Carolina Hurricanes @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: TVAS, TSN4, FDSNSO
The Leafs last game was at home on November 8 against the Boston Bruins, which Toronto lost by a score of 5-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 8-6-1 for a 0.567 Points %.
The Carolina Hurricanes last played at home on November 8 against the Buffalo Sabres. The Hurricanes won by a score of 6-3 in regulation, and their current league record is 10-4-0 for a 0.714 Points %.
Them
How are the Hurricanes doing this year? They are usually great at offence, have the puck so much they usually are a top team in rate of giveaways (shoutout to the stupid Sportsnet commentary), and they are solid defensively with a goaltending situation that always seems like an antique vase sitting on the edge of a table with one leg shorter than the others in an earthquake zone.
So far this year, the Hurricanes are first in Corsi and fifth in Expected Goals percentages, and they are second in both Corsi For and Against per 60. That’s all as per usual. What’s unusual is they are also second in Expected Goals For when they normally lose a lot of quality in favour of volume shooting. They are muddy middle in terms of Expected Goals Against, so given their low shot rate, they must be allowing a very high quality of shots against.
The goalie situation is a bit fragile. Before they claimed back Cayden Primeau yesterday, they had three goalies on the active roster as they were using their AHL goalie Brandon Bussi while Pyotr Kochetkov was hurt. He’s back from a conditioning stint in the AHL, but Bussi is still on the roster. Primeau was sent to the minors.
The Hurricanes are missing three rostered defenders: Jaccob Slavin, who is one of the best defensive defenders in the NHL, as well as Shane Gostisbehare, and stats darling Jalen Chatfield. William Carrier returned to the lineup last night.
Kochetkov played last night, so we must be getting Freddie.
Lines
Ryan Henkel via Daily Faceoff
Andrei Svechnikov – Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis
Nikolaj Ehlers – Logan Stankoven – Jackson Blake
Taylor Hall – Jordan Staal – Jordan Martinook
William Carrier – Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Eric Robinson
Alexander Nikishin – Sean Walker
K’Andre Miller – Joel Nystrom
Mike Reilly – Charles-Alexis Legault
Frederik Andersen – likely starter
Pyotr Kochetkov
Us
The Leafs are fourth in the NHL in Goals For/60, a stat likely unknown to everyone, and very unexpected given the roster changes. They are dead last in Goals Against at five-on-five and second last in all situations.
How they get to those goal numbers is where you can find the things that need to improve, but last night’s goalie pull on the first game of a back-to-back is certainly an indicator of one factor. The defence in front of either goalie was also really obviously not what you want to see.
Anthony Stolarz played 24 minutes and Dennis Hildeby 32, so either one could start tonight on the same workload. I expect the Leafs to go with Hildeby, though there was no confirmation of that after last night’s game.
Scott Laughton left the game last night after what Craig Berube (but not the officials) said looked like a head shot. Laughton is not playing tonight, so yesterday’s lines have been adjusted below to bring Calle Järnkrok back in. Sammy Blais is also available. No confirmation has been given on who is in at time of writing.
Lines
Yesterday’s lines, adjusted for the loss of Scott Laughton
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Nicholas Robertson – John Tavares – Bobby McMann
Dakota Joshua – Nicolas Roy – Matias Maccelli
Steven Lorentz – Max Domi – Calle Järnkrok (likely)
Morgan Rielly – Brandon Carlo
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Jake McCabe
Simon Benoit – Philippe Myers
Dennis Hildeby
Anthony Stolarz
The Game
I don’t have a lot of love for Simon Benoit’s game, but considering two other defenders who could not take his job in training camp have played in multiple Leafs games this season, maybe there’s a reason the team is struggling defensively.
But look at who is missing on the Hurricanes.
Injuries happen, you play with lesser quality players, and the rest of the team has to execute a game that recognizes that.
I made fun of the SN crew talking about giveaways without realizing they’re often just a measure of how much you have the puck. Not always though. Because the Maple Leafs are third right now in giveaways (by rate). EH does this handy +/- of turnovers which is takeaways minus giveaways. You might recall years back an article about the pocket picking masters of the Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Now with one of those two gone and some major transitional struggles we have the Leafs right now second last in this Turnovers +/- measure.
This is borderline trivia, and it doesn’t predict anything, while the effects of transitional skill are part of the stats that are predictive, but it tells you what the players are doing. Or not doing.
I don’t believe any coach sets out to have a team cough the puck up at the blue lines like the Leafs do, and most members of the team – from the top to the bottom – are doing it more this year than they did last. And that’s a big part of the cause of the bad possession number – by time or by shots. It’s not that guy you don’t like. It’s Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson and all the top forwards (except, wait for it… JT). It’s all the good players playing worse than they know they can.
