Spring hadn’t arrived, but a Melbourne Cup plan was already in place – follow Sir Delius.
The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained import made a huge impression in his Australian debut in May with a barnstorming finish at Doomben and validated the hype with back-to-back Group 1 wins in the Underwood Stakes and Turnbull Stakes.
Then came the dreaded news Sir Delius had failed his mandatory vet scans.
So what is Plan B for punters?
Like most years, the Caulfield Cup is again the key lead-up race.
Half Yours shot to the top of Melbourne Cup markets after winning the Caulfield Cup. It was a predictable over-reaction by bookmakers.
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The improving five-year-old was tuned up for his Caulfield Cup “grand final” and looked spectacular in the mounting yard, so there would be very little improvement – if any – left in him.
Finishing behind Half Yours, Valiant King was an unlucky third, Presage Nocturne also had the flashing light in fourth, and English raider Meydaan had a taxing run and should have finished closer than ninth.
Valiant King showed his upset performance in The Bart Cummings at big odds – his first win in 29 months and nine starts – was not a one-off.
He ran a creditable 13th in last year’s Melbourne Cup considering he was $91 – the same starting price as winner Knight’s Choice – but his incredible form turnaround makes him a top chance.
French horse Presage Nocturne will run out the 3200m.
He won the Group 3 Prix De Barbeville (3000m) in April before a pair of thirds in the Group 1 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (3100m) and Group 3 Prix Kergorlay (3000m).
Ex-Willie Mullins stablemates Vauban and Absurde will aim to win the Melbourne Cup at their third attempt each.
Vauban, now with Waterhouse and Bott, had been the more fancied of the pair the past two years but was outperformed by Absurde both times.
Absurde finished seventh behind Without A Fight in 2023 and two spots higher in fifth last year.
The Mullins stable has changed its approach this time, giving the eight-year-old a local lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup where he ran a terrific seventh.
Vauban, however, ran an underwhelming 13th in the Caulfield Cup.
This year’s Caulfield Cup field was one of the weakest in recent memory, leaving the door wide open for an international off the plane to take home the Melbourne Cup for the first time since Twilight Payment in 2020.
It is why Irish star Al Riffa is near the top of betting even though he will carry the topweight of 59kg, a weight which hasn’t been successful since 1969 when Rain Lover lugged 60.5kg.
Think Big carried 58.5kg when he went back-to-back in 1975 and legendary mare Makybe Diva was lumped with 58kg in her 2005 three-peat.
The most recent topweight wins were Gold Trip (57.5kg) in 2022 and Very Elleegant (57kg) in 2021.
So, Al Riffa has an enormous challenge ahead of him but he brings excellent overseas form, winning his past two in the Group 1 Irish St Leger (2816m) and Group 2 Curragh Cup (2816m).
Three starts ago he was runner-up in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes (2405m) behind global superstar Rebel’s Romance.
It wouldn’t surprise if the other first-up raiders – Furthur (England), Chevelier Rose (Japan), Flatten The Curve (Germany) and Al Riffa’s stablemate Goodie Two Shoes (Ireland) give the Cup a shake.
The connections of Buckaroo made the right call to press on to the Melbourne Cup after nearly upsetting superstar mare Via Sistina in the Cox Plate – there’s not much better form than that.
Buckaroo had a tough run in last year’s Cup when ninth – he started at $6 – but he’s had a less busy campaign and will have plenty left in the tank.
VERNUCCIO’S TIPS
1. BUCKAROO
2. Al Riffa
3. Presage Nocturne
4. Valiant King
■ ■ ■ ■ ■
KEY FORM RACE
TURNBULL STAKES >> Flemington, 2000m, Good 3, October 4
This was a dominant win by Sir Delius but the vets have since intervened and deemed him an injury risk in the Melbourne Cup. Half Yours had the perfect tune up for the Caulfield Cup with the best closing sectionals of the race. Deakin was under pressure at the 400m but kept fighting. Middle Earth stayed with the pack after blundering the start.
THE BART CUMMINGS >> Flemington, 2520m, Good 3, October 4
Gilded Water went to the front from a wide barrier and then bolted under Jamie Melham, opening up a seven-length midrace lead. That set the race up for Valiant King, who charged home for a soft win after taking over the lead at the 100m. Torranzino kept grinding away on-speed and passed a tiring Gilded Water 25m from the post.
HERBERT POWER STAKES >> Caulfield, 2400m, Good 4, October 11
Smokin’ Romans crossed from a wide barrier and led at a moderate tempo but was under siege at the 600m when Post Impressionist made a move. Scary worked home well but was tightened for room in the straight. Whiskey On The Hill was the unlucky runner. Brayden Star held off Plymouth to win a modest race.
CAULFIELD CUP >> Caulfield, 2400m, Good 4, October 18
Jamie Melham remained composed and patient to perfectly time her run on Half Yours when Adelaide River bolted at the midway stage. River Of Stars ran a big race with an economical run, while Valiant King and Presage Nocturne were strong late. Absurde will benefit from his run, Meydaan sat wide, Ciaron Maher-trained pair Zardozi and Middle Earth were both dour and can improve.
GEELONG CUP >> Geelong, 2400m, Soft 7, October 23
Gilded Water led as expected but his jockey had him under control at a steady tempo. Torranzino stalked the speed and just like in The Bart Cummings, chased down Gilded Water late. The last Geelong Cup winner to salute in the Melbourne Cup was Dunaden in 2011, a year after Americain completed the double.
MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP >> The Valley, 2040m, Good 3, October 24
Onesmoothoperator found himself shuffled back to last when the speed slackened midrace before he swept around the field for a comfortable win ahead of an unlucky Athabascan who found traffic behind tiring horses and Scary, who made a run four-deep. The pace was quick early which told late on favourite Smokin’ Romans, Brayden Star and Post Impressionist.
COX PLATE >> The Valley, 2040m, Good 4, October 25
Buckaroo stalked his stablemate Via Sistina as soon as they jumped but was unable to reel in the superstar mare in a rousing finish. Buckaroo hasn’t won this prep but has placed in all four runs and is in peak form. Horses coming out of the Cox Plate have a great record in the Melbourne Cup this century with Gold Trip (2022) and Verry Elleegant (2021) successful in recent years.
BENDIGO CUP >> Bendigo, 2400m, Good 3, October 29
Arapaho was the only runner guaranteed a start in the Melbourne Cup and wasn’t a winning chance back in the field off a slow tempo, finishing eighth. The race was dominated by the frontrunners with winner Sayedaty Sadaty sitting behind leader Quietness before pouncing. Last year Knight’s Choice went on to win the Melbourne Cup after finishing fifth in the Bendigo Cup, and Arapaho did win the Sydney Cup over 3200m in the autumn.
Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2005: Watch the key lead-up races
