Richard Mann delivers his verdict on the Ashes, which begins in Perth in the early hours of Friday morning – check out his full series preview and best bets here.
Cricket tips: The Ashes, Australia v England
2pts Ollie Pope top England series batsman at 10/1 (General)
1pt Mitchell Starc player of the series (Compton-Miller medal) at 12/1 (General)
1pt Marnus Labuschagne player of the series (Compton-Miller medal) at 16/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Jamie Smith England player of the series at 8/1 (bet365)
1pt Jamie Smith fastest fifty in the series at 8/1 (bet365)
1pt Alex Carey fastest fifty in the series at 20/1 (bet365)
*Already advised 2pts Marnus Labuschagne top Australia series batsman at 9/1
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Whatever the sport, issues of legacy, of greatness, are settled on the very biggest stages.
Rory McIlroy’s realisation of a lifelong dream at Augusta National in April will be what defines his career. Had he not won the Masters this year, perhaps it would have been his devastating loss there in 2011 that would’ve been remembered as much as any of his other four majors, or the six Ryder Cups.
Ronnie O’Sullivan has enjoyed more defining moments than most, but snooker’s greatest will forever be remembered for his 147 maximum break in five minutes and eight seconds at the 1997 World Championship. ‘Unbelievable’ beamed Dennis Taylor on commentary. Unforgettable for those who witnessed it.
For cricketers from England and Australia, it’s the Ashes that ultimately defines careers. Great things can be achieved through the shorter forms of the game, but greatness itself? Even now, as franchise cricket gnaws away at the fabric of the sport, it remains difficult to believe it can exist without this. Ashes cricket just cuts deeper.
Brendon McCullum’s brand of Bazball cricket has transformed the English game. It has breathed new life into the Test format, and we can look forward to this winter’s Ashes series in Australia not just with optimism that England can compete Down Under for the first time since 2010/2011, maybe even win, but also with excitement and the understanding that whatever the end result, our Bazball boys won’t go down without throwing plenty of punches and giving their supporters a fun ride along the way.
But come January 8, McCullum the coach will ultimately be judged not on his style of play, or how he has dragged England from the doldrums of four years ago. We will all judge on the result at the final bell.
Win the Ashes, become a hero forever. Fail again, and a few years from now, few will remember McCullum as he clears his desk and begins to ponder his next challenge. In the end, it will be the Ashes that defines McCullum and his team of Bazballers.
Huge Ashes task awaits England
There is no mistaking the enormity of the task facing England. No England team has won a Test match in Australia since that 2010/2011 series, losing nine out of the 10 matches, and they could only just salvage a drawn series against Australia at home in 2023.
England’s attacking, dynamic brand of cricket has won plenty of admirers since McCullum took charge, but another summer has just passed where they were unable to beat one of the top-tier nations, a 2-2 drawn series with a transitioning India side proving highly watchable, but not the final result England would’ve expected on home soil.
Nevertheless, in Joe Root they have a genuinely world-class batsman in their ranks whose record in Australia isn’t anywhere near as bad as the local press would have you believe. Root currently averages 35.68 in Australia. For comparison, the great Ricky Ponting only averaged 26.48 in Test matches in India.
In fact, Root remains the cornerstone of this England batting line-up, but the prospect of some sporting pitches and a high-class Australian seam attack is a concern for dashing opening pair Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett. Much will be expected of Harry Brook, but it’s worth noting that he has yet to tour Australia, or somewhere comparable like South Africa, and I have just a few concerns about him against the short ball on these big grounds.
In theory at least, the bowling ought to stack up well for Australian conditions. At the time of writing, Mark Wood is said to be fit following a brief hamstring scare in last week’s warm-up fixture against England Lions, and both he, Jofra Archer and Josh Tongue possess genuine pace. There is depth, too, with the likes of Brydon Carse and Gus Atkinson.
But I keep finding myself coming back to conditions. Give them fast, hard, flat pitches we would usually expect in Australia, and I reckon England’s band of happy bashers would go very well with the bat, while there is an abundance of pace in that squad that can blast open games with the ball.
The issue is that this just hasn’t been the case in Australia over the last few years. The ball has consistently moved sideways as a diet of green pitches have been served up, perfectly illustrated by 17 wickets falling on day one of the first Test against India in Perth last winter.
It’s in such circumstances that you worry about England. We’ve seen time and time again that when the ball moves laterally on pitches with something there for the seamers, their gung-ho approach can quickly come unstuck, and the recent 3-0 ODI series defeat in New Zealand on some tricky surfaces again highlighted that.
With that ball, the master skills possessed by experienced performers Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland could trump England’s one-dimensional, all-out-pace method of attack, but the first two of that Australian quartet won’t make the series opener in Perth because of injury. At which stage of the series that pair are fit to return could well decide its outcome.
One thing I’ve questioned since the forced retirement of James Anderson was whether England’s new-look attack would be able to hold length for long periods and control the run rate when consistency hitting the top of off stump is the order of the day – a priceless skill if the pitches are indeed sporting and don’t require anything else.
