The Nevada football team hosts San Jose State on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Spartans with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
San Jose State (3-6, 2-3 MW) at Nevada (1-8, 0-5)
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
Where: Mackay Stadium (capacity 27,000)
Surface: FieldTurf
Weather: High of 54; low of 40; 25 percent chance of rain
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/105.7 FM (also on the Varsity Network)
Online: None
Betting line: San Jose State favored by 9.5; total of 52.5
All-time series: Nevada leads, 23-12-2
Last matchup: San Jose State won 35-31 on Oct. 5, 2024 (in San Jose)
Three keys to the game
1. A fast first 15 minutes: Nevada has had some brutal starts in recent games, falling into a 35-0 halftime hole against San Diego State and 41-0 deficit at intermission at Utah State last week. Overall this season, the Wolf Pack has been outscored 65-12 in the first quarter and 102-45 in the second quarter. That’s a 167-57 deficit in the first half, or an average halftime disadvantage of 12.2 points. Nevada must get off to a better start against San Jose State to put some pressure on the Spartans, who also will look for a good first quarter after posting three turnovers and a safety in their first five possessions last week against Air Force. Nevada’s offense is not one that can rally out of big holes, so a fast 15 in the first is imperative.
2. Staunch red zone defense: San Jose State is among the FBS leaders in passing yards and can run the ball, too, so the Spartans should move the ball against the Wolf Pack. They have against almost every team they’ve faced this season. Only Texas has held San Jose State under 383 yards, with the Spartans’ 451 yards per game the second most in the MW and 23rd most in the nation. Where San Jose State has struggled in the red zone. The Spartans rank 95th in the nation in red zone offense, scoring on 80 percent of their appearances inside the 20 with a 54.3 percent touchdown rate. Both are below average and exacerbated by kicking issues (the team is just 10-of-18 on field-goal attempts). Nevada has done a solid job of keeping teams out of the end zone when they reach the red zone. That must continue.
3. Get something from the pass game: San Jose State’s biggest weakness is its pass defense. But can Nevada expose that weakness? The Wolf Pack has one of the nation’s worst passing offenses (third worst, using pass efficiency). Meanwhile, the Spartans have allowed non-triple-option teams to pass for an average of 311 yards per game. Even Wyoming threw for 311 yards against San Jose State. While Nevada needs to establish the run to take some pressure off true freshman quarterback Carter Jones, the way to beat San Jose State’s defense is through the air. Jones has been Nevada’s top passer in practice but that hasn’t translated to games with the rookie throwing for one touchdown and seven interceptions in four starts. The Wolf Pack needs to get more from its pass attack in this game.
Prediction
San Jose State 28, Nevada 17: The last five games between these teams have been extremely tight with four of those games decided by one score and the fifth being the 2020 classic with a spot in the MW title game on the line. With the shifting MW membership, this is a burgeoning rivalry and one that Nevada has dominated at Mackay Stadium. The Wolf Pack has a 10-game home winning streak over San Jose State with the Spartans’ last win in Reno coming in 2000. To continue that streak, Nevada’s offense needs to play at a level we’ve not seen this season, and the Wolf Pack defense needs to get multiple turnovers, something it has done just once this year. Season record: 7-2 (straight up); 5-4 (against the spread)
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
