Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State’s football game against Penn State, 3:40 p.m. Saturday at Spartan Stadium. TV: CBS. Betting line: Penn State -7.
1. Alessio Milivojevic’s encore
MSU coach Jonathan Smith didn’t announce that Alessio Milivojevic would be the Spartans’ starting quarterback this week. But it’s hard to see any other decision. Milivojevic wasn’t perfect in his first start two weeks ago at Minnesota, but the redshirt freshman did some good things and showed some promising traits — none more so than the ability and willingness to hang in the pocket against pressure. That’s not something you can easily teach.
Minnesota has a better pass rush statistically than Penn State, but the Nittany Lions have more talent on the edges. Milivojevic’s courage will be tested again. Where he struggled was in the red zone. Some of that was on the play calling. It’ll be interesting to see how MSU sets him up in those situations or whether the coaches turn to Aidan Chiles near the goal line, given the challenges Chiles’ legs can create for defenses.
2. Penn State’s state of mind
I should start trusting that MSU’s players are going to show up and play hard. They have for quite a few games in a row now. No reason to think it won’t happen in their final game of the season at Spartan Stadium. The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, I wonder where their heads are this week. Penn State is coming off games against Ohio State and Indiana, marquee games where, regardless of how your season was going, it’s easy to be focused and fired up to play. Now that the Nittany Lions have lost both of those games, last week to Indiana in heartbreaking fashion, I wonder how dialed in they’ll be for an off-the-radar (albeit CBS-televised) trip to East Lansing to face another team that’s 0-6 in the Big Ten. Penn State has more talent than MSU (though the Nittany Lions are banged up), but so much of winning in college football is about preparation and focus throughout the week.
3. MSU’s offensive line against Penn State’s pass rush
The Spartans’ offensive line found its footing in the second half at Minnesota, after allowing six first-half sacks. Penn State hasn’t gotten to the quarterback as often as the Gophers, but the Nittany Lions’ edge guys, Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zuriah Fisher, and defensive tackle Zane Durant, are all capable pass rushers, which helped Penn State sack Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza three times and hurry him a ton last week. If MSU doesn’t shore up its pass protection from the opening drive, this could be a rough day for the Spartans offensively, and one that sees MSU forced to use multiple quarterbacks.
4. Can Nick Marsh break loose
Nick Marsh’s numbers this season don’t explain how scary he is to defenses. How defenses are covering him does. He is getting star treatment game after game, otherwise he’d have more than 46 catches for 554 yards and five touchdowns this season. Those are good numbers. But he’s yet to have that game where it doesn’t matter what a defense does, he’s just too much to handle. I think he’s got that game in him. Penn State’s pass defense is among its strengths. The Nittany Lions are more vulnerable against the run. Still, MSU could use a memorable day from Marsh and a little joy from their star in a dark season.
5. The Spartan Stadium crowd
I was asked early this week whether I thought the crowd at Spartan Stadium for Saturday’s game would be larger than 30,000. It’s going to be warm day for mid-November, it’s the final game at Spartan Stadium of the season — I think the crowd will be closer to 50,000 at kickoff, even if the start of firearms hunting season chips away a couple thousand. If I’m wrong, if Spartan Stadium feels barren and unwelcoming to the home team, or if things go wrong early for MSU and the crowd gets surly and then sparse, this might not be a home-field advantage at all. I think people want to support these players, they’re curious about Milivojevic. They want to see this team win a non-vacated Big Ten game for the first time since 2021. But we’ll see. Fans’ feelings about this team, coaching staff and program are all over the place.
Prediction
If Penn State is locked in and ready for a fight, the Nittany Lions might be too much for MSU. This is, after all, a team that was once considered the most talented team in the country, before everything went wrong — starting QB out for the season, coach fired, yada yada. We’ve seen MSU rise up and play good games at home against Penn State in the past. Maybe that happens again. The Spartans certainly are in a better spot, coming off the bye, than Penn State is, coming off games against Indiana and Ohio State.
Make it: Penn State 25, MSU 20
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
