The number of Kiwis fleeing New Zealand has smashed another record as the country grapples with a cost of living crisis, rising unemployment and the prospect of yet another recession.
In the year ended August 2025, New Zealand had a net loss of 47,900 citizens, according to provisional data from Stats NZ.
A total of 73,900 citizens departed the country. That’s a new record, surpassing the previous high of 73,300 in the July 2025 year.
And most of the Kiwis who emigrate – about 60 per cent – are heading for Australia, which holds a population of about 600,000 New Zealand-born people.
One of them is Kate Shuttleworth, a communications professional based in Melbourne with no set plans to move back across the ditch.
“I’ll always love New Zealand, but Melbourne has become home,” the 43-year-old told news.com.au.
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“There are more opportunities here simply because it’s a bigger market.”
Ms Shuttleworth was lured to Australia by a job offer in 2017.
She said money was not her motivation for moving, but she had been fortunate to earn a good income in Australia, making about $30,000 AUD more per year than she would in New Zealand.
“The cost of living is a bit lower here and that’s meant I’ve been able to save and eventually buy a place,” she said.
“For me, it’s always been about the quality of the work, the issues I get to work on, and the people I get to work with.
“I’ve built a life here: I have a partner who is Australian, I have strong friendships and work here that I really value.
“I could see myself returning one day, most Kiwis probably feel that pull, but at the moment I’m really settled here.”
Ms Shuttleworth misses her family, friends, and “that amazing sense of friendliness and community you feel in New Zealand”.
“Each time I go home to visit, I feel the gap widening a bit which I admit comes with some sadness.”
That sadness was deepened with the realisation that New Zealand’s economic situation was getting worse.
“I find it really hard to see New Zealand going backwards,” she said.
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‘Signs of stabilisation’
Unemployment ticked up to 5.3 per cent in the September 2025 quarter, while annual inflation rose to 3 per cent — its highest level in a year.
And if yet-to-be released figures for Q3 show negative GDP growth, that will place the country in its second recession in as many years, not including the pandemic.
Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub described the mid-2024 recession as “engineered,” because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had hiked interest rates after the stimulatory environment during Covid.
“It was entirely what we wanted to happen. During the pandemic we had all that inflation, we had free money everywhere,” Mr Eaqub said.
“Monetary policy went from very supportive to very contractionary, so the economy slowed.”
Since then, net migration has also slowed very sharply, presenting another headwind.
“Most people come to New Zealand on a work visa, and you can’t get a work visa if there’s no work.
“When the borders opened (after the pandemic) immigration was super strong – now it’s very low, at the level where it’s not adding anything to demand.
“We don’t have a lot of momentum in the economy.”
The RBNZ has been cutting interest rates for the past year but it will take “anywhere between 12 to 18 months for those cuts to filter through to the real economy,” Mr Eaqub said.
“The Reserve Banks will probably cut rates further, so that’s a positive. And I think the government is likely to announce more spending before the next election.”
Country’s new ‘Misery Index’
So dire is the state of the economy that one political commentator has revived the Misery Index – the sum of inflation and unemployment.
It’s a tool not used since the stagflation of the 1970s.
Matthew Hooton has added his own spin on the index, subtracting GDP from the mix and pinpointing the current “misery” level at 9 per cent.
“There’s a deep malaise in New Zealand, like there was in much of the world in 1970s, where it’s obvious the answers that have done a good job over recent decades are failing to answer the problems that are emerging,” Mr Hooton said.
“Yet no one has come up with what the new answers might be… The misery indices I have devised do confirm things are the worst they have been this century.”
History suggested the Luxon government would need to get the index down below 6 – or at least clearly heading towards it to be re-elected, Mr Hooton added.
“There’s not much sign of that just yet.”
