A month ago, the chances of Coastal Carolina and Arkansas State being among the top four teams with a shot of winning the Sun Belt seemed like a long shot, at best.
And yet, we enter the second Saturday in November with that scenario.
Arkansas State is really in position to shake up the Sun Belt West race with a home game against Southern Miss on Saturday. If the Red Wolves beat Southern Miss, they will be in a three-way tie for first with the Eagles and Troy but own a win over both of them.
In the East, as dominant as James Madison looks these days, the Dukes finish out the regular season with a road trip to second-place Coastal Carolina, which trails by only a game.
Back at Sun Belt media days in New Orleans, the media had no idea what to expect from the Sun Belt this season, and the unpredictability has come true.
1. James Madison
Records: 7-1 overall, 5-0 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 1
Last week: Defeated Texas State 52-20
This week: at Marshall, 11 a.m. Saturday (ESPN2)
Extra points: There’s quite a bit of work left for the Dukes to do, beginning with Saturday’s tough road trip to Marshall. James Madison also plays Appalachian State and travels to Coastal Carolina to close out the regular season. If it runs the table, JMU has a shot at making the College Football Playoff.
2. Southern Miss
Records: 6-2 overall, 4-0 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 2
Last week: Open date
This week: at Arkansas State, 11 a.m. Saturday (ESPNU)
Extra points: The Sun Belt West race changed in a hurry. During an open date sitting at 4-0 in the league, Southern Miss watched Arkansas State go to Troy and win 23-10. Now all of a sudden, a loss in Jonesboro on Saturday means the Eagles cede the driver’s seat to the Red Wolves. Both teams have playmaking quarterbacks, so it should be an interesting matchup.
3. Coastal Carolina
Records: 5-3 overall, 4-1 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 4
Last week: Defeated Marshall 44-27
This week: vs. Georgia State, 3 p.m. Saturday (ESPN+)
Extra points: After climbing to the second spot in the Sun Belt East race, the Chanticleers enter a different phase of their comeback. Coastal has to prove it can maintain its focus against noncontenders such as Georgia State and Georgia Southern over the next two weeks. If the Chanticleers can do so, it will host James Madison with the division title on the line.
4. Arkansas State
Records: 5-4 overall, 4-1 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 7
Last week: Defeated Troy 23-10
This week: vs. Southern Miss, 11 a.m. Saturday (ESPNU)
Extra points: It’s pretty hard to explain what’s going on with the Red Wolves. Two weeks ago, Arkansas State had two 100-yard rushers. In beating first-place Troy on the road last week, those two backs combined for just 48 yards but the Red Wolves won by two touchdowns. The Arkansas State defense struggled early in the season but limited Troy to 187 total yards. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor stood out with 247 yards passing and two touchdowns.
5. Troy
Records: 6-3 overall, 4-1 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 3
Last week: Lost at Arkansas State 23-10
This week: Open date
Extra points: Troy rushed for only 21 yards on 34 attempts in last week’s loss to Arkansas State, when sacks were accounted for. The Trojans offensive line yielded nine sacks for minus-62 yards. The Troy defense allowed only 50 yards on 33 carries. Suddenly, Troy’s prospects don’t look as good with games at Old Dominion and at Southern Miss still left on the schedule.
6. Old Dominion
Records: 6-3 overall, 3-2 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 6
Last week: Defeated UL-Monroe 31-6
This week: Open date
Extra points: The Monarchs jumped on the Warhawks 24-0 by halftime in collecting 391 yards while limiting UL-Monroe to 293 yards. Quarterback Colton Joseph threw for 231 yards and also ran for 72 more and three touchdowns. It’s a long shot at this point, but Old Dominion’s hopes in the East aren’t quite dead. The Monarchs have a favorable schedule with Troy at home and the two Georgia schools.
7. Marshall
Records: 4-4 overall, 2-2 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 5
Last week: Lost at Coastal Carolina 44-27
This week: vs. James Madison, 11 a.m. Saturday (ESPN2)
Extra points: The Marshall offense has been potent all season long. The problem is James Madison is scoring lots of points lately, too, so the Herd may be facing the Dukes at the wrong time. A huge upset this week would reinvigorate Marshall’s hopes in the East race. The Herd are looking at two straight road games after this task.
