Democrats currently have a slim majority in Virginia’s House of Delegates, and two competitive Northern Virginia races could help determine which party controls that chamber.
Democrats currently have a slim majority in Virginia’s House of Delegates, and two competitive Northern Virginia races could help determine which party controls that chamber of the state’s General Assembly.
Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, said the House of Delegates majority is “going to be determined by the outcome in these outer ring suburban communities.”
That includes districts in places such as Chesterfield County and Hampton Roads, Farnsworth said, and two districts in Prince William County.
Currently in the House of Delegates, Democrats hold a 51-48 majority, with one open seat.
In House District 21, the incumbent, Democrat Del. Josh Thomas is facing Republican challenger Gregory Lee Gorham. Gorham worked in information technology, and Thomas is a lawyer who served with the U.S. Marine Corps.
That district, Farnsworth said, is “drawn to be relatively competitive, but there is a huge financial challenge for a challenger in this race, and that creates a difficult environment to be heard, particularly in the very national politics-dominated conversation that’s been going on in Virginia this year.”
Meanwhile, in House District 22, Republican incumbent Ian Lovejoy is facing Democrat Elizabeth Guzman. Lovejoy is a former Manassas City Council member, and Guzman is a former state delegate.
House District 22, “in an ordinary election, would be more favorable to Republicans, just in terms of where the lines are drawn,” Farnsworth said. But Guzman “has won a number of elections in Prince William County” and has an established national donor network.
The Virginia Public Access Project describes the House of Delegates races in both district as competitive.
David Ramadan, a former member of Virginia’s House and a professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, said in District 21, he expects Thomas, the incumbent, to win his seat again.
Thomas raised $1.2 million and Gorham raised $21,000 for their campaigns, Ramadan said.
“There’s been no spending in this race by the caucuses or the parties,” Ramadan said. “Therefore, this is a no contest.”
However, Ramadan described the District 22 race as a “battleground.”
“If Democrats, overall, have that 10-12% on top of the ticket, then Guzman wins the seat,” Ramadan said. “If this is a lower margin on top, then Ian Lovejoy has a chance of keeping his seat.”
Data centers have been at the forefront of the issues candidates in those two races have discussed frequently.
“Data centers are toxic in Prince William, as they are in Loudoun. Ten years ago, they used to be the darling of any candidate because they were good, at least they had good PR, and people wanted them,” Ramadan said. “Today, data centers in Northern Virginia, specifically in Prince William and Loudoun, are absolutely toxic.”
Broadly, turnout in Northern Virginia is one of the key things to monitor, Farnsworth said.
“There is a tradition in Virginia of angry voters showing up to protest the presidential election through this governor’s vote, and this year, that may be more intense than normal,” Farnsworth said. “Because a lot of federal workers, now a month into the shutdown, or former federal workers who were impacted by the Trump administration cutbacks, may be inclined to participate in great numbers.”
In many election cycles in Virginia, Farnsworth said there’s a lot of time spent discussing what’s happening in and the future of the state. In this cycle, though, he said “it does seem like all politics are national.”
The key challenge for Republicans in competitive state races is “how to present yourself in a way that can speak to voters who are not reflexively Republican,” Farnsworth said.
“The environment is unfavorable for Republican candidates because of the actions of the Trump administration, and that’s a big challenge for Republicans,” he added. “The conversation on the Republican side is how to draw attention to the issues you want to emphasize about the future of Virginia. That’s a challenge, particularly when you look at the Democratic fundraising advantages.”
Get breaking news and daily headlines delivered to your email inbox by signing up here.
© 2025 WTOP. All Rights Reserved. This website is not intended for users located within the European Economic Area.
