Analysis: No surprises in the budget – but will it be enough to stave off Labour rebellion?
With the budget just days away, one cabinet minister – who had just been watching Radiohead at London’s O2 arena – picked a somewhat prescient song by the Oxfordshire rockers to summarise political events of the week.
“No surprises.”
And so that came to pass in more ways than one.
After weeks, perhaps months, of official and unofficial pre-briefing it was perhaps appropriate that the fiscal watchdog prematurely published its outlook – revealing the main policy measures being taken by the government – forty minutes before the chancellor even took to her feet.
As PMQs ticked along, Rachel Reeves was seen tapping on her phone, scribbling down notes and looking towards the Treasury advisory team sat on the benches above.
“She might cry again,” joked one parliamentary worker, as physical copies of the fiscal statement were unloaded into the press room outside the chamber.
A messy start to a messy budget delivered by, to be frank, a messy government.
(Watch below as Reeves calls OBR leak ‘deeply disappointing’)
As for what was unveiled, even without the accidental early publication, there was still very little that hadn’t already been comprehensively briefed.
Labour backbenchers will be thrilled with the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap.
Restless MPs were perhaps the most important audience for this budget, given the precarious political position of both the PM and chancellor.
This expensive move will give them something to tout on the doorstep.
Whether it will sugar the pill of other welfare cuts to come remains to be seen.
The introduction of a new tax on high-value properties and changes to asset taxes, combined with freezes to rail fares and other cost-of-living measures, also gives the party the outlines of a story to tell about whose side this government is on – something critics say has been lacking over the last year.
So, in short, this should all be enough to keep Rachel Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer in place for now.
But is it an inflexion point where this government’s declining fortunes start to improve?
That’s far less clear.
There was no radical change in approach here.
And the underlying picture painted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is still bleak – not least on disposable income, a measure being eaten away by the sizeable personal tax rises still lurking in this budget.
(Watch the moment Rachel Reeves appears to roll her eyes at Kemi Badenoch as the Tory leader responds to her budget)
So the fundamental drivers of the government’s woes have not shifted much as a result of today, and that means the anxieties of MPs will remain.
This budget should keep the show on the road and may mean critics turning down the volume a little.
The drumbeat of rebellion will likely return, though, if not after the May elections, then sooner.
To go back to our cabinet minister’s choice of Radiohead song.
Could there be another prescient clue lurking in its lyrics?
“You look so tired, unhappy. Bring down the government. They don’t, they don’t speak for us.”
