The last time the Patriots played in Cincinnati, they won as touchdown underdogs.
On Sunday, they’ll try to keep the Bengals from doing the same.
The Pats are slated as 7-point favorites Sunday as they chase their 10th win of the season and try to take another step toward the top seed in the AFC. The mystery surrounding Cincinnati’s quarterback situation threw a late wrench into a matchup between one of the NFL’s hottest teams and one of its worst. The Bengals are 3-7, having lost seven of their last eight and allowed a league-worst 33.4 points per game.
But Joe Burrow isn’t coming to save them. Burrow will not play Sunday, leaving Joe Flacco to make his sixth start for Cincinnati this season. Flacco is just 1-4, but his individual numbers place him among the league’s best quarterbacks during that stretch.
As Cincinnati has tumbled down the standings, Drake Maye’s MVP campaign has skyrocketed, and a porous Bengals defense should only help his case. That is, if the Patriots don’t allow for a letdown.
Here’s what to watch for in Cincinnati:
When the Patriots run
Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to play after missing three games with a toe injury, and he couldn’t have timed his return any better. The Bengals’ run defense is by far the softest in the AFC.
Cincinnati has allowed more than 100 rushing yards in every game since its season opener, including two of the last three where they gave up 250-plus. The Bengals rank second-worst against the run by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA, partly thanks to a high missed tackle rate. Even if Stevenson has to shake off a little rust first, rookie TreVeyon Henderson has hit his stride, and statistically is now running at a full sprint.
Henderson scored three touchdowns and broke four tackles last week versus the Jets, and remains a threat to break a long run every time he touches the ball. Henderson’s best rushes continue to come off-tackle, where the Bengals are allowing six yards per carry, per Sports Info. Solutions. Expect the Pats to test Cincinnati by putting Henderson and other elusive players in space throughout the game.
When the Patriots pass
The Pats’ premier deep threat is back after missing two games with a hamstring injury. Boutte should return to his starting spot at X receiver, which will mean fewer snaps for rookie Kyle Williams and perhaps DeMario Douglas. Stefon Diggs figures to kick inside to the slot, where he should do damage against the NFL’s worst short pass defense by DVOA. Douglas is another option, especially on screens.
And when Maye isn’t targeting his receivers, the tight ends and safeties will have plenty of favorable matchups. Cincinnati ranks among the worst teams in the league at defending those positions, which opens the door to potential big games for Henderson and Hunter Henry. Of note: The Pats are also welcoming back No. 2 tight end Austin Hooper, who recently recovered from a concussion.
Without Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson (hip injury), the Bengals’ pass defense should be at a loss versus Maye and Co. No other Cincinnati pass rusher has more than three sacks, and cornerback DJ Turner II is the defense’s only decent player in coverage, though safety Jordan Battle does have three interceptions.
When the Bengals run
One of the more underrated running backs in the league calls Cincinnati home. But the question is: can the Bengals keep the score close enough to continue handing the ball off to Chase Brown?
Brown is the face of one of the NFL’s best run offenses by advanced metrics, despite averaging just 4.1 yards per carry. He’s totaled 519 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including a 99-yard performance last weekend at Pittsburgh. Brown should take the lion’s share of carries again, with veteran backup Samaje Perine ruled out.
Cincinnati’s greatest rushing strength is in short-yardage, where they are second only to the Chiefs this season by success rate. The Bengals are also rarely stuffed for no gain, meaning the Patriots must rally and tackle well to stop Brown. Last week, they missed just three tackles against the run-heavy Jets.
The Pats will no doubt miss injured defensive tackle Milton Williams, who was placed on injured reserve this week with an ankle injury. In his place, expect Khyiris Tonga to get promoted to the starting lineup and backup defensive tackles Cory Durden and Joshua Farmer to play a larger role, plus ex-Bengals rookie Eric Gregory, who made his Patriots debut earlier this month.
When the Bengals pass
Where is Tee Higgins?
That question will be top of mind for every Patriots defensive back with fellow star receiver Ja’Marr Chase out due to a one-game suspension. The 6-foot-4 Higgins is a deep threat who’s also capable of boxing out corners in tight spaces, including the red zone. Expect the Bengals to move him around the formation, including bunch sets, so Higgins can have a chance to separate quickly in different route concepts.
The Patriots will likely shadow Higgins with Christian Gonzalez at least on a part-time basis, considering no other Bengals pass-catcher who will be active Sunday has more than 256 yards. If the Pats contain Higgins, Cincinnati’s only other outs are running the ball and attacking the short area of the field via slot receiver Andrei Iosivas, athletic tight end Noah Fant and Chase Brown. That will, of course, also depend on how much pressure the Pats can generate without Williams, especially up the middle where most defenses try to disrupt pocket-bound passers like Flacco.
Speaking of Flacco, he owns one of the highest checkdown rates in the league among starting quarterbacks. If the Pats can tackle well when he dumps the ball off, they should be able to pull away.
Game pick
Patriots 40, Bengals 23
