COLUMBUS, Ohio — Just six days after winning the national championship, news broke that Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles was leaving.
It wasn’t a complete shock because Knowles had been linked to other jobs, but his choice to take a $3 million contract at Big Ten rival Penn State left a bad taste in the mouths of people around Columbus.
Penn State was gearing up to make a run for a national championship of its own this season, while Ohio State was preparing to defend its title. Add in preseason top-three rankings for both, and this Saturday’s matchup at Ohio Stadium looked like it would be one of the most highly anticipated games of the year.
Much has changed, of course, including the firing of James Franklin at Penn State amid a disappointing season in Happy Valley. But despite Penn State’s 3-4 record, Saturday’s game (noon ET, Fox) still has the full attention of Ohio State coach Ryan Day and his top-ranked team. And it’s not just because of Knowles.
“We know that this is one of the top 10 or five teams in the country,” Day said. “I don’t know that there’s many teams that have more talent than Penn State has.”
Knowles’ return can’t help but be one of the top storylines. He was the defensive coordinator at Ohio State for three years and helped turn around a struggling defense, culminating in the national title. That part Day will always remember and respect.
But the two haven’t communicated since Knowles left.
“Like any relationship when it breaks off, sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad, but there really hasn’t been any communication,” Day said. “He did a great job when he was here. He helped us win a national championship, but we left it at that. It was abrupt, but we respect the work he did when he was here.”
Day said Knowles leaving to join a rival team is a lot like the NFL.
“I think it goes back to how college football and how it’s changed, the money and all of that. We’re seeing things you’re not used to,” Day said. “We try not to take those things personally, but we are human.”
On the field, Day will be tasked with attacking a coordinator who knows him and his roster well. Ohio State is also familiar with Knowles’ defensive scheme and will be expecting some confusing concepts on the field.
“He will have some curveballs, he always does,” Day said. “We’ll have to identify those early on and go from there.”
Ohio State searching for big plays in run game
Day doesn’t seem as concerned about the Ohio State run game as many fans are.
The Buckeyes are averaging 151 yards per game but have struggled the past two games, tallying just 102 yards per game against Illinois and Wisconsin. For context, the Buckeyes averaged 166 yards last season with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins leading the backfield.
The lack of explosive plays in the run game has been a concern. Ohio State has just four runs over 20 yards or more on the ground this season, a mark that has the Buckeyes ranked No. 119 nationally. It had 18 last season. That drop is due to a lack of execution across the board, Day said.
“In the bye week, we’ve looked at what we’ve done well and what we need to do to get better at,” Day said. “It’s been good, but has it been great? No, it hasn’t been great; we can get better.”
Ohio State has to block better, but it’s also running against an eight-man front on 40 percent of its runs, the 10th highest mark in the country. Those runs account for an average of 4.6 yards per carry, 51st nationally, according to TruMedia.
The heavy boxes opened up the run-pass option (RPO) game against Wisconsin, but when it comes to the ground game specifically, there have been breakdowns in blocking. Day has also stressed to his running back room the importance of making a play downfield.
“I tell the running backs, the first 4 yards are for the team, the rest you have to trust your God-given ability,” Day said.
Freshman Bo Jackson and West Virginia transfer CJ Donaldson will lead Ohio State’s running back rotation against a Penn State defense that has given up 200 rushing yards per game during its four-game losing streak. For the season, the Nittany Lions have allowed 12 runs of at least 20 yards.
Freshman Bo Jackson leads Ohio State with 433 rushing yards. ( Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Day believes Penn State is a top-5 team
With Penn State on a four-game losing streak, Franklin fired and quarterback Drew Allar out for the season with an injury, many people have written off the Nittany Lions.
Day is not one of them.
“When you looked at this game a few months ago, it was a matchup game — that has not changed,” Day said. “It’s the same players, other than the quarterback. … These are very, very talented players. They have a lot of NFL players, and we know they have good coaches, so all of that is going to lead to a huge matchup game for us.”
For most of Day’s tenure, Ohio State has been able to avoid upsets against unranked teams. Its only loss to an unranked team came last season when it lost 13-10 to Michigan. Much of that success comes down to the way Ohio State prepares each day. It’s expecting Penn State to try everything against it on Saturday, especially after an off week.
“They have two weeks to put together different things on offense, defense and special teams they haven’t put on the field and we know that,” Day said.
Why each rushing attack can make a difference
With Allar out, Penn State has turned to redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer. The four-star recruit from Columbus struggled in his first start at Iowa, throwing for 93 yards and two interceptions.
Penn State leaned heavily on the run game against the Hawkeyes. It handed the ball off 46 times and may operate similarly against Ohio State on Saturday.
Kaytron Allen has had a good season, tallying 612 yards and nine touchdowns, and should be the focus of Ohio State’s defensive game plan after he took on a clear lead role over the struggling Nick Singleton. The Buckeyes excel at getting teams into third-and-long situations and then unleashing Matt Patricia’s blitz schemes in creative ways. If the Buckeyes can slow down Allen, who has averaged 6.24 yards per carry, it can put Grunkemeyer into situations he doesn’t want to be in.
On the other side, Penn State has the third-worst rushing defense in the Big Ten. Most of that yardage has come in the last month, including 245 yards against Iowa.
Iowa has a better rushing attack than Ohio State, but if the Buckeyes, who had just 98 yards against Wisconsin, can establish the ground game, it could be a long day for Knowles’ defense.
That’s not to say Ohio State should play conservatively and become a run-first team, but when it does run, being efficient will be crucial.
Prediction
I tend to agree with Day that the idle week will allow Penn State to come out with some wrinkles that it has not shown all season. And though the Nittany Lions have lost four consecutive games, they’ve yet to be blown out, with each loss coming down to the final possession.
However, the more I think about this game from a pure football perspective, I can’t figure out a way the Buckeyes lose to Penn State.
The Nittany Lions showed few signs of an effective passing offense against Iowa, and running the ball on Ohio State’s defensive front hasn’t been a good plan for teams this season.
On the other side, Penn State is still banged up at linebacker, and if it can’t slow down Ohio State’s rushing attack, it may be a long day.
I’d expect Knowles to play some high shell coverages to keep Ohio State from having explosives in the passing game. Still, quarterback Julian Sayin, with his 80 percent completion rate, is comfortable throwing short to lead his team down the field.
The 20.5-point spread is much higher than anyone expected coming into the season, but Ohio State’s defense will hold Penn State in check and the offense explodes against a Penn State defense that has been a shell of its talent since the Oregon game.
Ohio State 31, Penn State 7
