Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Stanford Cardinal and the Seattle Redhawks.
Maples Pavilion gets the late window and it feels a little spicier than the number says. Stanford is 4–0 again, working under new expectations with Ebuka Okorie already drawing national buzz. Seattle shows up 3–1 with a heater backcourt, a one-possession home loss to Cal Poly, and just enough toughness to keep this from feeling like a routine buy game. This is not a ballroom; it’s Stanford’s floor, Stanford’s rims and a double-digit spread daring the dog to hold up. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Stanford Cardinal and the Seattle Redhawks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Seattle’s efficiency is the first thing that jumps. They sit at 83.0 points per game with a plus 11.2 margin, hitting 54.1% from the floor and 41.8% from three. Brayden Maldonado is living at 23.3 points on 62.7% shooting and nearly 60% from deep, already functioning as a late-clock problem rather than a pure system guard. Will Heimbrodt adds 17.3 and 6.7 boards on 62.5% shooting and 55.6% from outside, letting them stretch you with size instead of just small-guard volume. Maleek Arington is the tempo lever at 5.8 assists and 2.2 steals with only around 11 team turnovers per night, so the ball usually finds the right hand before the possession dies. They’re lighter on the glass at 31.0 rebounds, which only sharpens the emphasis on clean first-shot offense and early-clock threes. When Seattle’s first actions hit, it looks like an elite mid-major attack, not a sacrificial check.
Stanford answers with depth, size and its own scoring punch. They average 87.5 and allow 70.3, a plus 17.2 margin, and they’ve already both front-ran and come from behind in this building. Okorie sits third nationally at 25.5 per game and punishes every coverage; Chisom Okpara adds 16.5 as a bruising wing who lives in the gaps created by that gravity. Seven-footer AJ Rohosy gives them six or seven rebounds nightly and size Seattle has not seen yet, anchoring a front line that tilts most nights’ rebounding math. They shoot 46.5% from the floor and 33.3% from three, but the bigger story is pressure: 16 turnovers forced on Montana State and a perimeter that now digs, stunts and recovers with real intent. Opponents are still at 46.6% overall and 35.4% from deep, which means the defense leans on disruption and size more than pure suffocation—another reason this matchup feels more like a shootout with counters than a slow suffocation.
Seattle vs. Stanford pick, best bet
The Stanford -10.5 case lives in those hidden columns. Seattle is already minus 16 in free throws made on the season, with opponents at 62 makes to their 46, and that’s before facing Okorie’s downhill game in a true road environment. Stanford has lived in the mid-20s for free-throw attempts at Maples and has three double-digit wins there already. Combine that whistle profile with a clear glass edge from Rohosy and Okpara, and you can see the script: Maldonado cools a touch, Seattle’s hot percentages regress, and Stanford’s size plus free throws stretch this into a fifteen-point stroll.
I still prefer grabbing the points, but I treat it as a lean, not a flag-plant. Seattle’s offense is not just noise; they share it with 15.5 assists, protect it with about 11 turnovers and carry two real matchup problems in Maldonado and Heimbrodt. Stanford’s defense, for all the pressure, is still giving up 46.6% shooting and 35.4% from three. That is not the profile that routinely buries a competent shooting dog by double digits, especially when the dog can generate early-clock looks before the size really settles. Seattle has also already played four-possession ball against decent mid-majors; this is their first true road trip, but not their first time needing answers late.
So let’s be frank about the holes: first game away from home, Stanford’s free-throw avalanche and rebounding edge, and the chance that Okorie just decides this. Even with those, most of my darts still land on Seattle finding enough shot-making to stay inside the number. Pace and efficiency point me slightly toward the over as well, but the cleanest edge sits on the spread. I’m riding the dog on principle and numbers, fully aware that Maples and Okorie could still hand us a rough beat.
Final score: Stanford 81, Seattle 74.
Best bet: Seattle +10.5 (-110) vs. Stanford
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