Griffin Wong previews tonight’s game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Washington Wizards with his favorite player prop bets.
As people all around the United States get ready to munch on turkey two days from now, it’s only fitting that one of the NBA’s three bird teams — and, of those three bird teams, the one most genetically similar to a turkey — will suit up as part of tonight’s appetizer slate of NBA Cup action.
The hot Atlanta Hawks will travel to face the Washington Wizards tonight at 7 p.m. ET in each team’s third game of Emirates NBA Cup East Group A action, and while neither can clinch advancement tonight, both can be eliminated. The Wizards need a win to have a chance of staying alive, while the Hawks can be eliminated with a loss if the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons both win their next game or the New York Knicks and Miami Heat both win.
Atlanta is a 10.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-535 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 236.5. Washington is +400 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll lay out my three favorite prop bets for tonight’s contest.
Jalen Johnson to Record a Triple-Double (+316)
Trae Young’s knee injury has opened the door for Johnson to emerge as a bona fide superstar and a shoo-in All-Star in the East. Since Young’s injury, Johnson has averaged 23.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game, and he’s one of just four players averaging at least 20 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists this season. He’s stepped it up even further since returning from a one-game absence due to an ankle injury on November 10, putting up a 24.1-10.9-9.1 line. While he’s only recorded one triple-double in that span, he’s been within either two rebounds or three assists in each game, so it wouldn’t take him that much to turn it into a triple-double.
Facing the Wizards’ league-worst defense might be all it takes. This season, Washington has allowed the most points, most rebounds, and second-most assists per game, and one of its better players, rookie Tre Johnson — who had actually made a positive impact on the defense despite being just 19 — is set to miss the next few weeks with a flexor strain. The Wizards have already allowed three triple-doubles this season, including an 18-point, 12-rebound, 11-assist effort by the Chicago Bulls’ Josh Giddey on Saturday night. One risk here is that Johnson doesn’t get his usual playing time because of a lopsided score line, but each team’s most recent game was decided by one possession.
Alexandre Sarr 10+ Rebounds (+165)
The lone bright spot in Washington’s miserable season is Sarr’s development. After a rough rookie season, he’s emerged as arguably the best player in the 2024 draft class, far out-producing the Hawks’ first overall pick, compatriot Zaccharie Risacher. Of course, the two are very different types of players in very different roles, but Wizards fans have to feel grateful that Sarr reportedly rejected the idea of going to Atlanta in the build-up to draft night. He’s snagged 10 or more boards thrice in his last four games, including an 11-rebound effort against Chicago on Saturday in just 28 minutes of play.
The Hawks have had an elite defense since Young went down, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game across their last 14 games. However, they’ve still been susceptible on the boards, conceding the 13th-most rebounds per game. In part, it’s a matter of luck — they’ve had the sixth-fewest rebound chances per game across that span — but they’ve still capitalized on their rebound chances at a below-average rate. Atlanta also holds opponents to the fifth-lowest percentage inside the restricted area, allowing plenty of offensive rebound opportunities, and Sarr’s offensive rebounding percentage has jumped by 1.4 percentage points relative to last season.
Kristaps Porziņġis 2+ Blocks (+100)
As has been the case ever since he suffered a torn ACL 48 games into his third season, the biggest question surrounding Porziņġis has been health. This season, the gargantuan Latvian has played in just 11 of the Hawks’ 18 games while managing knee soreness and an illness, including only four of Atlanta’s last nine. Either way, he’s been dominant inside when he’s taken the court, blocking two or more shots in each of his last five games and limiting opponents to just 49.3% on shots within six feet of the basket, the second-best mark of any player to appear in at least 10 games and defend at least six such shots per game.
Unsurprisingly, Washington has also been bad at getting shots over defenders’ outstretched arms. This season, the Wizards rank third-to-last in opponent blocks per game, getting swatted 5.9 times per game. In part, it’s a matter of shot profile: Washington has attempted an average number of shots within eight feet, the zone in which shots are more likely to get blocked, and of the six Wizards who attempt three or more shots per game in that zone, four are six-foot-eight or shorter. Sarr has been the sixth-most blocked player in basketball this season.
