The Sabres return home Saturday night for a 7 p.m. game having departed from Boston for the friendly confines of the KeyBank Center where they’ll take on the defensively stingy Capitals.
Last night’s overtime loss to the Bruins felt mighty disappointing but consider this: The Buffalo Sabres, believe it or not, are on a 111-point pace since beginning the season 0-3-0, so while losses like last night’s might feel terrible, getting a point from those overtime losses is absolutely crucial to a team’s ability to make the playoffs.
And speaking of the playoffs, the Sabres are likely to get a taste of low-scoring playoff hockey against the Capitals who are first in the league in goals against with an impressive 22 goals allowed through 10 contests this year. Goaltender Logan Thompson is on fire for the Caps with a .939 save percentage in his seven games, but with the Capitals playing tonight against the Islanders, the Sabres may get the advantage of playing against backup goalie Charlie Lindgren who has a much more modest .882 save percentage in three games.
At the other end of the ice, Lindy Ruff has a big decision to make in net as to whether Colten Ellis or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will play in this one after Alex Lyon played a pedestrian game against the Bruins. Luukkonen’s season debut against the Maple Leafs last Saturday was, to be kind, a mediocre performance as he let in four goals on 23 shots. The third goal in particular was one that fans have seen many times from UPL in his 156 games as a Sabres: a weak floater above the glove hand that UPL saw coming from the point.
Colten Ellis, conversely, had a stellar debut performance having bested Detroit way back on October 22nd. One would think this game is Ellis’s if all things were equal, but of course, all things are not equal in the salary cap world. Luukkonen is only in the second year of a 5-year contract that will pay him an average of $4.75 million per season until 2029, meaning the Sabres have ample motivation to get him playing good hockey for them. That calculus might not be as important to Ruff, though, as he is already in the last year of his contract and winning – rather than planning for the long-term future – is likely his motivation.
And if it’s true that winning tomorrow’s game is the single most important thing to Ruff, then playing Ellis tomorrow makes the most sense based on the (admittedly small) amount of data available to him. Yes, UPL sitting behind not only Alex Lyon, but also a goalie in Ellis with only one career NHL game is certainly not a good look for management, nor is the fact that the principal piece of the Sam Reinhart trade – Devin Levi – is still in Rochester, but the Sabres really shouldn’t care about that at this point.
Playing Ellis also offers the Sabres a way out of this situation. If he has a bad game, the optics of waiving him in favor of keeping Luukkonen would be greatly improved. In any case, and which ever goalie plays this game, they will be going against one of the most anemic scoring teams in the NHL, as Washington sits 31st in the league with 27 goals scored through 10 games.
Tom Wilson leads the way for the Caps with 10 goals, while Alex Ovechkin has only managed to find the back of the net twice so far this year. That, as we all know, can change very quickly if the Great 8 is allowed to set up on the powerplay and tee off on one-timers, so it will be paramount for the Sabres to keep out of the penalty box as much as possible. While the Capitals currently have the 20th best powerplay in the league, you can only hold Ovechkin off the scoresheet there for so long.
The bigger problem for the Sabres will be to find a way to generate enough offense to overcome the stifling play of the Capitals. They’re still not getting enough offense from Rasmus Dahlin who only has one goal in 11 games, and while Tage Thompson has chipped in a bit more with four goals, he still has another gear he can find.
So sit back with your leftover Halloween candy and enjoy what should be a tightly contested, low-scoring game.
