Futu Morning Brief | GTC Conference Ignites Tech Stock Rally, NVIDIA’s Market Cap Approaches $5 Trillion, Major U.S. Indices Hit New Highs! Microsoft and OpenAI Announce New Agreement to Support OpenAI’s Capital Restructuring; Trump to Attend Trade

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U.S.-Japan Summit: Agreement Specifies Promotion of Japan’s Implementation of a $5.5 Trillion Investment Plan in the U.S.

On the morning of the 28th local time, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takachi met with U.S. President Donald Trump, who is visiting Japan, at the Akasaka Palace in Tokyo. Media reports stated that the two immediately engaged in “mutual praise” upon meeting – Trump thanked Japan for “investing heavily in the United States,” and Takachi described U.S.-Japan relations as having “entered a golden age.”

On the same day, the two parties signed two agreements, focusing on trade investment and the security of critical mineral supply chains. The first agreement specifies that both sides will promote the implementation of Japan’s $5.5 trillion investment plan in the United States, concentrating on areas such as energy, AI, and critical minerals, serving as one of the core components of the July trade agreement. Previously, in July, the U.S. and Japan reached an agreement on tariff issues, with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on Japan, lower than Trump’s earlier threat of 25%.

The second agreement focuses on cooperation in the mining and processing of rare earths and other critical minerals, aiming to ensure supply chain security and reduce reliance on single sources. The framework of the agreement emphasizes that both sides will jointly promote the development and utilization of mineral resources, supporting relevant technological innovation and the improvement of industrial chains.

Trump Travels to South Korea for $3.5 Trillion Trade Negotiations, Expected to Sign Cooperation Agreements on Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, and 6G

U.S. President Donald Trump met with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to finalize a $3.5 trillion investment commitment, which forms the core of the U.S.-South Korea trade agreement. Key details such as the investment structure, timeline, and profit-sharing remain undetermined. The agreement sets a 15% cap on U.S. tariffs on South Korean goods, putting South Korean automakers at a disadvantage until final details are confirmed. Recent U.S. immigration enforcement actions have complicated labor mobility for South Korean companies investing in electric vehicles, semiconductors, and shipbuilding projects. Trump plans to ease entry restrictions for skilled workers. The two countries are also expected to sign a cooperation agreement on artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 6G technology.

The CPC Central Committee’s Proposal for Formulating the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development

Suggestions for the ’15th Five-Year Plan’: Proactively lay out future industries, explore diverse technological routes, typical application scenarios, viable business models, and market regulatory rules, promoting quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications as new drivers of economic growth. Improve the new national system, adopt extraordinary measures, and drive decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies across the entire chain in key areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing.

OpenAI: Total AI Infrastructure Investment Approximately $1.4 Trillion; Considering Funding Needs, IPO Remains a Possible Option

OpenAI CEO Altman stated that the company’s total commitment to infrastructure construction slightly exceeds 30 gigawatts, with a total investment of approximately $1.4 trillion. The company’s vision is to build infrastructure factories capable of producing one gigawatt of computing power per week and aims to significantly reduce the cost of AI computing power to approximately $20 billion per gigawatt over a five-year lifecycle. Considering the funding requirements we will face, it is reasonable to infer that an initial public offering (IPO) is the most likely path forward.

The U.S. government shutdown continues, disrupting key economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.

On October 28 local time, the U.S. Senate again failed to pass a procedural vote with 54 votes against 45, advancing the Fiscal Year 2025 Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act aimed at ending the government shutdown. The U.S. government closure has restricted the Federal Reserve’s access to new economic data, leaving officials to consider whether to cut interest rates or maintain them. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) have suspended most operations, delaying the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), monthly employment report, and retail sales data. The September CPI data, released on October 24, was completed before the government shutdown, but uncertainty remains regarding the October data collection.

Barclays economists noted that the BLS could use retailer website prices, “estimates,” or retrospective surveys to fill the gaps. Morgan Stanley expects employment surveys to remain largely reliable, while retail sales data will be minimally affected by mail and online submissions. Private companies such as ADP, Indeed, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Revelio Labs, The Carlyle Group, and Bank of America have provided alternative labor market estimates. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that these alternative data confirm weakening in the labor market, influencing interest rate decisions.