If adding Cummins and Hazlewood to the equation, a quick look at the individual career economy rates on both sides paints a bleak picture for England, and it’s here where Australia again appear to hold the better cards.
However, in Perth at least, England will sense an opportunity in light of those big misses for the hosts, for all I reckon likely debutant Brenden Doggett has all the attributes to make a fine Test match bowler.
For the first time in a decade, there are some question marks surrounding the Australian batting. Usman Khawaja is expected to retire at the conclusion of the series, while we don’t yet know the identity of his opening partner in Perth. Though still a wonderful player, Steve Smith is not getting any younger, and Travis Head, the leading runscorer for Australia four years ago, has been short of runs of late.
Can Labuschagne lead Australia to glory?
The decision to recall MARNUS LABUSCHAGNE looks a shrewd one, though, and the manner in which he has peeled off five hundreds for Queensland already this season would suggest this is a man not only hungry to take himself back to the top of the ICC Test batting rankings, but one that is fully in sync with his game.
The home batting suddenly looks so much stronger with Labuschagne back in that top order, and all-rounder Cameron Green fit again, so I’d still prefer the hosts to win the series, fearful that England might have too many bad sessions in them to win a series of this magnitude away from home.
That’s not to say England can’t win a Test match along the way, perhaps even two. When that top seven clicks, which it is sure to do at some stage, they could well blow their opponents away, but the storm will be short-lived, and were it not for Hazlewood’s late omission from the first Test, I would’ve been backing Australia to win the series 3-1 in the correct score market.
3-2 is also a runner, but Australia has seen plenty of rain in the last few months, and six draws in the last 11 matches at the SCG suggests there could be a drawn match in this series, as there was in the 2023 renewal in England.
Crucially, England now have a huge opportunity to start the series with a win this week, and those wanting to back Australia either outright or in the correct score market may be better waiting until we are sure the hosts can call in those bowling reinforcements later in the series. That might be when the real value becomes available.
Spinning back to Labuschagne, and it’s worth noting that readers of my antepost column will have hopefully snapped up the 9/1 about the right-hander to be top Australia series batsman, with 5/1 now the best price on the high street.
That looks about right, if maybe still a point too big, and I remember at the time of publication my editor quipping, ‘this reads like it should be a 3pt-bet, maybe more, rather than 2pts.’
Perhaps he was correct, but we are on the right track, and actually, I don’t mind taking LABUSCHAGNE to be PLAYER OF THE SERIES (Compton-Miller medal), given I’m still leaning towards Australia, and that everything is in place for a redemption story that would be so typical of Ashes cricket.
To my mind, Labuschagne, who averages over fifty at home, is one of the key men for Australia, and if they do indeed retain the urn, I suspect he will have a big hand to play.
Similar comments also apply to MITCHELL STARC who was leading wicket-taker on either side in the 2023 Ashes series in England, finishing with 23 wickets despite finding himself benched for the first game when Boland was preferred.
Since then, Starc has been one of the first names on the Australia team sheet, once again taking more wickets than any other Australian in the recent 3-0 away win in the Caribbean, when bringing up 400 Test wickets on that tour.
The left-arm paceman has been a brilliant performer for a long time now, a genuine wicket-taker, but what is often forgotten is his durability and ability to keep turning out and delivering high-speed spells long into matches and at the back-end of series.
To my mind, he is the most durable of the Australian quicks at present, with Hazlewood’s latest injury setback highlighting the fragility of his body, Boland now heading towards 37 years of age, and Cummins currently recovering from a stress injury to his back.
Consequently, Australia will be desperate for Starc to play all five Tests. He hasn’t been missed in the top Australia series bowler market (2/1 best price), but he’s highly likely to take plenty of wickets and play a leading role throughout.
If you still favour Australia, my advice is to also take the 16/1 available for Starc to be PLAYER OF THE SERIES (Compton-Miller medal).
Back Smith to star in debut Ashes series
For those who bet with bet365 and Boylesports, there are a couple of very interesting side markets to consider, with TEAM PLAYER OF THE SERIES the first to prick my interest.
Two men I’m hoping for big things from in the coming weeks, from an England perspective anyway, are Ollie Pope, and JAMIE SMITH who looks ripe for a big series from number seven.
Regular readers of these pages will know I’ve long been one of the founding members of the Jamie Smith fan club, and those who watched him closely before he earned international recognition will have not been surprised with how well he has taken to Test cricket.
He looks a natural, and as I’ve said many times before, there are shades of Kevin Pietersen to Smith’s game: a tall man with an incredible reach, thus allowing him to make good length deliveries into half-volleys to hit down the ground, or rock back deep into his crease and open up the leg side. Smith is the embodiment of Bazball, and from only 15 Tests, he already has two hundreds and six fifties, and an average of 48.86.
Those are elite numbers, especially for a number seven, and Smith’s swashbuckling 184 not out from 207 balls against India at Edgbaston last summer demonstrates just what this young man is capable of, especially when the ball is older and there is the need for a fearless counterattack.
Though untested in Ashes cricket, and of course in Australia, having been brought up at the Oval, historically once of the quickest and bounciest pitches in England, Smith ought to be more suited by likely conditions than most in the England line-up.
