The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently enduring their worst stretch of hockey since the 2016 NHL season. The team is struggling to keep the puck out of their own net, and on many nights, they are struggling to even show up emotionally. All the worst qualities that surfaced during the previous regime have reared their ugly heads once again.
With US Thanksgiving just five days away, the Leafs are reaching a critical pivot point. Historically, 77% of teams in a playoff spot by US Thanksgiving go on to make the postseason, leaving approximately two spots available for the chasers. While the Leafs sit only four points out of the playoffs, the reality is grim: they sit 15th in the Eastern Conference, ahead of only the Buffalo Sabres.
Following a disheartening 5-2 loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday night, the Leafs also appear to have lost Jake McCabe to injury. Unfortunately, in the NHL, sometimes a team chooses to tank, while other times that decision is made for them by their overall situation. Given the circumstances surrounding their first-round pick this year, the Leafs may have no choice but to sell.
Here are three moves that I feel are essential to salvage something from this spiraling season.
1. Trade Brandon Carlo While Value Remains
The Leafs acquired Brandon Carlo at last season’s Trade Deadline as the latest attempt to find a reliable partner for Morgan Rielly. Unfortunately for Toronto, the fit has been unsuccessful. Before his injury this year, Carlo found himself struggling through almost every shift.
As a pairing, Rielly and Carlo were atrocious, and Carlo has struggled individually all year, seeing his hits per game drop to a career low. Despite this, reports indicate that if the Leafs chose to move Carlo, they would likely find value similar to what they paid last season.
The Move: Capitalize on his reputation. Finding a way to get back into the first round of this year’s draft could go a very long way to ensuring a quick retool can be completed effectively.
2. Create Room For Internal Options and Recoup Assets
Coming into this year, the Leafs appeared to have a surplus of bottom-six forwards. This was initially viewed as a strength; however, Head Coach Craig Berube has struggled to enforce accountability with his off-season acquisitions.
To date, Berube has refused to scratch Dakota Joshua or Max Domi, both of whom have struggled immensely this season. Instead, Berube recently dressed Sammy Blais in place of Jacob Quillan, despite Quillan playing extremely well in his first two NHL games.
The Move: Over the next month, the Maple Leafs need to create much-needed roster room. Management must ensure the team has the ability to play Easton Cowan, Nick Robertson, and other deserving prospects every night. The Leafs also need to find a chance to evaluate players like William Villeneuve at the NHL level. Doing this must come with the mandate of securing draft picks, as the team’s prospect pool is currently among the worst in the league.
3. Define the Team Identity Going Forward
In my opinion, this is the most critical item on the list. After years of being a fast team that could outscore its defensive deficiencies, the Leafs have pivoted to become the largest and slowest team in the NHL.
Combined with that lack of speed and skill, the team has opted to adopt a “dump and chase” style. However, their overall lack of foot speed has prevented that strategy from being effective, leading to reduced offensive zone time and extended sequences trapped in their own defensive end.
The Move: The team needs to evaluate if they are good enough to continue playing this heavy style or if they need a new approach to player deployment. With their next two first-round picks in the hands of other teams, a full rebuild is out of the question. Instead, a quick retool with heavy investments in free agency this summer might be the only choice.
The Bottom Line
Even among those who expected the Leafs to regress this year, I don’t think anyone expected things to be this bad. This isn’t just a case of a team underachieving; it is a case of a coach being out-coached every night and a General Manager being out-managed.
