In its run-up, the 2025 assembly election in Bihar was all about Nitish Kumar — a contest between what he had done in the past 20 years and what he hadn’t. And the results on Friday reflected how Kumar remains at the heart of the state’s politics.
Dodging a bouquet of odds — a 20-year anti-incumbency, a sentiment for ‘badlaav’ (change) among some sections, public disillusionment with unemployment, concerns of ill-health and the unenviable image of being east India’s version of ‘Aaya Ram Gaya Ram’ , Kumar managed to return to power as chief minister with a thumping mandate, with the National Democratic Alliance leading in 207 of the 243 seats at the time of publishing this report.
With this, Kumar has cemented his position as a formidable regional leader who knows how to remain in power, either through astute mass politics or clever, even if brazen, alliance hopping.
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What consistently works for Kumar is the perception of ushering a watershed in the state’s polity — converting it from the ‘jungle raj’ of the previous Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) regime to a functioning state ever since taking over as chief minister for his first full term in 2005.
This contrast between the previous RJD regime and Nitish Kumar’s rule is so stark that it manages to overwhelm much else — even voter fatigue for a two-decade-long regime, which several other tall leaders find hard to beat. It’s particularly notable given how splintered Bihar’s electoral landscape is and how the many moving parts make the field even tougher to navigate.
As a cherry on the cake, his ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), more than delivered at its end giving a huge fillip to Kumar.
RJD’s face Tejashwi Yadav, meanwhile, with all his youth appeal, was bogged down with the unfortunate association with his father Lalu Yadav and mother Rabri Devi’s regime, and his inability to counter that narrative. The decimation of the Mahagathbandhan grouping shows the extent to which that memory continues to stick.
In that sense, therefore, this was an election about the past — Kumar’s past record of ‘sushasan’ (good governance) versus the RJD’s history of leading a lawless, corrupt and violent regime.
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The numbers
While the NDA seems to be sweeping this election, the Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance cuts a sorry figure at a mere 30 seats.
Within alliances, both the BJP and JD (U) have lived up to their side of the bargain, leading in 91 and 83 seats respectively. In the opposition alliance, the RJD is ahead in 27 seats while the Congress seems to be leading in just five.
The number of seats this election as compared to 2020 has seen a massive shift towards the ruling alliance.
In the previous assembly election, the NDA won 125 of the state’s 243 assembly seats and a vote share of 37.26 per cent, with the BJP at 74 and JD (U) at 43 seats. The opposition, meanwhile, won 110 seats, with the RJD at 75 and Congress at 19, and a vote share of 37.23 per cent.
What makes Nitish tick
The big story of this election are the women voters, who took a massive 8.8 percentage point lead over men in turnout. This is a constituency the chief minister has cultivated carefully, painstakingly and persistently.
He began with relationship by introducing a slew of policies soon into his term — from free bicycles for school going girls to reservations in governance tiers and government jobs, and later on, his controversial liquor prohibition law. His most recent initiative to transfer ₹10,000 each to numerous women beneficiaries under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana was a delicious garnish on the dish that he has been readying for two decades.
Women have, therefore, been Kumar’s most loyal votebank and his biggest asset, and the current election has only reinforced that.
What also worked hugely in Kumar’s favour was the idea of him having ushered in a degree of ‘vikas’ (development) in the state. While there are several sections of voters who say he did precious little beyond his first five to ten years in power, the fact is that the perception of misrule under the RJD is so pervasive and etched in voter psyche and the base has been set so low that any incremental work by Nitish has also had resonance. His image of being a congenial, ‘clean’ and self-made leader has also been a plus point for him.
Another big plus for Kumar has been his alliance — the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoy immense popularity on the ground and the numbers show that. More so, the NDA has a broader umbrella caste coalition comprising of upper castes, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and a section of Dalits.
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Why Tejashwi failed
To be sure, this is an embarrassing defeat for Tejashwi Yadav, the RJD and indeed the entire opposition alliance.
Four key factors caused the RJD’s fall.
One, the scars of the Lalu-Rabri regime continue and as their heir, Tejashwi was unable to shed that baggage. He isn’t seen as a breath of fresh air as youth usually are, but as a continuation of that legacy.
Two, Tejashwi found the biggest raw nerve for Nitish — resentment against unemployment and forced outward migration. But the antidote he proposed proved to be a flop. The idea of giving government jobs to each family was scoffed at by many, and even those looking for jobs saw it as being impractical. The lack of vision, therefore, became jarring.
Three, the Mahagathbandhan became a liability, more than a boost. The Congress failed to provide the kind of support and heft to the RJD that the BJP brought to the table for JD(U). In fact, the Congress campaign of ‘vote chori’ had zero resonance on the ground and exposed the national party’s inability to read the room.
Four, the Mahagathbandhan was largely relying on a Muslim-Yadav coalition, comprising about 30% of population. Tejashwi Yadav failed to add to that arithmetic and his effort to create a cross-cutting constituency with the youth clearly failed to land well, and needs more time and patience.
What next
Going forward, however, many questions remain. The rumours around Nitish Kumar’s health and his reluctance to cultivate a second rung and groom a successor loom large.
The big question around joblessness remains and the NDA will have to provide a concrete vision for that in this term. Make no mistake, unemployment was a key issue among voters, just that the opposition failed to capitalize on it smartly and provide a practical and sensible solution for it.
For the RJD, this is now a battle for survival. Tejashwi Yadav has age on his side, but he needs to think fast, and think hard. The big challenge would be to find a way to distance himself from the memories of his parents’ rule and his big bet on that front is the youth, which has little memory of it.
But for now, Nitish Kumar has emerged as the undisputed king of Bihar and a textbook case of how a leader can battle many odds and yet remain in power.
