Melissa becomes monster Category 5 hurricane as Jamaica braces for destructive storm surge, flooding
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross provides his expert analysis on Hurricane Melissa. The Category 5 storm will bring extreme dangers of mudslides, flash flooding and storm surge to Jamaica in the next 24 hours.
KINGSTON, Jamaica – Hurricane Melissa strengthened into a powerful Category 5 hurricane early Monday morning as the catastrophic storm remains on track to slam the Caribbean island nation of Jamaica with a destructive storm surge, damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding.
As of the latest information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Melissa now has maximum sustained winds of 160 mph with some higher gusts, and some strengthening is possible ahead of its anticipated landfall in Jamaica by Tuesday morning.
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This comes after Hurricane Melissa underwent “extreme rapid intensification” over the weekend as millions of people rushed to prepare for the destructive storm’s impacts and seek shelter inside sturdy buildings as conditions began to deteriorate.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season now stands as the season with the second-most Category 5 hurricanes to form, with three. This season now sits behind the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which had four.
Prior to this season, the 2005 season was the only season on record to produce more than two Category 5 storms. And with a pressure of 914 mb, Hurricane Melissa now has the lowest pressure of the three previous Category 5 hurricanes this season.
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This graphic shows information on Hurricane Melissa.
(FOX Weather)
Melissa claimed at least three lives in the Dominican Republic last week as the storm stalled in the Caribbean, lashing Hispaniola with several inches of rain.
Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency confirmed a landslide in Fontamara, a commune of Port-au-Prince, left two people dead on Thursday, and a falling tree killed a man in his 70s in Marigot during flooding on Wednesday.
Now with Hurricane Melissa setting its sights on Jamaica, forecasters are presenting a potentially worst-case scenario of the storm as it slowly creeps toward the southern coast of the island at a near-snail’s pace, and the warnings have become more dire.
A coconut tree sways in the wind at the Kingston Waterfront on Ocean Boulevard in Kingston, Jamaica, as Jamaica starts to feel the effects of Hurricane Mellisa on October 26, 2025. Hurricane Melissa was cutting a deadly path in the Caribbean on the night of October 25, with rapid intensification expected over the weekend as it took a worryingly slow course toward Jamaica and the island of Hispaniola, forecasters said. (Photo by Ricardo Makyn / AFP) (Photo by RICARDO MAKYN/AFP via Getty Images)
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“Do not venture out of your safe shelter,” the NHC pleaded in its latest forecast advisory. “Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely (Monday) through Tuesday.”
But it’s not only the flooding rain that is concerning to forecasters.
“Destructive winds, especially in the mountains, will begin by (Monday) evening, leading to extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities.”
A life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are also expected at beaches along the southern coast through Tuesday.
JAMAICA HAS DESTRUCTIVE HISTORY OF HURRICANES – BUT MELISSA COULD BE AMONG THE WORST, FORECASTERS WARN
This graphic shows the forecast track for Hurricane Melissa.
(FOX Weather)
Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also expected to see potentially destructive impacts from Hurricane Melissa, with flash flooding and landslides expected there through midweek.
After tearing across Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa is then expected to make a second landfall in southeastern Cuba. Forecasters are also warning of flash flooding and landslides, as well as a life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds.
The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands are also being warned to brace for impact after Melissa emerges back over the Atlantic after ripping across Cuba.
Alerts in the Caribbean have also expanded with the latest advisory from the NHC. While the entire island of Jamaica remains under a Hurricane Warning, those alerts expanded to the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanmo and Holguin.
A Hurricane Watch has now also been issued for the southeastern and central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti and the Cuban province of Las Tunas.
BRYAN NORCROSS: RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANE MELISSA’S MULTIDAY ASSAULT ON JAMAICA BEGINS
Evacuations ordered for parts of Jamaica as millions brace for impact
FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray shares the latest updates from his severe storm coverage in Kingston, Jamaica, where residents in the area are completing the final preparations for Hurricane Melissa.
