Severe weather is threatening to derail the lead-up to the Brazilian Grand Prix.
But it’s not all doom and gloom with a qualifying washout to hand Aussie Oscar Piastri a crucial front-row start for the main event based on championship standings.
The FIA has issued an “orange alert” for Saturday as an extratropical cyclone forms off Brazil’s southern coast. This is expected to hit overnight.
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Oscar Piastri navigates the rain-soaked track during the 2024 Brazilian Grand Prix. Peter Fox/ Formula 1 via Getty Images
This system is poised to bring severe storms to the Sao Paulo area, including the area around the circuit.
The forecast for Interlagos is treacherous.
Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology expects between 50 and 100 millimetres of rain, peaking at an intense 60mm per hour, which is likely to cause flooding. Hail is also forecast.
Furthermore, the institute warns of powerful winds, gusting up to 100 km/h, which could bring down trees and cause power outages.
The high risk puts the Saturday schedule, including the sprint race and qualifying, in serious jeopardy.
Current forecasts indicate the worst of the weather is expected to hit Interlagos on Saturday morning before conditions begin to ease.
Despite a dry sole practice on Friday, the rest of the forecast has put teams on high alert for a potentially chaotic weekend.
McLaren driver Oscar Piastri heads out during sprint qualifying for the Brazilian Grand Prix. Anni Graf/ Formula 1 via Getty Images
The sprint race, scheduled for 1am AEDT Sunday (11am local time Saturday), faces an 80 per cent chance of rain, with delays of up to two to three hours possible.
While there will be options to delay the start if the weather is too bad, this cannot happen indefinitely, as there is a window by which it needs to be completed because of qualifying later in the day.
Formula 1’s sporting regulations mandate a minimum three-hour gap between the end of the sprint and the start of main qualifying.
Given that qualifying must begin before 5pm local time to avoid finishing in the dark, with sunset around 6:30pm, this means the sprint must be completed before 2pm.
This effectively gives the FIA a window of only two to three hours for delay before the session would face abandonment or the need to postpone qualifying until Sunday — as is what happened last year.
The chaotic, wet-weather start of the 2024 Brazilian Grand Prix. Vince Mignott/ MB Media via Getty Images
If the sprint cannot be completed safely, F1 regulations employ two key conditions for awarding points on the sliding scale.
No points will be awarded unless the race leader completes at least two laps under green-flag conditions.
Furthermore, no points will be given if the race leader completes less than 50 per cent of the sprint distance.
If more than half the distance is completed, with at least two laps free of safety car or virtual safety car interference, then points will be given out.
The main qualifying session, scheduled for 5am AEDT Sunday (3pm local time), has a slightly lower 40 per cent chance of rain.
If qualifying is washed out completely, new regulations introduced this year dictate the grid will be set by the current drivers’ championship standings.
Oscar Piastri speaks to media during previews ahead the Brazilian Grand Prix. Getty
This rule exists because of the controversy surrounding grid setting at last year’s grand prix.
This scenario would hand Lando Norris pole position ahead of McLaren teammate Piastri and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.
Norris holds the decisive advantage with 357 points, just one point separating him from Piastri (356), with Verstappen further back on 321 points.
Sunday’s grand prix carries an improved forecast, showing only a 20 per cent chance of showers.
However, overcast skies and damp conditions may still prove a challenge for drivers and teams.
Interlagos’ historical reputation for highly unpredictable and fast-changing weather means that even the best forecasts can be wrong, keeping the outcome of the weekend uncertain.
Piastri will start third in the sprint behind Norris and Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli.
