Who will be MSU’s breakout star? How far will the Spartans go in March Madness? Is an NCAA Tournament title still possible for Tom Izzo? The journey starts Monday.
Top facts about MSU head basketball coach Tom Izzo
Discover key facts about Tom Izzo, the legendary head basketball coach at Michigan State University, his contributions, achievements, and impact on the sport.
EAST LANSING – Tom Izzo hopes his fourth decade leading Michigan State basketball ends the same way Year 30 did.
With another milestone championship. And then some.
After going 30-7 and winning the Big Ten by three games for Izzo’s record-tying 11th regular-season crown, the Spartans enter the 2025-26 season with a core nucleus back from his 11th Elite Eight quad.
Plenty of questions remain after offseason attrition and additions that could change the dynamic – for better or worse – as MSU prepares to open the season against Colgate at 7 p.m. Monday, Nov. 3, at Breslin Center (BTN+).
We answer some burning questions, including picking a breakout player, best- and worst-case scenarios, a final record and national championship pick.
MSU basketball best-case scenario
The Spartans’ Big Four of Jeremy Fears Jr., Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper reward Izzo’s faith in the growth and cohesion they showed last season by shouldering the increased responsibilities to score, defend and lead. But it won’t be easy – like every schedule their Hall of Fame coach assembles and eventually laments.
The Spartans, who lost on the road to No. 4 Connecticut in exhibition action, get plenty of early-season measuring stick games.
It starts with a visit from John Calipari and Arkansas on Nov. 8, a bout with No. 9 Kentucky in the Champions Classic on Nov. 18 in New York, No. 25 North Carolina on Nov. 27 at the Fort Myers Tip-Off and a marquee test at Breslin against No. 5 Duke on Dec. 6. That game is sandwiched between two Big Ten games at home against Iowa and at Penn State. Going 9-2 in nonconference action will set the tone for the Big Ten race ahead.
It wasn’t easy last year, even in winning the title by three games, but the conference shapes up to be far more difficult this season with roster fluctuation. The Spartans will contend into the final weeks but come up short of repeating by going 15-5, then make a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament and easily extend Izzo’s record NCAA Tournament streak to 28 straight appearances.
If Fears can show the demanding leadership Izzo believes he possesses along with the stamina and health to play 30-plus minutes a game, and if Carr can emerge as a superstar who can make jumpers, MSU can get back to another Elite Eight and finish 30-8.
MSU basketball worst-case scenario
MSU struggles to improve its problematic perimeter shooting after losing Jase Richardson and Tre Holloman.
Kur Teng, Fears and Carr don’t develop as consistent 3-point threats, and transfers Trey Fort and Divine Ugochukwu don’t provide the strong defense Holloman, Richardson and Jaden Akins did in Izzo’s intricate system.
In the frontcourt, Kohler and Cooper remain as complementary instead of featured pieces. Their ability to play more of an inside-out style is critical to the Spartans taking the step Izzo thinks this group can become. And if Jesse McCulloch, Cam Ward and Jordan Scott take time to adjust in their first years of college basketball, it further hampers MSU’s depth and Izzo’s trust beyond his top group.
Most importantly, if Fears – now almost two years removed from getting shot in the upper left leg – shows physical limitations that prevent him from being a high-volume minutes point guard, the Spartans will learn how much value Holloman and Richardson provided in the ability to run the offense.
The worst-case scenario for MSU resembles most of the the four seasons prior to 2024-25 – hovering around .500 in Big Ten play, fighting to keep the NCAA streak alive and making a first-weekend exit.
Breakout player
With all his physical gifts – beyond the jaw-dropping dunks, the ability to defend on the floor and use his leaping ability to protect the rim – Carr feels like a natural to take the next step getting starter minutes. He’ll need to show the work he put in with his jump shot is tangible, and not just from 3-point range but in the midrange. The same goes for the junior’s ball-handling, which would allow his explosive traits to shine in creating for himself going to the basket.
Another player is the tough-minded, sharp-tongued Fears, who remains the engine and catalyst for the Spartans. It comes down to making enough shots for defenders to respect him from the outside, allowing him more room to penetrate the defense and either dish to bigs or convert through contact in the paint. There’s a reason Izzo continues to liken his redshirt sophomore to Mateen Cleaves – and progression beyond Fears’ pre-gunshot form could elevate MSU.
Michigan State basketball bold predictions
MSU’s final record prediction, Big Ten finish, NCAA Tournament finish and a national champion.
- MSU record: 26-11, 14-6 Big Ten.
- Big Ten finish: Third-place regular season, title game loss in Big Ten Tournament.
- Big Ten winner: Purdue.
- MSU’s NCAA Tournament finish: Reach Sweet 16.
- National champion: Duke.
Subscribe to the “Spartan Speak” podcast for new episodes on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.
