Cooper Albers details his best bet for Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Three fights before Gabriel Bonfim headlines UFC Vegas 111 on Saturday night, his older brother, Ismael, looks to set the tone in a lightweight bout against Chris “Taco” Padilla.
Bonfim aims to bounce back from an unfortunate doctor’s stoppage loss in February, while Padilla attempts to push his winning streak to seven.
Bonfim enters as a -135 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with Padilla listed as a +114 underdog. The total is set at 2.5 rounds. Here’s my best bet for Saturday night’s lightweight showdown.
Chris Padilla (16-6) burst onto the UFC scene with a short-notice debut in April 2024 — and earned a first-round submission win over James Llontop. Nicknamed “Taco,” Padilla is now 3-0 inside the Octagon, winning all three fights as a betting underdog and extending his professional winning streak to six.
While not the most powerful fighter, Padilla is aggressive, durable, and versatile, finishing 13 of his 16 wins — eight by knockout and five by submission — and only being stopped three times. The 30-year-old lightweight enters Saturday night’s contest off a narrow split-decision victory over Jai Herbert in March.
Ismael Bonfim (20-5) is hungry to rebound from a momentum-stifling doctor’s stoppage loss to Nazim Sadykhov last February, which dropped him to a middling 2-2 in the UFC and 1-2 in his last three bouts.
Still, the Dana White’s Contender Series standout has historically bounced back. After a humbling submission defeat to Benoit St. Denis, he treated Vinc Pichel like a punching bag, landing over 110 significant strikes on his way to a commanding unanimous decision victory.
Bonfim, 29, is a sharp boxer with elite speed and distance management. Nicknamed “Maretta” — Portuguese for “sledgehammer” — he has finished 13 of his 20 victories, including nine knockouts, and made a statement in his UFC debut by flatlining Terrance McKinney with a second-round flying knee.
At 5-foot-8, Bonfim is a bit undersized for 155 pounds and has run into trouble against opponents who can exploit a size advantage. That likely won’t be the case against Padilla, who stands just one inch taller.
With that in mind, Bonfim should be able to capitalize on his striking edge. Like his opponent, he’s extremely aggressive and can lean on his solid defense — and concrete chin — to support his attacks during exchanges.
Count on Bonfim to set the tone for his family on Saturday night.