Ray Dalio warned that a loosening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could trigger a bubble in the artificial intelligence market.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that large U.S. technology stocks linked to the artificial intelligence boom may be forming a bubble, which is unlikely to burst unless the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. Speaking at the Riyadh Future Investment Initiative, Dalio said his personal “bubble indicator” is currently at a high level. He pointed out that 80% of recent market gains are concentrated in large technology stocks, while the broader market performance has been relatively weak. Dalio emphasized the current state of a “two-part economy,” where monetary easing supports fragile sectors, making an AI-driven bubble likely to persist.

Cathie Wood, known as “Wooden Lady,” refutes concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble while cautioning that AI valuations may face a “reality check.”

Cathie Wood rebutted concerns about a bubble in artificial intelligence (AI) on Tuesday while acknowledging that AI valuations could face a “reality check.” As interest rates begin to rise, markets will experience volatility. Over the next year, a turning point will emerge, shifting market discussions from declining interest rates to rising rates. She added that, in the long term, valuations of large technology companies are reasonable. “I’m not saying the stock market will never see a pullback. Clearly, pullbacks will happen. But if our AI expectations are correct, we are at the beginning of a technological revolution.”

JPMorgan predicts the Federal Reserve will restart 2019 liquidity measures amid market pressures.

JPMorgan strategists expect the Federal Reserve to conclude its quantitative tightening (QT) policy this week, halting further reductions to its $6.6 trillion balance sheet of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Despite the end of QT, funding pressures are expected to persist, particularly around Treasury settlement dates and quarter-end periods. The Federal Reserve may implement temporary open market operations and lower the standing repo facility rate to ease short-term liquidity pressures. JPMorgan forecasts that starting in early 2026, the Fed will purchase approximately $8 billion in U.S. Treasuries monthly to rebuild reserves. Rising interbank rates indicate that reserves remain insufficient despite some capital outflows.

A U.S. judge extended the injunction against large-scale layoffs by the Trump administration during the government shutdown.

On October 28 local time, a US federal judge further blocked the Trump administration’s plan to lay off thousands of federal employees during the nearly month-long partial government shutdown. At a hearing held in San Francisco, US District Judge Susan Illston extended a previous temporary ruling that prohibited nearly 40 federal agencies from implementing layoffs before the outcome of legal proceedings initiated by unions representing federal employees was determined. Previously, on October 15, a federal judge in San Francisco ordered that the Trump administration must immediately halt layoffs during the government shutdown.

Amid easing trade tensions, gold prices fell again as gold ETFs recorded their largest single-day reduction in holdings in six months on Monday.

On Tuesday, gold prices fell below $3,960 per ounce, extending declines from the previous trading session. The easing of trade tensions weakened demand for safe-haven assets. Gold ETFs reduced holdings by 448,706 ounces (approximately $1.79 billion) on Monday, marking the largest single-day reduction in six months.

U.S. Stock Market Recap

Microsoft and OpenAI have finalized a new cooperation agreement, while NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang made optimistic remarks and announced multiple partnerships. The fervent enthusiasm for AI has driven the three major U.S. stock indexes to new highs once again. Nevertheless, the majority of constituent stocks actually declined. The upward movement was entirely reliant on the pull from a few tech giants such as Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Apple, with small-cap stocks also notably lagging behind. The market is now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week.

The S&P 500 Index rose 15.73 points, or 0.23%, to close at 6,890.89, continuing to set a record closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 161.78 points, or 0.34%, to close at 47,706.37, also setting a record closing high. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 190.037 points, or 0.80%, to close at 23,827.493, continuing to reach a record closing high.

Tech stocks performed strongly overall, with NVIDIA rising about 5% to a new high, bringing its total market capitalization close to $5 trillion. Both Microsoft and Apple briefly surpassed the $4 trillion market cap milestone. Intel surged over 5%, Tesla and Amazon rose more than 1%, Netflix and Meta Platforms saw modest gains, while Google edged slightly lower.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.41% to close at 7,588.92. Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. were mixed, with Pony AI surging over 11%, while Alibaba and Baidu dropped more than 1%.

