Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki looks ahead to the next big election on the calendar. Plus, we dive into Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House.
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— Adam Wollner
The next election that will provide midterm clues
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
A solidly Republican congressional district in Middle Tennessee will provide some fresh midterm clues in a special election set for two weeks from today.
In theory, the race should be a layup for the GOP and its nominee, Matt Van Epps. Tennessee’s 7th District, which takes in parts of Nashville and its suburbs and stretches through rural counties to the south and west, voted for President Donald Trump by 22 points last year. No Democrat in the country currently represents a district that’s nearly as pro-Trump. The closest would be Maine’s 2nd District, which Trump carried by nine points and is now represented by Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.
But there are extenuating factors that make this race at least a little volatile. For one, the broader political atmosphere — at least for the moment — has turned on the GOP. Trump’s approval rating has dropped this fall to the lowest level of his second term. That decline may have been spurred by October’s government shutdown, which the public blamed more on Trump and his party than on Democrats. And the two states with governor’s races this month, New Jersey and Virginia, each produced Democratic landslides that caught both parties by surprise.
Then consider that the Tennessee race is a special election, where turnout will be lower than normal and an extra-motivated party base can make a real difference. The evidence is clear that Democrats have the more energized base right now. The four previous House special elections this year all saw Democratic candidates perform between 16 and 24 net points better than Kamala Harris did in last year’s presidential election.
As you can see, a similar Democratic overperformance in the Tennessee race would make it potentially competitive. And the primary results already suggested a motivation imbalance. Despite the district’s overall GOP bent, turnout for the Democratic primary was just over 31,000, not that far off the 36,854 who participated on the GOP side.
A strong showing on Dec. 2 would bolster Democratic optimism heading into 2026, just as it would amplify concern among Republicans. Midterm elections are not really waged on a level playing field to begin with; in all but three cases over the last century, the opposition party has gained seats — often in large numbers.
And Republicans face an additional hurdle. Trump was powered back to the White House in part by “infrequent” voters who were drawn to him but who have shown little interest in backing other Republican candidates in low-profile elections like this one.
There’s one other extenuating factor at work in the Tennessee race. In Aftyn Behn, Democrats have chosen to nominate a candidate who was dubbed “the AOC of Tennessee” by members of her own party. A state legislator who’s previously been backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, Behn is particularly vulnerable to attacks in a district that has little taste for left-wing politics.
Republicans have made no secret of their plans to tie Democratic candidates across the country in 2026 to far-left party leaders like New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. If they end up holding this Tennessee seat decisively — and if Behn fails to make the kinds of gains Democrats have made in previous special elections — it may suggest they’re on to something.
Related: A Trump-aligned super PAC is starting to air TV ads in the race to boost Van Epps, per Owen Auston-Babcock. And The New York Times reports that former Vice President Kamala Harris hit the trail today for Behn.
Trump offers Saudi crown prince a warm welcome
By Babak Dehghanpisheh, Katherine Doyle and Monica Alba
In his first visit to the White House since the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Mohammed bin Salman received a warm welcome from President Donald Trump, who contradicted U.S. intelligence and said the Saudi crown prince “knew nothing” about the killing.
“You’re mentioning somebody that was extremely controversial,” Trump said in response to questions from a journalist about Khashoggi. “A lot of people didn’t like that gentleman that you’re talking about. Whether you like him or didn’t like him, things happen, but [bin Salman] knew nothing about it, and we can leave it at that.”
Trump began his remarks by saying that he was proud of the crown prince in “terms of human rights and everything else.”
Crown Prince Mohammed, 40, became an international pariah after the 2018 murder of Khashoggi, a fierce critic of his government. At the time, Trump defended the Saudi government even after the CIA concluded that the crown prince himself ordered the killing.
The crown prince said in 2019 that he took “full responsibility” for the Khashoggi killing since it happened on his watch, but denied ordering it.
Today, he defended the kingdom’s probe into Khashoggi’s murder, which he said included internal reforms. A Saudi court sentenced five people to death for their involvement in the killing.
“It’s been painful for us in Saudi Arabia,” the crown price said, promising that “we are doing our best that this doesn’t happen again.”
Hanan Elatr Khashoggi, the late journalist’s widow, responded to Trump on X: “There is no justification to murder my husband. While Jamal was a good transparent and brave man many people may not have agreed with his opinions and desire for freedom of the press. The Crown Prince said he was sorry so he should meet me, apologize and compensate me for the murder of my husband.”
Crown Prince Mohammed’s visit will be seen more broadly as a move toward acceptance back into the diplomatic fold.
“He’s a different kind of figure now. Obviously, the questions about the manner of his rule and internal repression, those things haven’t gone away. But he’s a changed figure; it’s a changed moment. And, I think, important symbolically in that sense,” said Michael Wahid Hanna, the U.S. program director at the International Crisis Group, a global nonprofit organization based in Brussels that works to prevent conflicts.
He added: “He’s central to what this administration wants to do in the region.”
Read more →
🗞️ Today’s other top stories
- 📝 Epstein saga: The House voted 427-1 to pass a measure to compel the Justice Department to release all its records related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, sending it to the Senate. During a news conference with Epstein victims and their families, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said Trump’s handling of the case has been “destructive” to his MAGA movement.
- ⬅️ Epstein saga, cont.: Larry Summers, who was treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, said he will be stepping back from public commitments following the recent publication of his correspondence with Epstein. Read more →
- ☑️ Succession scheme: The House voted to rebuke retiring Rep. Chuy Garcia over his ploy to handpick his Democratic successor for his Chicago-area congressional seat. Twenty-three Democrats joined nearly all Republicans in voting in favor of the resolution. Read more →
- 🗺️ Redistricting roundup: A federal court blocked Texas Republicans’ redrawn congressional map from going into effect before the midterms. Gov. Greg Abbott said the state would appeal the ruling. Read more →
- ⚖️ In the courts: A Tennessee judge ruled the Trump administration’s deployment of the National Guard in Memphis is unlawful. Read more →
- 🏫 Education shakeup: The Education Department is shifting some of its biggest grant programs to other federal agencies, a major step in the Trump administration’s plan to dismantle the department. Read more →
- 🌍 Gaza update: Trump’s Gaza peace plan was passed by a majority vote at the United Nations, though world powers were still divided over whether it can convert a fragile ceasefire into the long-term solution that has eluded the Middle East. Read more →
- 🗽 If you can make it there: New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani said he reached out to the White House to arrange a meeting with Trump. Read more →
- Follow live politics updates →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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