And there is relatively recent form for keepers to make an impact in Ashes series. In the 2013/2014 series Down Under, Brad Haddin scored 493 runs at 61.62 as he made a number of telling contributions from number seven, while in the famous 2010/2011 away win, England’s Matt Prior averaged a touch over fifty.
If the new ball has a big say in the coming weeks, as it has done in Australia over the last few years, Smith could have plenty of work to do in the middle order, something that suits his counterattacking style so well.
I’m expecting big things from the Surrey man and make him a bet at 8/1 to be one of England’s shining lights on this tour.
The other side market I like is FASTEST FIFTY IN THE SERIES, and Smith again gets the vote, once more at 8/1.
If, as expected, Smith does do well, we know he’ll score his runs quickly. His strike-rate currently stands at 75.22, and all his eight fifty-plus scores in Test cricket have come at a good lick – the last two fifties coming from 43 and 73 deliveries respectively.
That’s put Smith well in range of winning this market, with Travis Head having been fastest in the 2023 Ashes series in England with a 48-ball half-century at Lord’s, and again in Australia four years ago from 53 deliveries. On form grounds, and the fact he’s only a 9/2 chance, I’m against Head this time.
Brook heads the betting at 4/1, but I’d rather add ALEX CAREY to the staking plan at 20/1, the dashing left-hander having made one hundred and two fifties from seven Tests in 2025 so far.
Carey’s strike-rate this year is a very healthy 78.93, those numbers looking all the better when considering just how tough conditions were for batting on that recent tour of the West Indies. One of Carey’s two fifties in that series came from just 40 balls – easily the fastest recorded across the three matches.
At the prices, the red-hot South Australian looks well worth a spin.
Pope can seize the moment
Finally, as hinted at earlier, I want to roll the dice on OLLIE POPE to be TOP ENGLAND SERIES BATSMAN.
The 10/1 somewhat jumps off the page about a number three batsman who warmed up for the series with scores of 100 and 90 against England Lions last week, but Pope evidently has his detractors.
A poor series here four years ago might be part of the reason for that, but the emergence of Jacob Bethell has also put him under pressure, that before he was replaced by Harry Brook as vice-captain ahead of this series.
If that demotion, or indeed the emerging presence of Bethell, has knocked him, he certainly isn’t showing it, and Pope’s two knocks last week, along with Bethell’s poor ODI series in New Zealand, means there was only ever one winner for the number three spot.
And that looks the right call. Pope might not yet have grabbed a series by the scruff of its neck and made it his own, but he now has eight Test hundreds from number three and an average of 41.60 in that position – numbers England would have gladly taken from any number three in the years following Jonathan Trott’s retirement.
In all, Pope has done a pretty good job, but the way in which he has dominated County Cricket has left us wanting more, with the suspicion that he is a better player than we have so far seen in an England shirt. The reason England have backed Pope for so long is that just a few years ago, most observers viewed him as the second best player in England after Root judging on what we were seeing from him in domestic cricket.
The likes of Brook might have moved past him now, but in many ways, there is a touch of Michael Vaughan about Pope. A silky technician who was always easy on the eye, Vaughan hadn’t fully stamped his imprint on Test cricket until the 2001/2002 Ashes in Australia when he compiled three centuries.
It was a coming-of-age series for Vaughan when he finally fully delivered on what coach Duncan Fletcher had always believed he was capable of. On the biggest stage, Vaughan came good, as Ian Bell did in the 2013 home Ashes when he stood tall and also made a trio of hundreds.
I’ve always felt Pope was capable of something similar. Ask those who watch County Cricket regularly and they’ll tell you the same. Things didn’t go well for any Englishman here four years ago, but those experiences won’t have been lost on the now 27-year-old, and it feels like somewhere along the way the Ollie Pope that made that outstanding 196 in Hyderabad, one of the best Test innings ever played in an England shirt, will go on a run where he finally takes his game and his standing to the next level.
The fact he averages 88.66 in three games in South Africa where conditions are fast and bouncy shouldn’t be lost on anyone, and though he missed the final three Tests of the 2023 Ashes through injury, he had started that series with promising hands of 31 and 42.
Root apart, who will start as favourite for this market, Pope isn’t alone in this England batting line-up in regards to having questions to answer – be it Ben Stokes’ body or his technique against Nathan Lyon, Brook against the short ball, or Crawley against the new ball.
If you’re inclined to take Root on, which at the prices I can, Pope certainty has upside at 10/1 in a race that for my money is otherwise wide-open.
I meant what I said at the top of the page, that this series promises to be career-defining. Not just for McCullum and Stokes, but also for the likes of Smith and Pope as they strive for something that no amount of longevity guarantees: legacy and greatness that can only come from Ashes glory.
Australia have tasted so much of that glory in recent battles between the old enemy that this mighty side will no doubt expect to earn some more on their home patch in the coming weeks, but England have two richly-talented players in Smith and Pope who can certainly leave their mark on a series that promises much.
Posted at 1600 GMT on 16/11/25
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