It’s not been pretty for the Maple Leafs this fall.
October looked in some ways like so many Octobers before, but with lots more trouble brewing beneath the surface.
Who is overachieving? Who is disappointing? Who is really struggling? And who has performed decently, or just OK even?
Let’s work our way through the roster.
The overachievers
Simon Benoit: He leads the crew on defence in hits and blocked shots (tied) and, most importantly, has fared well defensively. The Leafs are giving up right around two expected five-on-five goals per 60 minutes when Benoit is out there, the stingiest mark on the team and one of the stingier marks in the league. Benoit isn’t facing the toughest competition, but he’s excelling in those minutes no less.
Matthew Knies: The minutes have spiked and so has the production — to better than a point per game in fact. Knies has already piled up 10 assists, showcasing an increase in playmaking flair. The first couple weeks were a tad sluggish, but since then, even with a split from Auston Matthews, Knies has been levelling up.
William Nylander: It speaks to how incredibly talented he is that it hasn’t felt like an awesome start for Nylander. It’s just hard to ignore the numbers and impact: Nylander is currently on pace for 133 points. He is driving the bus of the Leafs’ offence as indicated by the fact that 13 of his 15 points are primary.
John Tavares: The second oldest Leaf after Chris Tanev, Tavares is still producing like someone much younger. At 35, he’s burst out of the gate with six goals in 11 games and five multi-point outings. He joined the exclusive 500-goals club on Wednesday night, a testament to his still-fanatical commitment to the game.
The disappointing
Brandon Carlo: There have been some rough moments, particularly the lack of response to some net-front prowling which seemed to spark, at least in part, Anthony Stolarz’s outspokenness following a loss to Seattle. Carlo’s length has been helpful on the penalty kill, but the fit next to Morgan Rielly hasn’t been as comfy as last spring and Carlo has struggled at times to move pucks cleanly.
Bobby McMann: McMann has grabbed some run with the top line of late. But the offence just hasn’t been there. McMann has scored twice (with only one assist) in 11 games, one of those goals coming on opening night. He hasn’t recorded a point in his last seven outings and his physicality has tapered off some.
Auston Matthews: We know what the best version of Matthews looks like and the “standard” he was intent on recapturing this season.
This isn’t it.
Matthews has been less productive so far (0.45 goals and 0.73 points per game) than even last season when he played hurt from training camp (0.49 and 1.16). The production is one thing, which has been hurt in part by a flailing power play. Matthews hasn’t felt all that dangerous, either. A flood of goals — like the 51 (!) in 50 games he once delivered at his apparent apex — doesn’t appear imminent. Nor has he been able to impose his will on games like before.
Matthews is still pushing for the league lead in shots, but the finish simply hasn’t been there. Those inevitable goals from the mid-range have disappeared. And while he’s blocking a ton of shots, Matthews’ takeaways are down from his peak years and his giveaways are way up.
So, what’s going on here?
One possibility is that Matthews still isn’t all the way back physically. The speed and power he used to have through the neutral zone isn’t so overwhelming these days, nor, obviously, is the shot as potent.
A more clear-cut factor for the early struggles: The disappearance of Mitch Marner and the major impact that’s had on Matthews, offensively and defensively, amid a period of great instability at right wing.
Then there’s the head coach and resulting system, which, at a certain point, has to be factored in. Over four full seasons under Sheldon Keefe, and a more uptempo attack, Matthews produced at a 62-goal, 107-point pace. Through one and a half seasons under Craig Berube, and the ground-and-pound system he employs, Matthews’ 82-game pace has plummeted to 40 goals and 90 points.
It’s hard to untangle all the varying factors. It might just be a little bit of everything.
Anthony Stolarz: There was bound to be some regression for Stolarz this season, especially as he absorbed a larger load in the early going in Joseph Woll’s absence. And while Stolarz has been hung out to dry far too often, an .886 save percentage through eight starts is below expectation for the goalie the Leafs recently signed to a four-year extension. Shots that are beating him these days weren’t last season.
It’s been a tough start to the season for Anthony Stolarz. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
Chris Tanev: Maybe the most reliable player for the Leafs last season, Tanev wasn’t having the same lockdown effect before he got hurt. Opponents were generating more high-quality looks than before at five-on-five amid a bumpy start for the top pair.
Per 60 mins2025-262024-25
High-danger attempts
10.0
8.3
Expected goals
2.6
2.2
Goals
1.9
1.6
Tanev’s penalty-killing impact has waned, too.
