AAV) of $42.7 million? That blows past the deal that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed ($35.7 million AAV) this past season. Bowden assumes that the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants will all be players for Tucker’s services.
Obviously this is pure speculation on Bowden’s part, though he is familiar with the inner workings of a front office and still has plenty of friends in high places. One thing’s for sure, however, the Astros were right to move on when they did, and by securing both Paredes and Smith, have already set themselves up well for next season.
