Tennis betting tips: Moselle Open and Vanda Pharmaceuticals Hellenic Championship

Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP tournaments in Metz and Athens and has four picks, ranging from 16/1 to 50/1.

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Cameron Norrie in the Moselle Open at 20/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Corentin Moutet in the Moselle Open at 16/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Fabian Marozsan in the Hellenic Championship at 25/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Kamil Majchrzak in the Hellenic Championship at 50/1 (bet365, William Hill, BoyleSports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Moselle Open

• Metz, France (indoor hard)

This is a strange week on the ATP Tour.

At a time when many are playing on fumes, we didn’t used to have tournaments between Paris and the ATP Finals but now we have two.

Organisers hope that the Race to Turin – the ‘league standings’ which decide who will play at those ATP Finals – is still alive. For them, the more players still involved in the Race, the better – those in contention tend to enter these events, albeit they don’t always play.

Take Daniil Medvedev. He was due to be the second seed in Metz but his ATP Finals hopes went up in smoke in Paris on Friday and he duly withdrew. It would be no surprise were third seed Alexander Bublik to follow suit after his semi-final defeat in Paris.

The tournament director will desperately be hoping that Felix Auger-Aliassime doesn’t win the Paris Masters final on Sunday. If he does, he’s near-certain to pull out, too.

The fact he’s playing Jannik Sinner in that match makes it likely he will have to turn up in Metz and, if he does lose on Sunday, FAA will need to make the semis here to guarantee his place in the Turin field.

At time of writing, the Canadian is the 10/3 favourite but that is possibly the worst bet of the season as I simply don’t see how he’ll play in Saturday’s final given the ATP Finals start on Sunday.

As already shown, he’s not certain to compete. Secondly, an early loss for his Turin rival, Lorenzo Musetti, in Athens would seal his spot at those ATP Finals and that could easily result in his withdrawal.

And even if Musetti keeps on winning, victory in Thursday’s quarter-finals would seal FAA’s spot, in which case I very much doubt he’ll be around for the semis and final here.

In short, he has to be taken on.

At time of writing, doubts also surround Bublik’s participation. Even if he does show up, I’m not sure how motivated he’ll be and a price of 5/1 doesn’t appeal.

So, who could go well this week?

Well, those from the host nation will be motivated and, like so many of the French tournaments, Metz – which isn’t on the 2026 ATP Tour schedule – has often been won by the home players.

Last season Benjamin Bonzi claimed the title, 2023 saw Ugo Humbert triumph and look long term and you see that 11 of the last 15 editions have been won by Frenchmen.

What is worth noting at this stage is that the surface was changed last year from Slamcourt to Polytan and that resulted in slower conditions, which suited Bonzi.

That rather puts me off two Frenchmen in the top half, who have been in good form in the second half of the season.

Adrian Mannarino and Arthur Rinderknech were both considered – the former particularly enjoys playing indoors – but I’m going to side with a player who prefers a little bit of pace off in terms of conditions and that’s CAM NORRIE.

Confidence should be flowing after last week’s victory over world number one Carlos Alcaraz at the Paris Masters.

His run ended in the following round at the hands of Valentin Vacherot, although the Monegasque was highly complimentary of Norrie’s performance in defeat.

As seventh seed, Norrie looks well placed to take advantage of the expected withdrawal (at some stage) of Auger-Aliassime.

Norrie made the final here last year which is a strong positive for potential backers as it shows he was still fully motivated in his final tournament of the season.

I’d expect that to be the case again and I’ll back him at 20/1.

In the bottom half, it’s back to the French theory and CORENTIN MOUTET looks worth a try.

He’s been in decent form in recent times, reaching the final in Almaty, semis in Hangzhou and beating the in-form Medvedev in Vienna. He also took a set off Alex Zverev in Beijing. That’s a strong run at this time of year.

The slower conditions should allow him to get into the rallies and play his mix-it-up style of tennis which is capable of baffling many.