The U.S. government signed an $80 billion agreement with Westinghouse to construct nuclear reactors, driving a collective surge in uranium-related stocks, among which $Cameco(CCJ.US)$ rose over 23%, $Denison Mines (DNN.US)$ 、 $Uranium Energy(UEC.US)$ 、 $NexGen Energy(NXE.US)$ $Uranium Royalty (UROY.US)$ Multiple stocks surged over 10%.

Cryptocurrencies slumped during the New York session close, with Ethereum dropping more than 5% from its daily high. The majority of cryptocurrency-related stocks fell, among which Galaxy Digital (GLXY.US) Declined by more than 8%, $Circle(CRCL.US)$ dropped over 5%, $TeraWulf(WULF.US)$ Surged more than 16%.

Polymarket, known as the ‘prediction market leader,’ is set to return to the U.S. by the end of November, focusing on sports betting services; gambling-related stocks came under pressure. $DraftKings(DKNG.US)$ Fell by more than 5%.

Solar energy-related stocks collectively fell, among which $SolarEdge Technologies(SEDG.US)$ 、 $SunPower Inc(SPWR.US)$ Dropped more than 4%.

• NVIDIA GTC Conference: Surge in chip shipments, rapid capacity expansion, new chips to generate $500 billion in revenue

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ CEO Jensen Huang on Tuesday dismissed concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble, stating that the company’s latest chips would generate $500 billion in revenue over the next five quarters. Speaking at the GTC conference in Washington, Huang noted that the Blackwell processor and the next-generation Rubin model are driving unprecedented sales growth. The conference highlighted NVIDIA’s partnerships with companies such as Uber Technologies, Palantir, and CrowdStrike to integrate AI into a variety of products. NVIDIA also unveiled a new system connecting quantum computers with AI chips. “We have reached a turning point in a virtuous cycle,” Huang told thousands of attendees at a conference center near the White House. “This is truly extraordinary.” At the core of Huang’s speech was the inflection point of the AI industry, where he argued that current AI models are now powerful enough for customers to be willing to pay for their use, justifying the construction of costly computing infrastructure. This perspective alleviated market concerns about an AI investment bubble, pushing NVIDIA’s stock up nearly 5% on Tuesday, with its price surpassing $200 for the first time.

NVIDIA will subscribe to approximately 166 million shares at $6.01 per share, acquiring a 2.9% stake. Nokia (NOK.US) The two parties will collaborate in the fields of 5G and 6G network software as well as AI infrastructure. NVIDIA has launched the Aerial RAN Computer Pro computing platform for 6G networks, and Nokia will expand its RAN product portfolio on this basis, introducing new AI-RAN products. T-Mobile will partner with both companies, planning to begin field testing AI-RAN technology in 2026 and integrate the technology into its 6G development process.

Lucid Group (LCID.US) Shares surged over 7% on Tuesday after the company announced plans to introduce Level 4 autonomous vehicles to consumers through collaboration with NVIDIA. The company intends to integrate NVIDIA’s DRIVE AGX Thor technology into future mid-size vehicles, achieving what Lucid describes as ‘true eyes-off, hands-off, mind-off’ capability. This move positions Lucid to potentially become one of the first automakers to offer privately owned passenger vehicles with Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities. In addition to vehicle autonomy, Lucid is also implementing NVIDIA’s industrial platform and Omniverse to optimize manufacturing processes. This software-driven manufacturing approach aims to enable reconfigurable production lines, enhance quality control, and support scalable operations to reduce costs and accelerate delivery.

$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$ Eli Lilly and Co is partnering with NVIDIA to build a supercomputer and AI factory comprising over 1,000 Blackwell Ultra GPUs, expected to go live in January next year. The system will accelerate drug discovery and support large-scale AI model training. Diogo Rau, Chief Information and Digital Officer of Eli Lilly, stated: ‘We aim to discover new molecules that humans alone could never identify.’

