Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction, pick for CFB Week 10 on Saturday 11/01/25

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for CFB Week 10’s game between the Troy Trojans and the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

Homecoming banners ripple at The Vet, and the building crackles like a transformer warming to life. Troy arrives with five straight wins, a steadier heartbeat after October’s tests, and first-place leverage in the West. Arkansas State rides three straight, shoulders squared after flipping Georgia Southern with a surging second half and rediscovered trench bite. ESPNU lights frame a divisional hinge with bowl math buzzing, special-teams field position looming, and fourth-quarter composure on trial. The air carries revenge, too, after last year’s 34–31 in Jonesboro, and both sidelines feel that undertow tightening cadence. Below is my prediction for CFB Week 10’s Saturday night football game between the Troy Trojans and the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The contours favor Troy’s defense against Arkansas State’s engine. Arkansas State scores 23.6 points per game on 377.6 yards, leaning 235.4 through the air and 142.3 on the ground. Jaylen Raynor, quarterback, has thrown for 1,876 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions, then added 326 rushing yards and seven scores. He’s dynamic when clean, but he’s absorbed twenty-two sacks, and that protection stress meets Troy’s best card. Troy allows 189.1 passing yards per game with only nine passing touchdowns conceded and stacks pressure with twenty-three sacks. Donnie Smith, edge rusher, leads with six sacks, and Troy has produced seven takeaways across the last two games, with four defensive touchdowns this season.

Troy’s offense brings quieter volume but sharper finishing. The Trojans score 29.1 points per game on 341.4 yards, splitting 207.8 passing and 133.6 rushing. The profile pops on efficiency: one point per 11.7 yards, a finishing rate that outruns raw yardage. Tucker Kilcrease, quarterback, sits at 1,234 passing yards with nine touchdowns against three interceptions, then adds four rushing scores. He hit 16-of-24 for 180 yards last week and powered two red-zone keepers for touchdowns. Tray Taylor, wide receiver, leads with 346 receiving yards and three scores and threatens vertically at 19.2 yards per catch.

The matchup stress for Arkansas State’s defense stays loud and numerical. The Red Wolves allow 434.4 yards per game, a soft underbelly split into 236.9 passing and 195.6 rushing. Opponents complete 69.6% against that secondary and rip 5.2 yards per rush, which layers selection stress for any coordinator. The run fits have leaked for 1,565 rushing yards across eight games, and the pass rush holds at thirteen sacks with four interceptions. Troy doesn’t need volume to puncture that; it needs on-schedule downs and the same third-down clarity that went 9-for-13 against Louisiana.

Troy has scored 31 or more in four straight and forced a three-and-out on 30.7% of opponent possessions. The Trojans’ penalty discipline stays clean at just 5.5 per game, which preserves field position and red-zone access. Arkansas State’s three wins built composure, and the Georgia Southern tape carried juice: 85 plays, 482 yards, 11-for-18 on third down, and 266 rushing yards at 5.5 a carry. That surge meets Troy’s sturdier endgame identity and a pass defense that compresses windows before the ball leaves the hand.

Arkansas State vs. Troy pick, best bet

Here’s the counter, and it’s real. Arkansas State just mashed Georgia Southern on the ground and held the Eagles to 3.1 yards per rush. The Red Wolves can shorten games with carries, then use Raynor’s legs as a red-zone equalizer. Troy allowed 184 rushing yards at 4.4 a carry to Louisiana, and the season ledger sits at 175.0 rushing yards allowed per game. If Arkansas State builds second-and-five all night, it can keep the sticks breathing and mute the pass rush.

I respect that path, but the arithmetic still favors Troy. Arkansas State needs chunk runs to stay ahead of schedule, yet long fields expose that 28.5 points allowed per game reality. Troy’s defense sits second in the league in total defense at 364.1 yards and scoring defense at 24.3 points, and it layers pressure with coverage integrity. Raynor’s twenty-two sacks intersect directly with Troy’s edge speed and simulated looks, particularly on third down. If Arkansas State faces third-and-seven rather than third-and-three, the Trojans convert pressure into punts. Red-zone texture also leans Troy: Arkansas State scores on 80.0% of trips while Troy’s defense stands 80.0% in that same metric, a wash that rewards the side finishing drives with touchdowns rather than field goals.

Troy’s 6–2 record against the spread marries with five straight covers. Arkansas State counters with five covers in eight and six straight unders that tell a pace story. The spread lives around a touchdown for a reason: Troy’s efficiency versus Arkansas State’s yards-allowed bloat and completion-rate bleed. Home has mattered here, and Homecoming heightens everything that lives in noise: cadence, communication, and free yards.

I’m laying the -8.5 with Troy because the profiles stack decisively: pass defense stinginess, pressure production, finishing efficiency, and cleaner penalty math. Arkansas State’s three-game rise gives backbone, but the yards-per-carry allowed, the completion rate conceded, and the sack ledger collide with Troy’s exact strengths. I expect Troy to control third downs, win the hidden yards, and separate after halftime.

Final score: Troy 31, Arkansas State 20.

Best bet: Troy -8.5 (-110) vs. Arkansas State

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