The Nevada football team plays at Utah State on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Aggies with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (1-7, 0-4 MW) at Utah State (4-4, 2-2)
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. (Pacific time)
Where: Maverik Stadium (capacity 25,513)
Surface: AstroTurf GameDay Grass 3D60 Extreme
Weather: High of 50; low of 26; 5 percent chance of rain
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/105.7 FM (also on the Varsity Network)
Online: None
Betting line: Utah State favored by 9.5; total of 52.5
All-time series: Nevada leads, 19-8
Last matchup: Utah State won, 41-24, on Nov. 11, 2023 (in Logan, Utah)
Three keys to the game
1. A controlled pass rush: Utah State has an excellent offense that is led by quarterback Bryson Barnes, who is in his sixth college season. Barnes is a dual-threat weapon who has passed for 1,808 yards, rushed for 367 more and accounted for 21 touchdowns. He’s done that despite playing in front of an offensive line that has allowed a Mountain West-high 28 sacks, which rank among the top 10 in the nation. Nevada’s defensive strength is its defensive line led by Dylan LaBarbera and Jonathan Maldonado, who have combined for 9.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. That line must get consistent pressure on Barnes, who will carve the Wolf Pack up if given time. But it must be a controlled pass rush as Barnes is elite at making off-script runs to gash defenses, which Nevada has been prone to this year.
2. Make things easy for Jones: True freshman quarterback Carter Jones is expected to get his fourth college start for Nevada. Two have been disasters, games against San Diego State and Boise State. Utah State does not play defense like the Aztecs or Broncos. In fact, the Aggies have one of the MW’s poorer defenses with Utah State ranking 10th out of 12 teams in points per game (31.75) and yards per game (444). Jones has mixed in impressive outings against Fresno State and New Mexico over the last month, and Nevada must get that version from him. To do that, he needs help, specifically from a Wolf Pack run attack that’s fallen off a cliff, averaging 86.3 yards in the last four games (103 fewer than Nevada’s first four games). That run game gets a favorable matchup against Utah State, which allows 185.8 rush yards per game (11th in the MW). Nevada needs to get the ground game going to open things up for Jones.
3. Find some short fields: Nevada only has nine offensive touchdowns in eight games this season. Guess how many have gone longer than 50 yards? Three. That’s not good. Nevada has clearly been unable to produce sustained drives this season, so one way around that is to get short fields for that offense. How do you do that? It could be a defensive turnover or big special teams play, which Nevada used for a pair of short fields in nearly upsetting New Mexico last month. Utah State’s special teams coverage units have been below average, so that’s one path to winning the field-position battle. Banking on short fields off turnovers will be harder as Utah State has only had seven of those and Nevada’s defense has forced just seven takeaways. However it is accomplished, getting some short fields for the offense is essential.
Prediction
Utah State 28, Nevada 17: The Wolf Pack’s defense has been up to the task this season and gets one of its biggest tests in the Aggies, who put points on ranked SEC teams Texas A&M (22) and Vanderbilt (35). Utah State has been a lock for three or four touchdowns per game, with the exception of its last game, a 33-14 loss to New Mexico. If the Aggies score three or four touchdowns against Nevada, it’s hard to see the Wolf Pack keeping pace given the season-long offensive issues. With Utah State averaging 38.8 points per home game, I’ll take the Aggies. Season record: 6-2 (straight up); 4-4 (against the spread)
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
