This is a pivotal time for the Minnesota Vikings. The team’s decision-makers must see what they have in young quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who is returning Sunday after missing five games with a high-ankle sprain.
It’s a big spot to be thrust into. Not only is he returning to Michigan, where he won a national championship, but also he’s going to be at the helm of a reeling team. The Lions are a formidable opponent. They’re emerging from a bye week, which gave them extra time for preparation. McCarthy must play smart — another injury is the worst-case scenario — but he also must cut it loose.
What should we expect for this NFC North matchup? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.
What I’m watching
Lewis: How quickly McCarthy gets the ball out of his hands. Can he play on time? Can he play within the rhythm of the offense? Acclimating to NFL speed isn’t easy, and it’s foolish to expect a player to do so immediately. McCarthy has played two games. Patience is still required.
He has to show growth in this area, sooner rather than later, and it’s partially why head coach Kevin O’Connell has spent time in recent weeks highlighting the work on McCarthy’s lower-body mechanics. The more efficient his drops and footwork, the more likely he is to stay on schedule.
Accuracy into tight-window throws is an entirely different (but relevant) conversation. Among quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks, only Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears had a slower average time to throw than McCarthy. He must dispose of the ball. Perhaps the Vikings can dial up a quick game to force his hand. Getting the ball out quickly will be paramount for him to not only avoid taking sacks that doom drives, but also to stay away from hits that jeopardize his long-term availability.
Krawczynski: Brian Flores’s game plan. He has rightfully been hailed as one of the best assistant coaches in the league, a mastermind who deploys his troops in schemes that play tricks on quarterbacks and cause offensive coordinators to lose sleep. With Andrew Van Ginkel injured and Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave largely ineffective, Flores is being challenged more than ever to find buttons to push to get this defense back to being an effective unit.
He needs to find a way to generate turnovers, get pressure on Jared Goff and keep the Lions from running all over the Vikings. It’s a gargantuan task. The Vikings’ defense has looked all too ordinary for most of this season. Flores is anything but an ordinary defensive mind. What he does to combat a talent-laden Lions offense is of the utmost importance.
Biggest concerns
Lewis: Jahmyr Gibbs. If you’re reading this, you know. You understand that there are few talents, in a league full of them, capable of torpedoing a game like this guy. He’s a jitterbug. Here, then there, then goodbye. To the house, he will go. If he reaches the third level of the defense, it is over. Sayonara.
Further complicating this challenge is that the Vikings’ run defense has been abysmal. Minnesota ranks 27th in success rate against the run, 22nd in EPA per rush and 15th in DVOA. The problems range.
The interior hasn’t been able to hold the point of attack well enough, and the linebackers haven’t flowed to the football effectively enough. Bijan Robinson torched them, but Kenneth Gainwell and Quinshon Judkins and Kimani Vidal have had their way, too. Gibbs may be the toughest test of them all. For the Vikings to have any chance, they must keep Gibbs from taking over the game.
Krawczynski: That this season is slipping away. The defense is faltering, the offensive line is a mess, and no one knows what McCarthy is going to do. The Lions are the new standard in the division, and the Vikings suddenly have the feel of an organization that is flailing a bit. One or two wins can turn things around quickly in a league where so much importance is put on each performance. But this team is hard to watch right now.
Lamar Jackson has returned from injury in Baltimore. The Bears are showing signs of life under Ben Johnson. The Packers seem to be finding their groove. The Sam Darnold revenge game looms at the end of November. This is a very thorny path forward for the Vikings over the next month. If they don’t figure something out, it could get ugly quickly.
Most interesting matchup
Lewis: The Vikings’ pass protection versus the Lions’ pass rush. Keeping McCarthy comfortable is going to require an all-11 effort, as cliché as that may sound. Tight end T.J. Hockenson must chip Aidan Hutchinson effectively. Running backs Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason must take it to Alex Anzalone when he’s blitzing. The interior of the offensive line must manage Alim McNeill, who returned last week from a torn ACL and looked every bit like the player the Lions paid $55 million in guaranteed money.
Having 4/5 of the offensive line healthy for an entire game would be a boon. The Vikings still cannot take the rest of Detroit’s pass rush lightly. Defensive backs Brian Branch and Arthur Maulet can cause problems. Edge rusher Al-Quadin Muhammad has had a fascinatingly good season. The Lions have utilized twists and stunts versus the Vikings in past years, and they have not been afraid to send the house. The Vikings must be ready for that.
Krawczynski: Jonathan Greenard and Van Ginkel versus the Lions’ offensive line. Van Ginkel has not played since Week 3 because of a neck injury. His return to practice this week was somewhat surprising, but not a moment too soon. Greenard is dealing with an ankle injury but will be in the lineup. He has only two sacks this season, but Van Ginkel’s absence could have something to do with that.
Opponents have been able to put more attention toward Greenard without having to worry about Van Ginkel, especially since Dallas Turner has not taken the leap the team hoped to see. The Vikings desperately need to turn up the heat on Goff this week. Getting Greenard going would go a long way toward easing the burden on the defensive backfield.
Most interesting overall storyline
Lewis: I’m going to go with something less about the big picture and more about this matchup. The Vikings haven’t beaten the Lions since September 2022. They’ve lost five straight. Turnovers have been a primary issue. Detroit is plus-five in the turnover margin in the six games between O’Connell and Lions head coach Dan Campbell.
Offensively, Minnesota has been explosive in the passing game but unable to run the ball with any sustainable efficiency. Defensively, the Lions have had trouble on the ground, but they’re averaging a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt. All of this is to say: The Lions have had the Vikings’ number.
Going into Detroit and snatching a victory, given the circumstances, would be an energy boost bordering on rocket-propulsion levels. It’s not easy to find the path, but a win would go a long way toward altering the NFC North dynamics in a meaningful way.
Krawczynski: McCarthy’s second go-around. There has been so much analysis and speculation about the young quarterback during his absence. The panic around him, frankly, has been puzzling. He has barely played to this point. We knew he was going to need time to get his bearings.
If he can’t stay healthy, that’s a big problem. But I do think he deserves a good, long run of starts here as the season goes along to truly evaluate his present and future. Another injury would be devastating to that process. But I don’t know how anyone could say with any certainty that he is or isn’t the right man for the job. There just has not been enough of a sample yet. Maybe that starts now.
How these teams match up from a data standpoint
Here is where each team ranks in 2025 in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule:
Vikings
Lions
Off turnovers
25th
5th
Def turnovers
16th
5th
Off explosiveness
11th
13th
Def explosiveness
24th
12th
Off efficiency
12th
14th
Def efficiency
19th
3rd
Strength of schedule
29th
17th
Predictions
Lewis: Lions 31, Vikings 20. There is a part of me that thinks this will be closer than most expect. Maybe Goff throws a couple of picks. Maybe Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison breaks loose in the Lions’ secondary. As long as McCarthy emerges healthy, the result will be palatable. One team is just clicking more than the other.
Krawczynski: Lions 34, Vikings 17. Van Ginkel’s return offers some hope, but this feels like two teams going in opposite directions. This is a hell of a test for a young quarterback coming back from an extended absence, and Gibbs is surely frothing at the mouth. Not a good combination.
