Politicians have long pointed to off-cycle election results as an indicator of the national mood, but this year, their significance will be even more pronounced says a Cornell University expert.
David Bateman, professor of government and policy at Cornell University, says that if Trump alies exceed expectations tomorrow, despite his disapproval ratings, it will be a sign that Republicans can still benefit from Democrats’ continued unpopularity.
Bateman says: “Even before polling research, politicians have looked to off-cycle elections for evidence of the public mood. Their significance is even more pronounced today, given unique features of Trump’s presumed support and the increased difficulties of polling. Trump’s narrow election win and poor polling have been accompanied by a transformation of government so extreme it calls into question whether the US will remain a democratic regime.
“Civil society has acted as though there was a mandate for such a massive transformation, based on a wide-spread belief that polls underestimate Trump’s support but accurately capture the unpopularity of the opposition Democratic party. Off-cycle elections provide a focal point for testing these beliefs against reality.
“It is likely the Democratic front-runners in NJ, VA, and NYC will win. If they don’t, or if they fall below expectations, this will be a sign that however unpopular Trump remains, his explicit or implicit allies (Cuomo, Ciattarelli, Earle-Sears) are able to benefit from the Democrats’ continued unpopularity. If Democratic front-runners meet their expectations, or even outperform them, it will provide additional data points that the radical transformation of the US regime lacks public support.”
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