Arsenal kept yet
another clean sheet at the weekend in their 1-0 win over Fulham.
That puts them on course to break one of the Premier
League‘s most impressive defensive records. And doing that
would surely be enough to earn them their first title in 21
years.
In an era when human performance and sports science continue to
advance at a remarkable pace, there are very few football records
that remain truly untouchable. Just look at what Erling Haaland is
doing to so many goalscoring records.
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But Chelsea’s
2004-05 Premier League campaign remains one of the great
exceptions. José Mourinho’s side conceded just 15 goals on their
way to the Premier League title, a record that has stood
unchallenged for two decades, and many believe it’s one that will
never be broken.
No team has come close since. Chelsea themselves conceded 22
times the following season and, along with Manchester United in
2007-08 and Liverpool in 2018-19, came closest to the magical 15
number. But even then, those three teams were still seven goals
shy.
To put Chelsea’s phenomenal record into perspective, both Wolves
and West Ham have already let in 16 goals this season, one more
than Mourinho’s side did in 38 games, after just eight and seven
matches, respectively.
But Arsenal,
who logged yet another clean sheet at the weekend away to
Fulham, are on track to beat Chelsea’s famous record. Their
latest shutout means they’ve conceded only three times in eight
league games this season – a rate of 0.38 goals per game. If they
maintain that pace, they will be on course to concede 14.4 goals
across the full 38-match season. If they can keep that down to 14,
it would, of course, break the record.
Mikel Arteta has built an extraordinary defensive unit, and the
early numbers underline just how dominant they’ve been. On a
per-game basis, Arsenal lead all teams in Europe’s top five leagues
for goals conceded and expected goals conceded. They rank second in
Europe for both total shots and shots on target faced, while the
quality of chances they allow – measured by xG per shot – is also
the second lowest of any team.
Looking at where Arsenal are conceding their shots from not only
shows us how few chances they are giving up from a sheer volume
standpoint, but also that they’ve been exceptional at defending
their own six-yard box. Much of that stems from the commanding
presence of centre-backs
Gabriel Magalhães and William
Saliba, who have been formidable defensive presences at the
heart of Arsenal’s back four, while goalkeeper David
Raya has more than played his part.
Arteta has been able to field a very familiar defensive unit in
front of Raya, which has no doubt helped contribute to their
obdurate displays. Gabriel and Saliba have started six of Arsenal’s
eight league games together, providing a robust platform. When
Saliba has been unavailable, 21-year-old
Cristhian Mosquera has slotted in impressively. At full-back,
Riccardo Calafiori has started every game and Jurriën
Timber seven of eight. Both bring tremendous physicality and
excel in one-on-one situations.
With just three goals conceded through eight games, though, how
does Arsenal’s start stack up historically?
Seven teams in Premier League history have conceded two or fewer
goals in their opening eight games. Chelsea’s 2004-05 side, the
gold standard, kept seven clean sheets in that span, and conceded
just once.
But as history (in the above table) shows, maintaining this
level of defensive solidity over an entire season is far from
straightforward, nor does a good start guarantee success come the
end of the campaign. Of those seven teams, only three – Chelsea
(2004-05 and 2005-06) and Manchester United (2007-08) – went on to
win the title. Leicester City in 2000-01 ended up 13th.
Arsenal know that lesson all too well. In 1998-99, they conceded
just 17 goals all season, but went on to finish second. That total
is still the fewest goals conceded by a team that didn’t win the
Premier League title, with their defensive excellence undermined by
a lack of goals.
This time, things look different. Arsenal scored just 59 goals
in 1998-99, the fourth-most that season, and 21 fewer than eventual
champions Manchester United. This season, they’ve scored 15 in
eight games, which puts them on course for a solid, if not
spectacular, 71. But with scoring rates down across the league this
season, that shouldn’t be too concerning, particularly as their
underlying attacking metrics look fine; their overall xG of 14.1 is
the fourth-highest in the league, with Crystal Palace (17.4 xG)
very much within touching distance.
Let’s not forget that’s come without their attack fully
clicking, either. Martin
Ødegaard, Noni
Madueke and Kai
Havertz have already missed significant spells, and they all
remain out. Viktor
Gyökeres hasn’t yet found top gear, while Bukayo
Saka has also had time on the sidelines.
If and when that attacking rhythm arrives, and if the defence
continues at this remarkable level, Arsenal will be exceptionally
hard to stop.
Breaking Chelsea’s 15-goal record may still be a tall order, but
right now, Arteta’s side are giving it a serious go. In doing so,
they may just be building a title-winning platform.
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