The Jamaican government activated the nation’s emergency operations center at the end of last week and prepositioned generators, medical supplies and fuel ahead of the storm to be prepared to respond once conditions improve.
In addition, Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced Sunday that he had issued mandatory evacuation orders for vulnerable areas of Kingston and surrounding areas.
That move comes after the Disaster Risk Management Order that was made on Oct. 24, which declared the entire island a “threatened area.”
Those evacuation orders, which include areas like Port Royal in Kingston, will remain in effect as long as the Declaration of Threatened Area Order is in place.
Airports in Jamaica, including Sangster International Airport and Norman Manley International Airport, have been ordered closed until Hurricane Melissa passes, and the Port Authority of Jamaica said all seaports have also been shut down.
Kingston Harbor opens to the south, and the airport is on a peninsula in the harbor. “Storm surge is forecast up to 13 feet above normal high tide in the bays and harbors east of the landfall point,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “If Melissa makes landfall a short distance west of Kingston, the peak winds will rip through the city, and the storm surge will devastate the coastline.”
FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray is in Kingston as the island prepares for the storm and spoke to an official on Sunday morning about the impending disaster.
Jamaica’s Minister of Labor and Social Security Pearnel Charles Jr. said the country is making every effort to “save lives” ahead of Hurricane Melissa’s worst impacts.
Residents on the south-central part of the island are being told to seek higher ground. Charles is also a member of parliament representing this part of the country.
FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray spoke with Jamaica’s Minister of Labor and Social Security Pearnel Charles Jr. ahead of Hurricane Melissa’s most dangerous impacts. Charles said residents in south-central Jamaica should get to higher ground with potentially catastrophic flooding to this part of the island.
“We’ve asked persons to not wait until it gets difficult to evacuate or to save you,” Charles said. “If there is ever a time to listen and to take action, this is now.”
Charles said they were already seeing storm surge in the Rocky Point area as of Sunday morning. Rocky Point is also among communities that are under the mandatory evacuation order.
A fallen Jamaica Public Service Company light pole is seen on the Sugar Man’s beach main road in Hellshire, St Catherine parish, near Portmore, as Jamaica starts to feel the effects of Hurricane Mellisa on October 26, 2025. Hurricane Melissa, already a major category 4 storm, gathered steam Sunday as it took aim at Jamaica and other parts of the Caribbean, with forecasters predicting catastrophic flooding and urging residents to seek shelter immediately. (Photo by Ricardo Makyn / AFP) (Photo by RICARDO MAKYN/AFP via Getty Images)
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“In the Rocky Point area, which is one of the areas along the southern coast, we were already seeing storm surges,” he continued. “We were already hearing the roar and the wrath of the seas.”
The last landfalling hurricane Jamaica experienced was in 2012 with Category 1 Hurricane Sandy, which caused major infrastructure damage. Melissa is forecast to make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane.
“We are looking at significant damage if this continues on this current trajectory,” Charles said.
What are the expected impacts from Hurricane Melissa?
This graphic shows the forecast rain totals from Hurricane Melissa.
(FOX Weather)
Forecasts are warning of catastrophic flooding as the storm batters Jamaica with heavy rain for days. The NHC predicts widespread rainfall totals of 15-30 inches across portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8-16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm totals of up to 40 inches possible.
And of course, there’s the potential for destructive winds.
The NHC said tropical storm conditions are now occurring in Jamaica, and destructive hurricane conditions are expected to begin Monday night or early Tuesday.
“Wind speeds atop and on the windward side of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater,” the NHC warned.
This graphic shows the forecast wind radii and storm surge from Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica.
(FOX Weather)
Cuba may see 10-15 inches of rain, with some spots reaching 20 inches as Melissa takes aim there soon.
In addition, Melissa’s massive wind field and slow crawl toward Jamaica will trigger a powerful storm surge along the southern coast of Jamaica from late Monday through Tuesday morning, with peak storm surge heights reaching 9-13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Hurricane Melissa makes landfall.
