The Wallabies are staring down the barrel of a horrid end to their season, which has only gotten progressively worse since the Rugby Championship.
Fewer points scored, more points conceded, higher penalty counts, and lower success rates in the opposition’s 22m zones. This all comes from implementing the exact same game plan that saw the Wallabies triumph over the British and Irish Lions in Sydney and end a 62-year-long drought at Ellis Park in South Africa.
What has changed is the Wallabies’ ability to select unchanged, cohesive, and experienced players, who are also able to get over the gainline.
The Wallabies do not have the depth to make two or three changes per game, and certainly don’t have the depth to make as many as seven changes to a 23-man matchday squad.
That is what has happened during this northern tour and throughout 2025. Injuries, retirement, and player unavailability are all a part of Test match rugby.
Some sides, like South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, can deal with four or five changes to their ideal team; the Wallabies cannot.
Losing Tom Wright, Noah Lolesio, and Tate McDermott to long-term injuries took away the most steadfast fullback coach Joe Schmidt has used during his tenure; likewise, McDermott was always adding impact off the bench.
Lolesio detractors are many and a loud bunch, but there is now no questioning what his steadying hand, assured kicks, and great communication did for this Wallabies side; his loss is perhaps the one felt the most without anyone talking about it.
Next, if we take the absence of Will Skelton and Langi Gleeson through injury and selection issues, then you’ve taken away two of the Wallabies’ most powerful gainline runners. In Skelton’s case, you’ve lost a world-class lock that very few in the world could replace.
Skelton may not be a line-breaking running threat, but his sheer size and power force defences to change their shape. He often attracts two or more tacklers, and that alone is enough to break the rhythm and structure of an opposition’s defence.
Team Form
Last 5 Games
-42
Points Difference
-62
4/5
Race To 10 Points
2/5
Gleeson has played enough minutes in the Wallabies system to be a loss to the continuity the side was building, even if Tom Hooper has done a stellar job of filling his shoes.
Finally, if you take out Nic White and James Slipper, who have now retired, all of a sudden, you have lost the bulk of a starting XV.
All these players played big minutes under Schmidt, which helped them understand his system and, in turn, make it their own alongside their teammates.
Their absence means Schmidt has had to pull players from outside the regular 23-man matchday squad, and they’ve been forced to add impact off the bench or in the starting XV immediately.
The Wallabies don’t have the club combinations to lift from Super Rugby Pacific into the Test arena on any meaningful scale to ensure cohesion amongst the chopping and changing, so the Wallabies have been fighting themselves as well as the opposition on gameday.
However, as complicated as this all sounds, rugby occasionally is very simple, and if the Wallabies win the gainline in Paris, they can triumph over a French side who are missing some of their key stars and who are still working to find their form.
This notion is only bolstered by the fact that the Wallabies’ ruck speed in all their losses in Europe so far has been faster than their opposition’s.
At Twickenham, the Wallabies had 53.9% of their rucks between 0-3 seconds, 35.3% between 4-6 seconds, and only 10.8% were over six seconds.
Conversely, England had 42.9, 30.4, and 26.8%. England had a much slower overall ruck speed, and yet they won convincingly in the end, gaining almost 200m more than the Wallabies in the process.
This advantage at the ruck speed, however, was mirrored in the Italy and Ireland games, with the biggest difference in the 0-3 second ruck category, which is the most desirable number for attacking sides, coming against Italy.
In that match, the Wallabies had a whopping 78.9% of their rucks at 0-3 seconds, whereas Italy had 59.3%. The Wallabies did a number on Ireland as well, with 65% of 0-3 second rucks, with the Irish finishing with 49%.
So, ruck speed and therefore distribution are not the issue here; the issue is, as mentioned before, what happens when the Wallabies players carry the ball.
No matter who it is, the Wallabies are not making enough of their carries over the gainline, and simply, if you don’t make it over the gainline, the defence has succeeded.
Without gainline success from the attack, a defensive line can fold to the required side, it realigns quicker, and can move forward with momentum, usually causing a snowball effect, unless there is a circuit-breaker, ergo, a gainline carry later in the phase count.
Conversely, with gainline success, defences can’t fold because the ruck is a physical blockage preventing them from realigning quickly and efficiently.
It forces them to retreat, so they are slower off the mark in the next phase, and that in turn can cause penalties for off-sides, a snowball effect of passive tackles due to counter momentum, and it may force a jackler to attempt a pilfer when in an unideal position, which in turn can get penalised.
The Wallabies, despite losing more turnovers in Italy than usual, have, in general, been good enough at the attacking ruck to accommodate one or two pilfers.
However, without gainline ball and a faltering lineout, these steals hurt a lot more. This comes down to selection, what time you choose to use your reserves, and how you carry.
The Wallabies’ attack has been faltering, mainly because they have stopped getting gainline carries, but what is causing this is telegraphed carriers and running lines.
The Wallabies have played their pattern so consistently across 2025 that now the analysis on their attack is so easy to defend: ‘just tackle the guy who is holding the ball.’
‘Put two tacklers on the carrier because there is a 98% chance that he won’t tip ball or offload.’
If you look back to the historic win at Ellis Park, Harry Wilson’s try from 30m out came from a sleight of hand moment by Angus Bell, who tipped it flat into Wilson’s arms.
Max Jorgensen had one of the most memorable Wallabies tries of this century, all because Ikitau split two defenders and did a no-look out-the-back offload to Jorgo on the wing at Twickenham in 2024.
The Wallabies must remember that the structure is there as a blueprint; what puts muscle and teeth on their attack is the individual pieces of flair each of these players possesses.
Sometimes big dudes in rugby are enough, but against a giant French pack and determined backline, the Wallabies must use nous as well, and that will require tip passes, offloads, and little kicks in behind their blue wall.
This means the supporting players must be ready to receive the ball in a position that will make them a genuine option and threat.
The timing of runs and the lines of those runs by the Wallabies have been questionable of late, even when they have tried to expand their game plan.
Nevertheless, the Wallabies must be alert and ready to accept the tip on or offload, and they must be prepared to throw it.
Now, Schmidt’s selections for this Test have seen him omit the Wallabies’ biggest lock in Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, a curious choice as he attracts more than two defenders with most carries. This leaves the Wallabies locking picks looking shorter and lighter than is ideal on a cold night in Paris.
However, with Taniela Tupou, Bell, Hooper, and Dylan Peitsch all starting, it is hoped they will bring the impetus needed to defeat Les Bleus.
If the Wallabies win the gainline with nous and the brawn they have selected, then they are a genuine chance to cause an upset at the Stade de France.
