The Patriots are on a 7-game winning streak, where nothing seems to be slowing their momentum, but now they’ll face a different kind of challenge against the division rival Jets on Thursday Night Football.
New England announced its arrival in Buffalo (Week 5), avoided trap games (vs. the Saints, Week 6), and cemented its standing as one of the top teams in the AFC by taking down the NFC South-leading Buccaneers in Tampa Bay last week. Just when you think the Patriots might have a letdown game against a weaker opponent or fail to rise to the occasion when they go up a level in competition, head coach Mike Vrabel’s squad has passed each test to this point in the season at 8-2.
The late-bye Patriots will now play their 11th-straight game of the season on a short week, presenting a unique challenge in a divisional matchup. New England is at home, which helps, since they won’t lose time traveling to the Meadowlands. Still, after keeping the motor revving down in the heat of Central Florida, the Patriots are playing the schedule as much as they’re playing the Jets, with their bye still a ways off in Week 14.
Along with needing to quickly rest, recover, and reset, the Jets are playing better football as winners of two straight games under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn. New York has a legit run-first offense that has scored 39 and 27 points in its last two games. Despite only dropping back to pass 16 times, Gang Green got a kickoff return touchdown, a punt return touchdown, and rushed 33 times for 127 yards in a 27-20 win over the Browns last week.
The Pats run defense versus the Jets rush offense is a strength-on-strength matchup, with New York ranking fourth in explosive run rate and sixth in run-blocking win rate. From that standpoint, it has a chance to be a physical game on a short week, while the Jets designed QB runs take practice reps to prepare for during the week. Let’s not forget what Jets QB Justin Fields did on a Monday night in 2022, when he came into Gillette Stadium and balled out in a 33-14 win. If you let him run around, both by design and on scrambles, Fields can play at a high level.
“We’ll have a huge challenge this week, and whether it’s their scheme runs with the quarterback, whether it’s Breece Hall, whether it’s the under center, the gun runs, the pull schemes, the perimeter runs. So, that’s all that’s going to matter this week, is how we do those, and whatever scheme runs that they have coming up that we’ll have to prepare for and tackle,” head coach Mike Vrabel said on Tuesday.
Another factor that makes this AFC East matchup tricky is the Ewing theory. The Ewing theory was coined by Bill Simmons when the Knicks would anecdotally play better without star C Patrick Ewing in the lineup. The idea is that everyone is a little more focused, role players have their moments to shine, and the team rises to the occasion. Eventually, the short-term boost might wear off, but for a few games, it may be effective.
By trading away star defenders Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, the Jets have a bit of the Ewing theory going on. Gardner didn’t play in his last game on the Jets roster due to a concussion, a Jets win over the Bengals (39-38), and New York won its first game after the Gardner-Williams trades. The Jets will really put the Ewing theory to the test this week, as star WR Garrett Wilson is now dealing with a knee sprain that will cause him to miss time. After a promising 2022 NFL Draft where they selected Gardner and Wilson in the first round, neither will suit up for the Jets on Thursday night at Gillette Stadium.
Admittedly, hyping the power of friendship on a short week might come across as being overly optimistic about the Jets chances of winning. However, all that’s left to say about the red-hot Patriots is don’t take a divisional opponent on a short week lightly – another test of Vrabel’s culture.
Let’s break down the chess match between the Patriots and Jets on Thursday Night Football.
Patriots Offense Key: Get Ready to See Plenty of Man Coverage on Thursday Night
The Jets made headlines when they traded star CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, but New York’s defense was struggling before they made those trades.
In their first season under defensive-minded head coach Aaron Glenn, the Jets were 30th in DVOA on defense before trading their two star defenders. Glenn, a former Jets cornerback who built his coaching resume as the Lions defensive coordinator under head coach Dan Campbell, is installing a new defensive system that hasn’t taken hold yet.
Although he isn’t the primary defensive play-caller, DC Steve Wilks is clearly running the same system that Glenn installed in Detroit, which features a heavy dosage of man coverage. The Jets rank sixth in overall man coverage rate (38.7%), second in press-man rate (32.6%), and are third in man-blitz frequency (21.2%) – they want to play man coverage.
Over the last few seasons, Gardner’s man coverage metrics were solid, but the now-Colts corner was a better fit in former head coach Robert Saleh’s version of the Seattle-3 defense. For reference, Gardner used to get comparisons to former Seahawks CB Richard Sherman.
At its roots, Saleh’s scheme was a zone coverage defense. Under Glenn and Wilks, the Jets major in man coverage, and they had Gardner shadow receivers rather than gluing him to the boundary like Saleh did over the years. Gardner is a good corner, but perhaps the Jets new brass didn’t feel that his finesse playing style was a scheme fit, given Glenn’s emphasis on aggressiveness and tackling. In the first 10 weeks, the Jets have the fourth-highest missed tackle rate in the NFL (15.2%).