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ plans to launch the NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL144 and NVIDIA Vera Rubin CPX platforms in 2026, providing over three times the AI attention acceleration compared to Blackwell Ultra. It will support the full-stack NVIDIA AI Factory Government Reference Design and expand its AI solutions portfolio, including desktop-level AI supercomputers, NVIDIA GB300-based Super AI workstations, and a new rack-scale NVIDIA GB200 NVL4 HPC solution.

According to media reports, $Apple(AAPL.US)$ is planning a complete upgrade to OLED displays for the MacBook Air, iPad mini, and iPad Air. Among these, the iPad mini will be the first to adopt OLED technology, with an expected launch as early as next year. The price may increase by approximately $100, featuring a waterproof body and a hole-free speaker system. The next-generation iPad Air will continue using LCD initially but will later transition to OLED; the MacBook Pro will be the first Mac equipped with OLED, while the MacBook Air is anticipated to adopt this technology around 2028.

• Following Amazon, UPS discloses plans to lay off 48,000 employees! CEO: We continue to identify opportunities for cost reduction.

$United Parcel Service (UPS.US)$ disclosed during its earnings report on Tuesday that the company has eliminated 48,000 managerial and operational positions, including 14,000 management roles and 34,000 operational roles. This round of layoffs exceeded the scale previously announced by United Parcel Service (UPS). Benefiting from cost-cutting measures and job reductions, UPS shares rose nearly 7% during midday trading on the U.S. stock market on Tuesday.

$PayPal(PYPL.US)$ The stock surged over 3% following an agreement to integrate its digital wallet into ChatGPT. According to a statement, hundreds of millions of OpenAI users are already utilizing the startup’s generative AI to search for products. This new collaboration means PayPal will provide payment technology to convert these searches into actual purchases. Both companies stated that the service will offer multiple payment options, along with PayPal’s buyer and seller protection and post-purchase services such as tracking and dispute resolution.

According to a report by U.S. media on Tuesday citing $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ statements from the Chairman of the Board, Tesla has begun considering internal CEO succession plans if Elon Musk’s $100 billion compensation package fails to pass at next week’s annual shareholder meeting. Board Chair Robyn Denholm urged shareholders on Monday to vote in favor of the CEO compensation plan, emphasizing the importance of retaining Musk to lead Tesla as the company undergoes strategic transitions toward autonomous driving technology and humanoid robotics. ‘No one other than Musk is capable of leading Tesla. Musk’s compensation plan is performance-based, and his pay package is the only way to increase his voting power.’

This underscores Musk’s irreplaceable core position in Tesla’s corporate image and investor confidence, even as the company faces pressure to reduce its reliance on him. The proposed compensation plan would set 12 equity incentive tranches for Musk, with performance targets including increasing the company’s market value to $8.5 trillion and achieving significant technological breakthroughs in autonomous driving and robotics. The departure of several executives in recent years has left Tesla with insufficient depth in its management ranks, and current CFO Vaibhav Taneja and Senior Vice President of Automotive Operations Zhu Xiaotong have emerged as the most critical executives aside from Musk.

U.S.-based online education giant $Chegg (CHGG.US)$ Facing the ‘new reality’ of generative AI disruptions and reduced Google search traffic, Chegg announced a 45% workforce reduction, affecting approximately 388 positions, marking its second major restructuring in a short period. The company has also decided to forgo plans for a sale or privatization and will continue operating independently. Chegg’s market capitalization has plummeted by 99% from its peak, as it grapples with an existential crisis brought on by AI advancements. Shares fell more than 13% overnight.

$Western Union (WU.US)$ Plans to issue USD Payment Tokens (USDPT), a dollar-backed stablecoin, on the Solana platform through Anchorage Digital Bank in the first half of 2026. This token will enable its 100 million customers to conduct international remittances at lower costs and faster settlement speeds. The company is also developing a digital asset network for currency exchange. Following the introduction of the GENIUS Act, and amid intensifying competition from PayPal, MoneyGram, and traditional banks, Western Union has been testing the application of stablecoins and blockchain technology in its funds operations.

