- Time and date: Wednesday, November 19 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: UB Stadium — Amherst, NY
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-1.5)
- Over/under: 40.5
- All-time series: Miami (OH) leads, 17-9
- Last meeting: Miami (OH) 23, Buffalo 10 — November 15, 2023
- Current streak: Miami (OH), 1 (2023)
It’s a MAC championship elimination game. The Miami RedHawks (5-5, 4-2 MAC) and Buffalo Bulls (5-5, 4-2 MAC) sport identical overall and conference records heading into this critical Wednesday night matchup. One will attain bowl eligibility and remain alive in a crowded MAC title race. The other is effectively eliminated and is on the brink of missing the postseason.
Miami is still playing for its third-consecutive MAC Championship Game appearance, while Buffalo seeks its first since 2020.
Miami (OH) RedHawks outlook
Miami (OH) DE Adam Trick is the team leader in sacks. The RedHawks rank top 10 nationally in sacks per game. Getty Images
Miami’s season has been extremely streaky. The RedHawks started 0-3, then followed that up with a 5-0 record, and now they’re back to .500 after an 0-2 showing in midweek games. The RedHawks look to break a rare November funk — which is usually the most prosperous time under head coach Chuck Martin.
In order to do so, Miami needs an offensive spark after losing 24-3 to Toledo last week. In that game, quarterback Dequan Finn was a surprising scratch from the lineup, and that’s because he is no longer part of the team, focusing on NFL Draft prep as the season winds to a close. Without the veteran seventh-year senior, Miami turns to Henry Hesson, a fifth-year senior with three starts as a RedHawk under his belt.
Hesson has 489 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 32-of-76 showing (42.1 percent) this year, and he’ll look to gain more comfortability in the offense as the new clear-cut starter. When Miami passes, it prefers to take vertical shots, and that’s evidenced by Kam Perry’s season stat-line. The wide receiver averages 25.0 yards per catch — the most in the FBS among receivers with at least 20 receptions. Perry can often be found open downfield with a quick release and a knack for confusing defenders on double moves, and Miami needs his explosive playmaking to show up in this critical matchup.
Other focal points on offense include wide receiver Cole Weaver, who has stepped up recently with 231 receiving yards (60 percent of his season production) in his last three games. On the ground, the RedHawks look to bulldoze the Bulls through a backfield built on a foundation of powerful backs. Jordan Brunson and D’Shawntae Jones are among the main ball-carriers leading the 76th-ranked FBS rushing attack.
Miami is more renowned for what it does on the defensive side, and it only allowed more than 24 points in one MAC game all year — a 44-30 win over Eastern Michigan. This group certainly did enough to defeat Toledo last week, forcing three turnovers and just one scoring drive exceeding 50 yards, but the offense needed to pull more weight in the game of complimentary football.
One of the most noticeable aspects about this defense is the sheer star power in the safety room, with Eli Blakey, Silas Walters, and Eli Coppess around the ball on a majority of plays. The trio combines for seven interceptions, and Blakey and Walters each have seven pass breakups apiece. With all that havoc in the secondary, it’s no surprise Miami allows under 200 passing yards per game on a 56.5 completion rate.
The coverage skills extend to the linebacker room where Corban Hondru is making a First Team All-MAC case. Hondru has three picks on the year, in addition to a team-high 83 tackles and six tackles for loss — generating 17 and 14 tackles in two of his last three appearances. Another force in the front is defensive end Adam Trick. Miami is top 20 in the FBS with 2.6 sacks per game, and Trick is the quick pass rusher leading this charge with 6.5 as an individual.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 28: Buffalo Bulls wide receiver Victor Snow (0) looks on after scoring a touchdown during the college football game between the Buffalo Bulls and Minnesota Golden Gophers on August 28th, 2025, at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Buffalo hasn’t been the most predictable team in the MAC, with its performance fluctuating greatly from week to week. The Bulls started MAC play at 3-0, needing late-game heroics to upend Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and UMass. Buffalo was fortunate to clear that entire slate thanks to the amount of 50-50 plays it properly executed down the stretch, but in recent weeks, the Bulls haven’t been as fortunate.
Buffalo committed five turnovers in each of its last two MAC losses — one to Akron on Oct. 25 and one to Central Michigan last Wednesday. Many of the turnovers stem from a lack of quality pass protection, as the Bulls surrendered nine combined sacks in those defeats.
Starting quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson injured his ankle in the fourth quarter last Wednesday, but head coach Pete Lembo anticipates that he’ll be fine, per his weekly press conference. Roberson’s performance is very indicative of how Buffalo operates as a whole. When the quarterback fires for 270 yards, the Bulls are 3-0, but they’re 1-4 vs. FBS competition otherwise. However, Roberson’s mobility has been notably limited recently and the recent ankle injury could further limit that. He had 148 rushing yards in his first three starts yet has -12 since.
Another predictor of Buffalo’s performances is running back Al-Jay Henderson. When he rushes for 100 yards, Buffalo is 6-0 all-time. Henderson, who was vital down the stretch when Buffalo won its last five matchups in 2024, looks to get back to that level. He produced his first 100-yard game of 2025 two games ago vs. Bowling Green, and the Bulls need that ground presence against a stellar Miami (OH) aerial defense.
Buffalo is also equipped with a dynamic receiver tandem in Nik McMillan and Victor Snow. McMillan is on a tear with four-straight 7+ reception, 100-yard outings, including a 177-yard outburst vs. Akron in October. The 5’8” Snow is a perfect foil, often creating impressive separation in the end zone en route to a team-high seven receiving touchdowns. Both have exactly 49 receptions on the year, so both receivers have to be accounted for with somewhat equal weighting.
No Buffalo player invokes more fear into an opponent than No. 2 on the defense. Inside linebacker Red Murdock is a candidate for an All-American selection. He ranks second in the FBS with six forced fumbles and is the all-time career leader in the category with 17. Murdock, who finished second in tackles a year ago, is a candidate to lead the category this year. With 114 stops on the season, he is eight away from the No. 1 spot on the leaderboard, and many of those tackles are behind the line of scrimmage — 12.5 this year, to be specific.
Buffalo will need to exude its linebacker depth. Outside linebacker and second-leading tackler Dion Crawford’s status is uncertain due to an injury, which may thrust Mitchell Gonser into a more significant role. Other names to watch in the sturdy front of the nation’s 34th-ranked defense include Kobe Stewart and Junior Poyser. Those two defensive linemen combine for 10 sacks on a unit which is sixth in the FBS in sacks per game.
The Bulls’ pass defense numbers are almost identical to Miami. The only difference is Buffalo has half the interceptions. Solomon Brown and Jalen McNair are among the defensive backs looking to create havoc plays pitted against a Miami passing attack struggling immensely with accuracy.
This is going to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, where some of the All-MAC caliber defenders make their case for postseason accolades. The defensive star power is strong in this one with Adam Trick, Corban Hondru, Silas Walters, and Eli Blakey for Miami, and Red Murdock, Kobe Stewart, and Mitchell Gonser for Buffalo. Both teams have been turnover prone lately while struggling to move the ball consistently through either facet on offense.
This one will come down to the wire, and Miami capitalizes well against turnover-prone teams, checking in with 16 takeaways on the season. The RedHawks end their November skid and remain alive for a fourth MAC Championship appearance (and third-straight) in the prosperous Chuck Martin era.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 17, Buffalo 16