Moutet impressed here 12 months ago when he made the last four before losing to Norrie.

All things considered, he’s looks a decent price at 16/1.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Hellenic Championship

• Athens, Greece (indoor hard)

We have a new stop on the ATP Tour this week with Athens having replaced Belgrade on the schedule.

They will play on a Laykold indoor hardcourt which organisers tell me is considered ‘medium-fast’ by the ITF’s Court Pace Rating scheme. The tour’s common Dunlop ball will also be used.

No ‘course form’ to go on makes things slightly tricky from a punting perspective but what we do know is who the headline acts are.

Novak Djokovic leads the field.

He’s already qualified for next week’s ATP Finals so it’s a little surprising he’s involved here, although the fact he’s recently set up home in the city offers some explanation.

Still, rumours abound that he’ll opt not to play in Turin – if that decision comes early this week, then that will finalise the ATP Finals field.

While it’s hard to be sure, he’s presumably using this week to decide whether he’s going to play in Turin.

He starts as favourite but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen the 38-year-old looking fully fit. Last time out, he looked well short of it when losing to Valentin Vacherot in Shanghai.

That said, he’s managed to struggle through plenty of matches and the fact is that he’s made the semis or better in his last five tournaments with his last early loss coming in Madrid in April. Interestingly, the last time he competed at this ‘250’ level, he emerged as champion in Geneva.

Still, backing Djokovic at 17/10 this week doesn’t look great business.

Neither am I keen on Lorenzo Musetti, the other top-10 star in the draw, at a best price of 4/1.

As explained above, he’s still hoping to claim a place in the ATP Finals (at least at time of writing). All he can do is win here and hope Felix Auger-Aliassime fails to make the semis in Metz.

Of course, that means that if FAA does what he needs to in Metz – or in Sunday’s Paris final – it will render Musetti’s efforts academic.

A shock win for FAA on Sunday would likely see Musetti withdraw from this event, while you wonder how motivated he’s going to be come the back end of the tournament if Auger-Aliassime has already pipped him in the Race to Turin.

It makes better sense to me to look for alternatives and in the top half, FABIAN MAROZSAN has shown some encouraging signs of late.

He was a quarter-finalist in Beijing, losing to eventual champion Jannik Sinner, and also Almaty. There, he beat Brandon Nakashima – a potential quarter-final foe this week – before losing to Daniil Medvedev, again the eventual champ.

In between, there was a final-set tie-break defeat to world number four Taylor Fritz in Shanghai.

Marozsan has made quarter-finals in Belgrade and Sofia in this week in the past two seasons which suggests he’s not one to throw in the towel at this time of the season.

OK, it may turn out to be a bit too quick for the Hungarian – I didn’t see any of qualifying on Saturday and the stats were something of a mixed bag – but at 25/1 I think he’s worth chancing to small stakes.

In the bottom half, KAMIL MAJCHRZAK is another with potential at a big price.

I’ve written before about how the Pole has tended to go well in slicker conditions.

Indeed, he made the last 16 at Wimbledon this summer. He’s since beaten Karen Khachanov at the US Open and won a hardcourt Challenger in his homeland.

More recently, he won a couple of rounds in Shanghai and his last three defeats have all been in really tight matches.

He lost 7-5 in the third to Seb Korda in Stockholm, 7-6 in the decider to Ben Shelton in Basel and fell the same way to Jesper de Jong in Paris last week.

Basically, he’s not been missing by much and he’ll have been able to take positives out of those displays, despite the ultimate results.

Majchrzak will open against Miomir Kecmanovic, who has won just three of his last 10 matches. If that is won, third seed Luciano Darderi – not a man renowned for success on indoor hardcourts – would follow.

Alex Popyrin (lost his last four) is the other seed in the quarter and, frankly, it doesn’t look that strong.

Taking a small slice of the 50/1 on offer is the advice.

After last week’s woe when our 80/1 pick lost in the semis, maybe there is still time for a big-priced winner…

Posted at 0935 GMT on 02/11/25

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