Andy Schooler picks out the outright alternatives to Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at this week’s Rolex Paris Masters.
Rolex Paris Masters
- Paris, France (indoor hard)
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have played together in six tour-level tournaments this season and at five of those, they have contested the final.
The pair line-up in Paris this week and, let’s be honest, it would be no surprise to see them play off for the title next Sunday afternoon.
If you can get a price on the duo making it that far again, I wouldn’t put anyone off, but do I really want to be putting up either man to win at 6/4 or shorter? The answer is no.
In terms of that Big Two final bet, I think Alcaraz is the weaker link.
He has just one indoor title – indeed one indoor final – on his CV. That came in Rotterdam earlier this season.
Having withdrawn from Shanghai after rolling his ankle during a successful week in Tokyo, Alcaraz did return to action at the 6 Kings Slam event in Saudi Arabia recently where he was well beaten by Sinner in the final.
While his talent cannot be questioned, the fact is Alcaraz has never done anything of note at this time of the season. His best effort in Paris is a quarter-final, while he’s lacked impact at the ATP Finals which follow in Turin.
At this point in our preview, it’s worth addressing that tournament.
The likes of Alcaraz and Sinner have long been qualified for Turin but does that looming event mean they will be holding something back this week?
It’s certainly been the case over the years at the Paris Masters that the top players have not to performed at their best level.
Remember this is a tournament Roger Federer won only once and Rafael Nadal never did, while Holger Rune, Karen Khachanov and Jack Sock are all on the champions’ roll from the past decade.
While Alcaraz does arguably need matches following his Shanghai withdrawal, you can certainly make the case that Sinner could do with a bit of a rest.
He’s won in Beijing, the 6 Kings Slam and, on Sunday, in Vienna over the past month. That’s quite a lot of tennis in the legs at this time of the season.
Essentially, I don’t want to back him at 5/4 either.
Given the history of the event, it looks preferable to take a chance on an outsider or two – Sock and Khachanov were both winners at massive prices.
When looking down the market, we want to seek out players who have the motivation this week.
Home players certainly will do.
Ugo Humbert made the final last year and I’ve highlighted his impressive indoor record on these pages in recent weeks – he landed us some profit when making the final in Stockholm.
However, the problem there is Humbert withdrew injured in the Basel semi-finals on Saturday citing a back issue.
Perhaps that was a precautionary measure with Paris looming, although at a 500-level tournament it seems unlikely.
Others fully motivated this week are those still chasing places in the ATP Finals – think Lorenzo Musetti (defending the last qualification spot) and Felix Auger-Aliassime (looking to force his way in).
I did consider FAA in the top section but he’s another who quit last week, injured in the last eight in Basel (knee). That’s clearly a concern for potential backers.
Therefore, preference is to take a shot with ALEXANDER BUBLIK.
Admittedly, I initially felt he was a player who might be cooked at this time of year but I was impressed by what I saw of him in Vienna last week where he swatted two opponents aside before running into Sinner.
That massive serve was firing aces aplenty in the Austrian capital and I’d expect conditions to be pretty conducive to his game in Paris.
That ‘expectation’ is clouded rather by the fact that the tournament has moved venues this year – they are no longer in Bercy in the south west of Paris, instead heading to the La Defence business district in the north west.
However, the courts remain GreenSet ones and Paris has tended to play pretty quick in recent times with the tournament having tried, as best it can, to replicate the speedy conditions found in Turin.
Taylor Fritz, who has won just two of his last five matches and lost to some big servers in that run, is due to be Bublik’s first seeded opponent, while Alex De Minaur is also a potential foe before a potential semi-final meeting with Alcaraz.
Notably, Bublik has never faced Alcaraz and so will bring an element of surprise if they face off. I think the Kazakh would certainly prefer that as a potential semi-final than a clash with Sinner, who has handed him some drubbings this season.
In the opposite half, I’m prepared to go in with DANIIL MEDVEDEV again.
I felt a bit unlucky when we backed him each way in Shanghai only for the 40/1 shot to lose from a set up in the semis.
But the call that the Russian was on the up after a rough run earlier in the year was certainly correct.
He’s since broken his two-year title drought by winning in Astana and while there was an early loss in Vienna, I’m prepared to forgive that given the dash he made from Kazakhstan.
In fact, a few days off is probably exactly what the doctor ordered given Medvedev needs to both win this week and probably next if he’s to make the ATP Finals.
It’s a task which appears unlikely but I’d certainly expect Medvedev to give it a good go this week and he should be motivated.
He played well in Bercy in previous years, winning in 2020 and making the final in 2021.
The 29-year-old has long craved quick conditions and should get them once more.
Musetti and Alex Zverev are the higher-ranked seeds in the quarter – Medvedev leads Musetti 2-0 on hardcourts and has won 13 of his last 15 meetings with Zverev (all surfaces).
In short, I think he has strong claims to be the man who makes the semis from this section.
Were he to make it that far, you’d hope something might have happened to Sinner by then but even it hasn’t, having 35/1 onside at that point would be nice.
Posted at 1740 BST on 26/10/25
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