8. UL
Records: 3-6 overall, 2-3 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 10
Last week: Defeated South Alabama 31-22
This week: vs. Texas State, 4 p.m. Saturday (ESPN+)
Extra points: The Cajuns almost had a walk in the park in Mobile, Alabama, after building a 31-7 lead after their first drive in the third quarter. But the defense blinked and South Alabama was 1 yard away from getting to an onside kick attempt for a chance to kick a field goal and win. Instead, the UL defense delivered a goal-line stand. Now the defense must figure out a way to limit the potent Texas State offense.
9. Texas State
Records: 3-5 overall, 0-4 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 9
Last week: Lost to James Madison 52-20
This week: at UL, 4 p.m. Saturday (ESPN+)
Extra points: The Bobcats’ run of near misses ended with a home demolition at the hands of James Madison. Quarterback Brad Jackson put up some big numbers, but the defense gave up 511 yards to the Dukes. Texas State’s chances of leaving the conference in style are over. Now the Bobcats hope to beat UL for the first time in school history on Saturday.
10. Georgia Southern
Records: 4-5 overall, 2-3 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 12
Last week: Open date
This week: Defeated Appalachian State 25-23 on Thursday
Extra points: The Eagles quieted the crowd in Boone, North Carolina, quickly by building a 22-3 lead. Georgia Southern ran for 142 yards and threw for 352 more. JC French had another big game with 352 yards passing and a touchdown. OJ Arnold added 105 yards rushing and Marcus Sanders pitched in 127 yards and a touchdown receiving.
11. Appalachian State
Records: 4-5 overall, 1-4 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 8
Last week: Open date
This week: Lost to Georgia Southern 25-23 on Thursday
Extra points: The Mountaineers’ promising start to the Sun Belt season hasn’t lasted very long. App State gave up 25 first downs and 494 yards to Georgia Southern. The Eagles controlled the clock and did better on third down. App State quarterback AJ Swann threw for 348 yards and two scores, but it wasn’t enough.
12. UL-Monroe
Records: 3-6 overall, 1-4 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 11
Last week: Lost to Old Dominion 31-6
This week: Open date
Extra points: The good news was quarterback Aiden Armenta was back. The bad news was it didn’t provide a spark at all. ULM was 0 for 13 on third downs. The Warhawks also had flag issues with 11 penalties for 77 yards. Armenta threw for 150 yards and a touchdown. Running back Zach Palmer-Smith had a nice game with 96 yards on 18 carries, but it wasn’t enough to spark the offense.
13. South Alabama
Records: 2-7 overall, 1-4 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 13
Last week: Lost to UL 31-2
This week: Open date.
Extra points: The Jaguars’ lost season took another hit in Saturday’s home loss to the Cajuns, and South Alabama is out of the running for a bowl berth. A second-half comeback attempt got the Jags to 165 yards rushing and 203 passing, including a 64-yard TD pass, but it wasn’t enough.
14. Georgia State
Records: 1-7 overall, 0-4 Sun Belt
Previous rank: 14
Last week: Open date
This week: at Coastal Carolina, 3 p.m. Saturday (ESPN+)
Extra points: It’s hard to imagine the Panthers losing to James Madison only 14-7, but that did happen earlier this season. Georgia State could not build on that encouraging performance. All the Panthers can do is play spoiler, beginning with Saturday’s road trip to Coastal.
Prediction
Texas State 34, UL 27
These two teams have taken different paths to try to achieve victory. Texas State is averaging 470.9 yards per game while giving up 418.1. The Cajuns are averaging 340.8 yards per game while giving up 396.4. UL has forced 12 turnovers this season while the Bobcats have three interceptions and no fumble recoveries. The only parallel is both sport dual-threat quarterbacks. The UL defense hasn’t been able to get off the field against lesser offenses than Texas State, and the Bobcats want to get at least one win against UL before leaving the Sun Belt.
