Australia:
Wed: Consumer Price Index (Oct), Construction work done (Q3)
Thu: Capex (Q3)
Fri: Private sector credit (Oct)
International:
Tue: US — Retail sales (Sep), ADP employment (weekly), Producer prices (Sep), Consumer confidence (Nov)
Wed: NZ — RBNZ rates decision
UK — Government budget
US — Durable goods orders (Sep)
Thu: US — Thanksgiving Day holiday, markets closed.
Woo hoo, it’s a massive week for Australia’s macro policy wonks and anyone who wants to bang on about inflation (this blog included).
On Wednesday, the RBA rolls out its brand new, smicko monthly Consumer Price Index, which replaces the dated interim measure that no one really trusted, but quoted it anyway.
Having said that, quarterly CPI will remain the dominant figure in determining RBA decisions, but hey, we can now have monthly anxiety fests like all the other big economies.
Westpac’s forecast of the maiden reading doesn’t make for happy reading for those hoping for a rate cut.
“Westpac is forecasting a 0.1% rise in October, and with –0.3% dropping out from October 2024, the annual pace is forecast to lift from 3.5%yr to 3.9%yr,” its economics team wrote in a preview.
“October is traditionally a softer month, the seasonally adjusted estimate is 0.5%, and the stronger outcome compared October 2024 is due to a smaller fall in electricity (–6.0%), a stronger gain in dwellings (0.4%), a smaller decline in rents (–0.2%) and a positive bump up in holiday travel & accommodation (2.6%).”
The ABS will also release the first GDP partials ahead of the full third quarter National Accounts on Wednesday, December 3.
Construction work done (Wednesday) is expected to have been wound back in the third quarter after the previous quarter’s mining-related spike and a recent downgrade in public sector infrastructure spending.
However, Q3 capex (Thursday) is expected to remain solid, driven by the IT and energy sectors.
Private sector credit (Friday) in October is expected to grow at about 0.6% as it has for most of the year, largely supported by home loans.
The US data fog, post-US government shutdown, is starting to lift with retail sales and producer prices set to be released, although the October CPI won’t be published.
US consumer confidence numbers (a private sector series) on Tuesday will be watched as closely as any figures, given the data void and the suspicion that the domestic economy may start to wobble.
Across the ditch, the RBNZ is expected to make another 25bp rate cut, taking the official rate down to 2.25%.
