PROVO — With “College GameDay” in town, Saturday was the biggest Texas Tech home game in nearly 20 years. I was down in Lubbock for the game and came away impressed with both defenses.
Texas Tech may have the best defense in the entire country, led by sack leader David Bailey and their do-it-all Heisman candidate Jacob Rodriguez. They suffocated the BYU offense to season lows of yardage (255), yards per play (3.9) and points (7).
However, BYU’s defense did their part, too, especially in the red zone, where they hunkered down and kept Tech out of the end zone. BYU forced five field goals and limited Tech to touchdowns on just two of seven red zone appearances.
With the loss, BYU falls to 8-1 overall (5-1 Big 12), but they still control their path to the league title game, and thus, the playoff.
There is no time to rest in this November gauntlet, and next up they host a 6-3 TCU team who is better than their record would suggest. As always, this night game in LaVell Edwards Stadium will be electric (8:15 p.m. MDT, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): BYU 49.3 (36th of 68 Power 4) | TCU 61.0 (17th)
2024 season: BYU 70.0 (10th) | TCU 58.9 (26th)
2025 season: BYU 59.6 (26th) | TCU 60.2 (22nd)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish eighth in a wide-open Big 12 race. They have exceeded expectations through the first half of the season, and are now projected to finish 8-1 in league play.
After the Texas Tech loss, BYU fell out of the top 25 of Game Grader but still control their path to the title game.
TCU went 6-1 to closeout the 2024 season, returned their quarterback, star receivers, and most of their defense. Without Oklahoma and Texas in the conference, it is actually TCU who took over as the No. 1 high school recruiting program.
So coming into the season, I selected TCU to finish fifth in the Big 12 — much higher than their consensus prediction of ninth — and placed them in my preseason top 25. They lost by 3 to Arizona State, and then lost two games in which they outgained their opponents by 100+ yards (Kansas State and Iowa State). They check in at No. 22 in 2025 Game Grader.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense: 25th of 68 Power 4 teams, 34th passing, 22nd rushing
TCU defense: 35th of 68 Power 4 teams, 45th pass defense, 14th rush defense
BYU got their star running back LJ Martin back, but the Tech defense held him to just 35 yards on 10 carries. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier was neutralized, too, with just 12 rushing yards on 11 carries.
The good news is that their opponent this week does not have the star power and strength in the front seven to match Texas Tech.
TCU ranks below-average in scoring defense (25 points/game) and in all major pass defensive categories. In my opponent-adjusted number, they are 45th of 68 Power 4 team against the pass. As long as Bachmeier avoids safety Bud Clark, who had a pair of interceptions last week against Iowa State, look for BYU to hit some explosive pass plays.
It may be another tough week for Martin in the run game, though, as TCU ranks No. 14 in my opponent-adjusted number where they are solid against the run.
TCU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
TCU offense: 29th of 68 Power 4 teams, 28th passing, 48th rushing
BYU defense: 36th of 68 Power 4 teams, 19th pass defense, 47th rush defense
TCU’s offense is a more one-dimensional version of the unit BYU just faced last week. Texas Tech complements their spread passing attack with a dynamic run game, and their pair of backs went off for a combined 198 yards.
Both TCU and Tech operate their offenses at fast paces, but the difference is that TCU has struggled to run the ball effectively, and they are down starter Kevorian Barnes to injury.
Josh Hoover is sixth in the Big 12 in QB rating; and with him, it is all about whether he can avoid turnovers. In TCU’s three losses, he threw four touchdowns and six interceptions; but in their six wins, he threw 19 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
BYU already has 12 picks on the year (top 10 nationally) and will be hunting for more Saturday. Keep an eye on big-play Eric McAlister whose 17.4 yards per catch average ranks No. 2 among all FBS receivers (min. 40 catches).
Game prediction
Both sides will hit on long-yardage explosive pass plays, and both sides will struggle to maintain a consistent, productive rushing attack. Bachmeier brings more in the run game, while Hoover has the better pass stats.
Despite their different records and rankings, my numbers slightly favor TCU here. Look for a one-score game that comes down to the final possession, with Hoover finding McAlister for the winning drive.
TCU 27 | BYU 24