Curiously, Tanev isn’t blocking as many shots — only seven in six games before the injury.
The Leafs are generating almost nothing offensively in his minutes, which come frequently with the Matthews line. Does the 35-year-old just need some time to get rolling? Or, more troublingly, are these the early hints of decline for the ninth-oldest defenceman in the league?
The good to just OK
Easton Cowan: It’s about expectations here. For a 20-year-old rookie playing his first games above junior, Cowan has been fine. He has three assists in eight games and has held his own physically. He has been less noticeable since his impressive debut, but right now, with all the injuries up front, the Leafs need him around.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson: The Leafs needed someone other than Morgan Rielly to deliver some offence from the back end. Ekman-Larsson was the most logical candidate and he’s delivered so far, with seven points. He and Benoit have delivered solid minutes when paired together. Will he get an opportunity on PP1 at some point?
Calle Järnkrok: Three goals in the first three games is a win for the 34-year-old after last season’s injury-plagued nightmare. And yet, the Leafs have otherwise struggled to generate offence in his minutes and, curiously, given the injuries he battled, Järnkrok’s top skating speed this fall (33 kph) is actually well shy of last season (35). He’s also hurt again.
Steven Lorentz: Continues to do Lorentz things. Plays hard, plays physically, gives the Leafs everything he has every night. The Leafs are winning the territorial battle in his minutes. Lorentz is still looking for his first goal of the season and had a scary fall in Columbus.
Jake McCabe: It felt like the usual McCabe snarl was missing there for a bit. It returned last weekend against his old Sabres team.
Unlike his partner, Tanev, the underlying defensive stuff for McCabe has actually improved from last season. That’s mighty impressive given the quality of competition he faces nightly as well as the team’s general struggles in that department early on.
Philippe Myers: The Leafs have been hit for six goals in his 59 five-on-five minutes, thanks in part to a .787 save percentage. And while there have been some messy moments next to Rielly, Myers has performed about as expected for a fill-in No. 7 defenceman.
Morgan Rielly: Things have tailed off for Rielly after a scorching start. It sure looks like he’s playing through injury after sitting out a game last week. The Leafs still generate their best offence when he’s out there. The power-play fit hasn’t been there, though, and at the other end, the Leafs are giving up a ton around their net in Rielly’s minutes. That has to improve.
Nicolas Roy: Roy has been OK so far. He clearly has the smarts and size to help the Leafs — if he’s used more, and in more suitable conditions. Berube is still sorting out what that looks like, including which wingers (Cowan and Dakota Joshua of late) to pair with him.
The really struggling
Max Domi: The Leafs have been scored on 12 times in 11 games when he’s been on the ice. And that’s not just about goaltending. Some of the juiciest opportunities, especially off the rush, have transpired after questionable decision-making defensively and with the puck by the team’s fifth-highest-paid forward. Those issues would be more tolerable if there was some offence supporting it. But it wasn’t until garbage time on Wednesday night that Domi nabbed his first assist of the season. He does have three goals, including two in a win this week over Calgary. Berube has offered unwavering support. Domi’s game hasn’t yet flourished under, or fit with, the stylings of the current head coach.
Dakota Joshua: Joshua scored in back-to-back games last week and has been crunching foes a little more often of late. Yet, there have been more nights than not when he’s not been noticeable. His minutes often tell that story: Joshua has drawn only nine minutes in two of the first 11 games. He’s averaging less than 12 minutes a night, third fewest among Leaf regulars up front.
Matias Maccelli: There have been moments where the vision and playmaking pops. But mostly he’s looked ill-suited to the top-six positioning he’s been granted so far. Domi, Joshua and Maccelli combine to eat just over $10 million in cap space. The Leafs aren’t getting enough value from that bunch.
Maccelli hasn’t been able to capitalize on prominent slotting in the Leafs lineup. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
Cayden Primeau: The Leafs took a chance on Primeau as a temporary backup in Woll’s absence, and while he did win two of his first three starts, he surrendered 13 goals along the way. His .838 save percentage — coupled with his .884 career save percentage before the season — points to a goalie who’s not up to facing NHL competition.
Nick Robertson: He picked up a couple garbage-time points late in Thursday’s loss in Columbus. Before that, he had one goal and one assist in his first nine games and despite continually high effort, continues to look like an ill fit for this team and head coach.
N/A: Sammy Blais, Dakota Mermis, Joseph Woll, Scott Laughton
—Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, NHL EDGE, Puck Pedia, and Evolving Hockey
