A perfect storm for the New York Mets to lose free-agent closer Edwin Díaz might be developing.
Díaz, testing free agency for the first time, is eager to cash in on his last chance for a monster payday. The Toronto Blue Jays, who were two outs away from winning the World Series until closer Jeff Hoffman stumbled, are poised to spend big. Meanwhile, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns, whose initials might as well stand for Disciplined and Steady, would not be afraid to replace Diaz by diving into a deep market for closers.
I know what Mets fans are thinking: Steve Will Save Us, Steve being owner Steve Cohen, who fancies the best of everything, from his art collection to his major-league roster. The Mets re-signing Díaz very well could be the outcome if the Blue Jays or some other club makes him a massive offer and Cohen tops it in the end. But speaking to reporters Thursday night at the MLB Awards in Las Vegas, where he won the Trevor Hoffman Award for National League Reliever of the Year, Díaz said his chances of returning to the Mets were “50-50.”
Díaz, who turns 32 in March, wants the same kind of deal he signed with the Mets in November 2022, according to a person briefed on his wishes – five years, $102 million. He opted out of the final two years and $38 million in the deal, and is certain to turn down the Mets’ one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer.
A team that comes hard at Díaz could very well come away with him. He wants to win. The Mets, for all their spending, do not win consistently. In Díaz’s seven seasons with the Mets, including the 2023 campaign he missed with a ruptured patella tendon, the deepest he has gone into a postseason was the 2024 National League Championship Series. His first three seasons before getting traded to the Mets were with the Seattle Mariners, who did not make the playoffs during his tenure.
The Blue Jays, according to people briefed on their activity, met with Díaz’s agents from Wasserman at the general managers’ meetings. That’s not necessarily a major development. This early in the offseason, teams express interest in pretty much every quality player.
Toronto, though, is targeting high-leverage relief as well as starting pitching, and it’s signaling a willingness to both spend big and lose draft picks if necessary. The Jays are open to sliding Hoffman to the eighth inning, and Hoffman almost certainly would accept such a move if the team acquired a more accomplished closer.
The rotation is the Jays’ bigger priority. They might prefer to spend the most heavily in free agency on a starter such as Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease or Tatsuya Imai and go with a less expensive closer such as Devin Williams or Robert Suarez. Mets people, though, were not surprised to learn of the Jays’ interest in Díaz. After what happened in the World Series, who would be?
If ever a team was to invest in a closer, it’s the one reeling from the trauma of Game 7, when Hoffman allowed Miguel Rojas’ first home run off a right-handed pitcher all season to tie the score in the ninth. The Jays lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 11 innings, 5-4.
An emotional response to that defeat in free agency would be understandable. Yet, the Jays are hardly the only team that might pursue Díaz. To pry him from the Mets, all it might take is one blowaway offer.
Could it come from the Mets’ NL East rival, the Atlanta Braves? Chairman Terry McGuirk recently said on an earnings call that the Braves aim to carry one of the game’s five highest payrolls. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos listed the additions of a shortstop, starting pitcher and multiple relievers, in that order, as the team’s biggest needs. For Díaz, though, he might adjust.
The Mets’ crosstown rivals, the New York Yankees, are another club with potential interest. The Yankees, too, have other priorities: a starting pitcher and at least one outfielder. While they are set with David Bednar as their closer, they also face the losses of two high-leverage relievers in Williams and Luke Weaver, and Díaz is proven in New York.
Perhaps no contender needs Díaz more than the Detroit Tigers, who lack swing-and-miss in their bullpen and face the prospect of losing two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal to free agency at the end of the season. It would be something of a shock if the Tigers went big, but they reportedly offered free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman a six-year, $171.5 million deal last offseason. Díaz represents arguably a greater need.
A native of Puerto Rico, Díaz would likely prefer to stay in the east, but what if the Los Angeles Dodgers came calling? The San Francisco Giants? It’s free agency. Anything can happen. Díaz went 28-for-31 in save opportunities last season with a 1.63 ERA and 38 percent strikeout rate. While a five-year deal would cover his ages 32 to 36 seasons, his only career trip to the injured list for his arm, in 2024 for a right shoulder impingement, lasted just 16 days.
Josh Hader, before signing his five-year, $95 million free-agent contract with the Houston Astros in January 2024, restricted himself to one-inning appearances, unwilling to risk injury for a Milwaukee Brewers team that worked him hard early in his career. Díaz has shown himself to be willing and able to do whatever his team needs. Last season, he had 11 appearances of more than one inning.
No one disputes Díaz is the best closer on the market, but the Mets, too, might be more inclined to spend in other ways. Besides addressing the bullpen, they need to fix a rotation that collapsed in the final four months of last season, re-sign free-agent first baseman Pete Alonso or find a suitable replacement and address center field.
Stearns sets thresholds on each player’s value. He is responsive to shifts in the market, sometimes with nudges from Cohen. Yet, the way he sees things, there is no player he can’t live without. He could rationalize losing Díaz by saying he didn’t want to overpay for a reliever entering his mid-30s, then move on to others in the market.
Díaz is comfortable with the Mets, a favorite of Cohen and the owner’s wife, Alex. Like any star player, however, he seemingly is eager to be recognized for his achievements. He flew from Puerto Rico to Las Vegas for the MLB Awards. And after reaching his last deal with the Mets prior to testing the market, he wants to experience the free-agent process, see how teams value him, find out what he truly is worth.
Maybe the market for Díaz will prove less competitive than he envisions. Maybe he will go back to the Mets at something close to the team’s price. As the Mets well know, though, the best players at their positions generally get paid.
Díaz is the best player at his position, and the Blue Jays just experienced the most crushing failure imaginable at that position.
Proud player. Motivated team. An incumbent club that, coming off a disappointing season, might set a limit on how much it will pay.
That’s how you form a perfect storm.
