In a stacked bottom half of the Paris Masters draw, Jannik Sinner will bid for a semifinal spot at the expense of Ben Shelton on Friday. Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev will renew their extensive rivalry.
(5) Ben Shelton vs. (2) Jannik Sinner
Sinner briefly looked vulnerable during his third-round match at the Rolex Paris Masters on Thursday night, clearly not feeling well in the first set against Francisco Cerundolo. Still, it seems like nothing can stop the second-ranked Italian these days. He managed to scrape past Cerundolo 7-5, 6-1 and is now 15-1 this fall (including two wins at the Six Kings Slam exhibition) with titles in Beijing and Vienna. Sinner preceded Thursday’s result with a 6-4, 6-2 victory over Zizou Bergs.
Up next for the 24-year-old is one of his most familiar foes on tour. Shelton won their first-ever showdown in a third-set tiebreaker at the Shanghai Masters, but he has now lost six in a row. They have faced each other twice this season, with Sinner prevailing 7-6(2), 6-2, 6-2 in the Australian Open semifinals and 7-6(2), 6-4, 6-4 in the Wimbledon quarters. Shelton is once again looking like his real self on the heels of a U.S. Open shoulder injury, as the seventh-ranked American ousted Flavio Cobolli and Andrey Rublev in straight sets earlier this week to clinch a spot in the Nitto ATP Finals. Unlike Cerundolo, Shelton is capable of taking full advantage if his opponent is anything less than 100 percent. Assuming Sinner feels good, though, he will likely pick up a seventh consecutive win over the left-hander.
Pick: Sinner in 2
(11) Daniil Medvedev vs. (3) Alexander Zverev
Zverev and Medvedev will be squaring off for the 22nd time in their careers on Friday. Medvedev is absolutely dominating what is one of the most prolific rivalries on the ATP Tour. The 29-year-old Russian leads the head-to-head series 14-7 and is 13-2 in their last 15 matches–including 5-0 in their last five. Two of Medvedev’s wins have come in 2025; in three sets at the ATP 500 in Halle and 6-3, 6-3 in the Beijing quarterfinals.
It’s pretty obvious why this matchup is so terrible for Zverev. The third-ranked German loves playing long, passive rallies from well behind the baseline, and nobody is better at doing that than Medvedev. Thus Zverev has two options: lose over and over again with those tactics or leave his comfort zone and get aggressive–which generally results in too many errors. With the 28-year-old only in decent form right now and Medvedev in the midst of a minor resurgence, there is no reason to think that anything will change in this matchup at the Paris Masters.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
