The College Football Playoff selection committee is ready to reveal the first glimpse at what January’s 12-team postseason could look like based on the first two months of regular season action.
The initial playoff rankings is set to be unveiled Tuesday night, roughly 72 hours after Utah secured its best win of the season in a 45-14 blowout over a red-hot Cincinnati squad that hadn’t lost since Week 1.
Whether their seventh victory by 25 or more points gets them an early nod from the committee remains to be seen, though it’s safe to assume the Utes (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) have more work in front of them if they’re to clinch a spot on the playoff bracket before the final rankings release on Dec. 7.
Before examining the Utes’ résumé, consider what exactly goes into the selection process and how the 12 postseason teams are judged:
That means certain elements of a team’s résumé — such as its rankings in the Associated Press Top 25 poll or its efficiency margins — are not considered by the committee to be relevant in determining which teams should qualify for the playoff.
The playoff will feature a dozen teams with the five highest-ranked conference champions earning automatic bids. If fewer than five conference champions are among the committee’s top 25 on selection day, then the committee will rank the remaining conference champions. The highest ranked will be added to the playoff until five conference champions are included in the playoff.
As the committee prepares to unveil its first top 25 order, here’s a look at how the Utes’ résumé shakes out:
Rankings based on ESPN FPI
What it all means
While the Utes have taken care of business for the most part, their strength of schedule doesn’t necessarily benefit their at-large bid aspirations. It’s not uncommon for the top teams in the country to face lighter competition with a few big-time showdowns in conference play sprinkled in for good measure. But even then, Utah has the second-worst strength of schedule among the top 25 teams ranked on ESPN FPI, behind only Texas Tech (No. 58).
For reference, the at-large playoff team with the worst strength of schedule ranking last season was SMU (No. 41). Indiana (No. 35) was the next-worst. The other non-conference champions to get in (Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee) all had a strength of schedule that ranked no worse than No. 16.
To be clear, FPI rankings don’t matter to the committee, much like the AP poll. Still, its algorithm can be used as a valid measurement to determine how difficult a team’s schedule has been and will be for the last month of the regular season.
The Utes will need help from other teams around the league if they’re to sneak into the Big 12 championship game, but the path to an automatic bid into the playoff for Kyle Whittingham and company exists nonetheless.
All Utah can really focus on, though, is taking care of its own business down the stretch of the regular season.
The Utes’ last three games of November are at Baylor (Nov. 15), home against Kansas State (Nov. 22) and at Kansas (Nov. 28). For what it’s worth, FPI gives Utah the best chance of any Big 12 team to win out (44.6%).
If Utah does what ESPN’s algorithm believes can happen, the Utes will have done all they can do toward clinching a spot in the Big 12 title game on Dec. 6. But their path will need to be cleared by other teams around the league in order for that to come to fruition.
Prediction: Utah gets placed at No. 15 in the first CFP rankings, similar to its AP poll position (No. 17) but not the same as the committee slightly varies from the media’s perception of the top 25 teams.
MORE UTAH NEWS & ANALYSIS
