Back in July 2024, Muhammad’s five-year, 11-fight unbeaten run culminated with his UFC 304 title victory over Leon Edwards. It was an incredible win for “The Bully,” a full-circle moment that saw him avenge his eye poke “No Contest” and defy expectations by capturing UFC gold as an underdog. Muhammad was never pegged as a future champion. We’re talking about a gritty fighter who lost his UFC debut and had to scratch and claw for every inch of his Octagon success.
A little more than one year later, that high point looks like it will end up the peak of Muhammad’s career. His first title defense saw Muhammad fail to fully utilize his wrestling (Canelo hands!), and he subsequently ended up on the wrong side of a bloody beatdown at the hands and knees of Jack Della Maddalena. Less than six months later, “JDM” has lost his title in one-sided fashion to Islam Makhachev (more on that here), a teammate Muhammad has admitted beats him up in the gym and is somebody he would never fight.
Indeed, there’s no clear path forward for the former champion … and that’s a major issue. Historically, we’ve seen this kind of situation play out when the top contender already has a loss (or two) to the current kingpin — the classic Whittaker vs. Adesanya or Fitch vs. St. Pierre problem. That lack of progress and momentum can ruin talented fighters, as it’s much harder to maintain focused on a goal with no tangible path forward.
I see two options for Muhammad: he can try to out-last Makhachev’s title reign or switch divisions. It’s always possible that whomever faces Makhachev next smokes him, but the Dagestani great is on a record-setting win streak for a reason. Furthermore, trying to out-last a man who is three years younger doesn’t sound like a great strategy generally. Alternatively, Muhammad has teased a move to Middleweight in the past, and Garry is about as big as Welterweights come. If he can win impressively, perhaps he jumps to 185 pounds with a smidge of momentum.
Even confessing that I don’t feel like Muhammad has much of a chance against Top 10-ranked Middleweights — let alone a massive bruiser like Dricus du Plessis — it’s still the option I would pick for him. Jumping up immediately keeps hope alive and clears the confusion on what must be done to regain UFC gold.
It may be easier to walk a tremendously difficult path than tread water indefinitely. Either way, Muhammad suddenly finds himself in a very difficult position unlikely to improve from UFC Qatar alone.
