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Michigan vs Middle Tennessee State basketball prediction and keys to the game

Michigan basketball coach Dusty May on how he deals with sports betting

Michigan Wolverines basketball coach Dusty May on sports betting and why he doesn’t like prop bets being offered, Monday, Nov. 17, 2025 in Ann Arbor.

Three Michigan basketball thoughts and a prediction vs. Middle Tennessee State for the game Wednesday, Nov. 19, at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor.

Yaxel Lendeborg must get going

In two exhibition games against solid competition – Cincinnati and St. John’s – Michigan’s standout transfer Yaxel Lendeborg averaged 28 points and 11 rebounds per game.

However, in three regular-season games, Lendeborg, an NBA prospect, is posting 11.7 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, not nearly what was expected of the preseason All-American.

He sustained a hand injury just before the opener against Oakland and is playing multiple roles – at times on the wing when U-M goes with its behemoth lineup, often the four and even some five when coach Dusty May goes small – as he continues to figure out where he fits best.

“We have to figure out a way to get Yaxel in space better, and he has to trust his jump shot more,” May said earlier in the week. “He’s a good shooter that is not trusting his 3-point shot. When he’s open, he needs to shoot it.”

Lendeborg has described himself as a pass-first player. At UAB, when he averaged nearly 18 points per game last season, he was the focal point and primary option. Now, he’s surrounded by a number of high-level players and leaning more into his instincts to get others involved.

One way to get more comfortable would be having him push the ball up the court.

“I don’t think I’m being aggressive enough in that lineup, because I feel like the paint is going to be clogged,” Lendeborg told reporters after the TCU win. “I just need to find a space where I can go and play for my teammates, regardless if it’s scoring or passing. My shots are going to start falling eventually, so I’m going to be looking for that more.”

Michigan’s rotation quest

Michigan is still searching for optimal lineup combinations.

The fact it can go big, small or somewhere in between should be an advantage to counter what opponents want to do. For now, it’s a bit of a hurdle as the Wolverines learn which combinations seem to work best together.

“We have some combinations that have played well together on both sides of the ball,” May said. “We have some other lineups that have been good on one side of the ball but not so efficient or proficient on the other side of the ball. I can see us tweaking for longer than we would like to, but that’s part of it.”

The big lineup of Lendeborg-Morez Johnson Jr.-Aday Mara has been dominant on defense allowing a miniscule 0.37 points per possession. But the offense has lacked spacing and hasn’t produced even one point per trip down the court.

Playing through freshman Trey McKenney has worked and so has Elliot Cadeau facilitating with 7.3 assists. The more this group plays together, the more it will figure out what does and doesn’t work. Facing a mid-major program, albeit a talented one, gives Michigan further opportunity for that.

Middle Tennessee State breakdown

MTSU is 3-0 for the first time in 6 years. Two blowout wins came over NAIA Milligan and Division III Webster (by a combined 105 points), and last Wednesday’s win came at Evansville, 77-72.

The Blue Raiders have used their size advantage to average 34 points per game in the paint early on, but that will be a far tougher task against Michigan, which thrives in the paint. MTSU likes to shoot from 3-point range, attempting 107 3s already – 48.4% of all shot attempts – and has 11 players averaging at least 10 points per game.

MTSU has beaten Michigan in the only previous matchup, 86-83, in 1986. The Blue Raiders knocked out 2-seed Michigan State as a 15-seed in 2016 March Madness.

Michigan vs Middle Tennessee State prediction

Finally back home against an undersized team, the Wolverines should thrive with an advantage in talent and size. Expect them to find Lendeborg early and for Johnson to hound the offensive glass. This will also be the day Nimari Burnett gets his 3-point shot dialed in and make at least three 3s. The pick: Michigan 89, Middle Tennessee State 64.

Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

Make “Hail Yes!” your go-to Wolverines podcast, available anywhere you listen to podcasts (Apple, Spotify).

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