• A data stream platform service provider $Confluent(CFLT.US)$ Shares surged over 7% after the company reported strong third-quarter results, with subscription revenue growing 19% year-on-year to $286 million. The company highlighted significant growth in Flink Cloud’s annual recurring revenue and continued expansion of its customer base, with its partnership with Siemens Healthineers emerging as a key highlight.

• OpenAI reached a landmark agreement to transition into a for-profit organization, with Microsoft acquiring a 27% stake. The licensing of AI models has been extended until 2032, while Azure secured orders worth $250 billion.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ Support the establishment of OpenAI’s for-profit organization in the form of a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC). After OpenAI completes its capital restructuring, Microsoft’s investment stake in the PBC is valued at $135 billion, holding approximately 27% equity. Microsoft has extended its intellectual property licensing agreement for OpenAI’s models and products until 2032, including models developed after the realization of AGI (with appropriate safety guardrails in place). Microsoft retains the right to share 20% of OpenAI’s revenue.

At the $Pony AI(PONY.US)$ and $WeRide(WRD.US)$ As competition heats up for the title of ‘Hong Kong’s First Robotaxi Stock,’ ride-hailing software company Uber Technologies is ‘hedging its bets on both sides.’ On October 28, according to media reports citing sources familiar with the matter, Uber is planning to participate in the Hong Kong initial public offerings (IPOs) of autonomous driving companies Pony AI and WeRide.

Sources indicated that Uber may invest approximately $100 million in Pony AI’s Hong Kong IPO. Pony AI went public in the United States last year, and this Hong Kong listing aims to raise up to $972 million (excluding any potential exercise of the over-allotment option).

• $Royal Philips (PHG.US)$ Shares fell more than 5% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) inspections found adulteration issues in devices manufactured at the company’s facilities in Bothell, Rizville, and the Netherlands.

Top 20 by Trading Value

Market Outlook

• Northbound funds increased their holdings in Hong Kong stocks by over HKD 2.2 billion, purchasing more than HKD 500 million worth of China Mobile shares while selling over HKD 500 million worth of Alibaba shares.

On October 28 (Tuesday), southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 2.258 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks today.

$China Mobile (00941.HK)$、$Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK)$、$Pop Mart (09992.HK)$They respectively achieved net purchases of HKD 513 million, HKD 396 million, and HKD 323 million.

$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$、$Tencent (00700.HK)$、Li Auto-W (02015.HK)Were net sold HKD 5.23 billion, HKD 3.56 billion, and HKD 2.92 billion, respectively.

Bank Of China (03988.HK) According to an announcement on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, revenue in Q3 reached CNY 162.697 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the bank amounted to CNY 60.069 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.09%. In the first three quarters, revenue was CNY 492.115 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.72%, while net profit attributable to shareholders of the bank was CNY 177.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.08%. As of the end of September, the group’s total non-performing loans amounted to CNY 288.669 billion, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.24%, down 0.01 percentage points from the end of last year. The coverage ratio for non-performing loans was 196.60%, down 4.00 percentage points from the end of last year.

Ping An (02318.HK) According to the announcement on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in the first three quarters of 2025, the group achieved an operating profit attributable to parent company shareholders of RMB 116.264 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was RMB 132.856 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with the third quarter alone showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 45.4%.

Profitability was undermined by cost overruns. $ZTE Corporation (00763.HK)$ In the third quarter, revenue increased by 5% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 87.84% year-on-year. For the first three quarters, the company still faced a scenario of ‘increased revenue but reduced profits,’ with revenue exceeding RMB 100 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of over 10%, while net profit amounted to RMB 5.322 billion, marking a year-on-year decline of 32.69%.

Today’s Focus

October 29, Wednesday

Keywords: Trump’s visit to South Korea and attendance at the APEC meeting, Microsoft/Google/Meta earnings, Hong Kong stock market closed

On Wednesday, in terms of financial events, U.S. President Trump visited South Korea and attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit held in South Korea.

Regarding earnings, $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ 、 $Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL.US)$ 、 $Meta Platforms(META.US)$ Major technology giants are set to announce their earnings after the U.S. stock market closes.

In terms of market closures, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day due to the Chongyang Festival.

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