U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik has been teasing a run for governor for months, leaving an official decision up in the air until after Election Day.
At an event this weekend to campaign alongside local candidates including Rensselaer County Executive Steve McLaughlin, Stefanik stuck with the plan.
“More to come on that after the local elections,” she said. “I think there is going to be a lot of focus on the Tuesday races, but I said I would make my decision in November and I look forward to announcing if and when we are ready.”
Stefanik is widely seen as the most likely Republican challenger to take on Gov. Kathy Hochul, and has touted a recent poll by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, showing her with a slight edge over the governor, who has bested Stefanik in recent Siena polls. In recent weeks, she has campaigned for local officials like McLaughlin and others, but has focused much of her energy and social media presence on Hochul and her endorsement of New York City mayoral front-runner Zohran Mamdani.
Asked what she would consider a good night for the New York GOP on Tuesday, even in the hills of Schodack, the prospect of a “Mayor Mamdani” and his slew of far-left proposals on the sidewalks of New York was very much on Stefanik’s mind.
“I think we’re going to see a good showing in places like Rensselaer County. We have a good understanding of what we’re looking for across the state,” she said.
Stefanik then added that she’s concerned about a Mamdani win. “That will destroy New York state, destroy New York City, and she bent the knee,” the Congresswoman said of Hochul’s decision to endorse.
For her part, Hochul undertook a campaign swing of her own over the weekend, logging more than 400 miles, traveling to campaign events for her preferred candidates along the New York State Thruway, as well as an appearance alongside Mamdani in Astoria.
“I just want people to be fired up and energetic and excited to cast their ballot,” she told WBEN in support of Buffalo Mayoral candidate Sean Ryan. “Anybody who calls this the off-year, I always take offense to that because I ran in the off-years, I ran as a local official.”
Hochul’s odd-year election blitz came as the governor has steadfastly supported an effort to move many county and town races to even years, and a ballot measure to gauge voter support to do the same via constitutional amendment in New York City. Hochul expressed hope Monday that the effort will ultimately boost turnout in a way that helps Democrats. This fall, the change in state law impacting towns and counties withstood a lawsuit filed by Republicans who characterize it as a power grab and an affront to local election control, and last week it was hit with another lawsuit, this time in federal court.
“Giving Democrats a fighting chance to be representatives because we know how devastating it has been under Republican control, from the White House to the Senate to the House, down to local races as well,” Hochul said. “Getting the elections aligned in a way that’s beneficial is what I’m going to continue fighting for.”
While a Stefanik candidacy is often discussed publicly as a foregone concussion, it has long been clear that there will be clues for the congresswoman when it comes to the GOP’s 2026 chances in Tuesday’s results.
Ironically, Larry Levy, executive dean at the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, says the proper stage dressing for a campaign launch may diverge from Stefanik’s personal and political views.
“A good night for Stefanik is that Mamdani wins, because she then has a much more visible target,” he said.
But Levy is urging election night watchers to keep an eye on Long Island’s own national bellwether, Nassau County, where Republican Executive Bruce Blakeman is running for reelection.
Questions over downstate suburban momentum, and whether President Donald Trump will feel similarly toward the idea of Stefanik leaving Congress to run for governor as he did when her abbreviated nomination for UN ambassador ended this spring, have left Blakeman’s name firmly in discussions over the governor’s race. Multiple Albany lawmakers handicapping the race from afar in recent weeks have raised similar questions.
Levy said a great night for Blakeman could push his name further into the ring, while a bad or so-so night for the county executive benefits Stefanik.
“If Blakeman is a lot closer to a toss-up, it’s going to perhaps make Donald Trump think twice about who he is going to throw his support to in a primary,” he said.
In 2022, when Hochul won a full term in a closer-than-expected victory against former Rep. Lee Zeldin, Democrats sleepwalked to the polls while Republicans were energized amid frustration with former President Joe Biden’s White House, and criminal justice concerns dominating Zeldin’s campaign against Hochul.
2026 is a midterm year in which Democrats are out of power and more likely to have the energy on their side, so Shawn Donahue of the University at Buffalo stressed that MAGA support will likely be key in overcoming the natural disadvantage facing a Republican candidate running in blue state amid a likely tough year for the GOP. While Trump endorsed Blakeman this week as “100% MAGA,” Stefanik’s MAGA credentials are known nationwide.
“That definitely helps turn out the Republican base. Clearly there are not as many Republicans as Democrats, but in a midterm election that could be quite important,” he said.
While Stefanik may be able to campaign off a Mamdani victory, Levy points out that Hochul is in a tough spot in that she may actually benefit in the long run from her chosen candidate losing, even if it is less than ideal in the short-term.
“If voters aren’t reminded every day that there’s a guy in Gracie Mansion who wants free buses, free rent, to raise taxes on the rich, she’s probably better off,” he said.
