Griffin Wong analyzes Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf’s fantasy value before Sunday’s game vs. the Packers.
Last Thursday, the Pittsburgh Steelers suffered one of the more surprising defeats of the season, failing to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals to see their lead atop the division slip to 1.5 games. They should still be in good position — Cincinnati will be without starting quarterback Joe Burrow for another two months, and the talented Baltimore Ravens are just 1-5 after a disastrous start to the season — but it was a game that a potential Super Bowl contender simply cannot lose. Offseason acquisition D.K. Metcalf, who had helped revitalize the stagnant Steelers offense with a slew of solid performances, had just three catches for 50 yards.
What made that effort particularly disappointing was the fact that it came against a Bengals secondary that has posted the seventh-lowest coverage grades at Pro Football Focus and was without cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers only targeted Metcalf five times, less frequently than he did tight ends Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth. It wasn’t quite a season low in targets for Metcalf — previously, he’d had games with three and four targets — but in each case, he scored a touchdown, so his fantasy output was respectable. Last Thursday, only one of Metcalf’s targets came in the red zone, and both of the incomplete targets were intercepted, including one in which DJ Turner II ripped it out of Metcalf’s arms as both tumbled out of bounds. The other was a Rodgers overthrow into double coverage, which wasn’t remotely Metcalf’s fault.
In part, Rodgers likely chose to target his tight ends because Cincinnati’s best coverage defenders — Turner, Dax Hill, and Josh Newton — are all cornerbacks, while safeties Geno Stone and Jordan Battle have generally been worse in coverage. That’s been a trend all season: the Bengals have allowed more yards (536) and more touchdowns (9) to tight ends than any other team in the league. The issue for Metcalf is that Pittsburgh’s Week 8 opponent, the Green Bay Packers, have a similar defensive profile, having allowed the 13th-most yards and third-most touchdowns to tight ends. Smith and Freiermuth could once again be Rodgers’ to-to targets in the red zone.
In general, Metcalf could hardly ask for a more difficult matchup. This season, the Packers have posted the league’s highest coverage grades, and their top outside corner, Keisean Nixon, has posted the 17th-highest coverage grade among 110 qualified cornerbacks this season and has conceded just an 89.4 passer rating in coverage. To be fair, Green Bay has two of the best safeties in the league in Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams, so they might be able to somewhat bottle up Freiermuth and Smith, but taking them on still might be more appealing to Rodgers than targeting Metcalf against Nixon. He’s not a great bet to find the end zone against a team that has allowed the fifth-fewest touchdowns in the league this season.
